Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

What a cracking day of racing we have to look forward to at Randwick on Saturday. No less than 4 Group 1’s which include the time-honoured Doncaster & Derby. The rain has cleared, the sun is back out & the track will be in the soft/good range. The 2yo’s get things underway in The Kindergarten, I just couldn’t land on one here I was confident about, I went looking for something not coming back in trip from the Slipper etc. which most do & almost went with the resuming (6) BESKAR who is untapped however I just query what he beat on debut. I’m going to have a small throw at the debutante (11) SYLPH who has trialled twice finding the line very nicely first go before again running on the latest after getting a bit wayward cornering. Call me crazy however the other debutante (12) THALESTRIS’ trials have also been good, can hit the line however will likely need to off the wide draw giving away a start.

Numbers: 11 – 6 – 1 – 12

Suggested Bet: SYLPH EACH-WAY (small bet)/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

The Group 2 Adrian Knox is one of the main lead-ups to next week’s Oaks, highly doubt the Oaks winner goes around here however you never know. (9) POLYMNIA relished the rise in distance & easier opposition when winning her maiden at Hawkesbury, they took her there for an ‘easy kill’ & that’s exactly what they got with Zac Lloyd having a lapful of horse looking left & right half-way down the straight, she could have doubled the 3.6L winning margin. 2000m today no problem, she just looks to be peaking at the right time. (11) MISS ALEXIS didn’t really enjoy The Valley however back on the bigger track last time she was nice & strong late, beautifully bred this trip is perfect for her. (6) BELLE DETELLE & (2) INEVITABLE TRUTH have definite claims.

Numbers: 9 – 11 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet: POLYMNIA TO WIN/Saver MISS ALEXIS.

RACE 3

The Group 2 Chairman’s at 2600m is the main lead up to next weeks 2 mile Sydney Cup. (3) ALALCANCE comfortably beat the majority of these in the Manion Cup at Rosehill 2 weeks back leading throughout. There’s no doubt he’s come back in great order however just keep in mind he was able to dictate out front on that occasion scoring some very leisurely sectional splits plus he’s yet to be tried out to this longer trip. Having said all that he’s a Waterhouse/Bott stayer which suggests he’s going to be extremely hard to get past whatever the tempo may be, if $3 or better I’ll side with him. Both (2) ATHABASCAN & (11) STRATHAY were best against the tempo in that race, I’ll include both plus the William Haggas stayer (1) DESERT HERO, just can’t afford to underestimate anything from that yard.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 11 – 1

Suggested Bet: ALALCANCE TO WIN ($3.00 or better).

RACE 4

I’ve been a (2) SWIFTFALCON fan for some time now having been in his corner at least his last 4 starts however there comes a time when you just have to let go. Considering he’s a short-priced favourite here suggests today mightn’t be the right time to jump ship however I do have serious concerns with him dropping back from 2000m to 1600m. Having said that this field bar (1) EVAPORATE is a huge step down in class. (1) EVAPORATE wasn’t far from Mr Brightside & Tom Kitten in The Futurity two back before heading across the ditch to tackle the rich NZ slot race in which he was shuffled back prior to the turn yet still able to run home strongly & clock in second. He rises to the mile a trip he’s won twice at & for that reason I’m leaning his way. Long gap to the next best (8) BRIGADINE GIRL.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet: EVAPORATE TO WIN/Box up with #2 in exotics.

RACE 5

The rich Country Championships Final will be a super competitive affair, horses from all over the state will do battle for big money. Very hard to tip against (1) GALLANT STAR who beat all bar the winner in this very race last year after doing a ton of work on a heavy (8) track. Whilst his soft/heavy record is a good one his drier track stats are even better & that’s the surface he’s going to get today. His record at the track is a good one, he bolted in first up & draws a gate, plenty of ticks. The Matt Dunn stablemates (3) TRIBECA STAR & (8) FUKUBANA can definitely figure in the finish, the former couldn’t get a clear crack at any stage in the straight last start & should have finished a lot closer, both can find the line strongly.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet: Exotics – Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

First of the Group 1’s is the Sires Produce for the 2yo’s. I’ve narrowed this one down to (2) WODETON & (3) VINROCK & with the latter bringing the Victorian form line they are difficult to line up. To be honest I’d be backing both as should either win you’ll end up in front however I can’t sit on the fence when it comes to tipping. I’ll lean to (2) WODETON as he’s clearly come through stronger races including the Golden Slipper. (3) VINROCK will race forward & is proven out to the 1400m trip. (1) RIVELLINO isn’t out of it by any means, he weaved home well in the Slipper however on the line wasn’t making any ground on (2) WODETON, gut feel is he may be a level below the other pair.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: WODETON & VINROCK TO WIN.

RACE 7

The Group 1 T. J. Smith for the sprinters, always a great spectacle, highly competitive, there’s probably 6 runners (at least) I could side with! I’m looking for the track to get back to something near to good by the time they run this race & if so I’m with (6) SUNSHINE IN PARIS each-way. Yes, her gate isn’t ideal however this isn’t a bad starting point & if able to gain cover in running she will finish off hard. Held up when resuming she should have finished closer & has been kept fresh going into this 4 weeks between outings. (5) BRIASA was huge in The Galaxy charging down the outside, he’s going to be a lot closer in the run today. (2) JIMMYSTAR is capable of running over the lot of them late whilst (7) JOLIESTAR can’t be left out. (1) OVERPASS flies fresh & may run them all ragged? Could have still missed the winner…

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: SUNSHINE IN PARIS EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The Group 1 Doncaster is an absolute cracker, a full field will go around in one of Australia’s most time-honoured & prestigious Handicaps. Note two of the major lead ups The Canterbury Stakes & George Ryder were both run softly suiting the leaders, highly doubt that will be the case here. It’s a lottery, I’m sticking with (3) TOM KITTEN however I’m concerned about the gate, will he get buried with nowhere to go in the straight? Maybe. He’s a very consistent galloper nowadays though & his effort in the Ryder sectionally was terrific. Should (19) FIRESTORM be able to replicate the Coolmore run she’s going to be very hard to hold out, that race was run in super quick time. (2) GRINGOTTS is a favourite of mine, will he lead or let the speed go? Have to say I’m very wary of (10) MOIRA, we’ve seen nothing of her even at the trials in Sydney, she’s an international star who won the Breeders Cup at Del Mar back in November, she may well be better than the lot of these & Zac Purton to steer is a huge positive. What a race!

Numbers: 3 – 19 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet: TOM KITTEN EACH-WAY/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

Last of the Group 1’s is The Derby. Have to be with the well fancied (18) AELIANA who absolutely savaged the line late in the Rosehill Guineas. She’s ticked along perfectly this prep & now gets out to 2400m which although she’s yet to be tried over does appear very suitable. They pulled up stumps with her in the spring after & unlucky Thousand Guineas defeat obviously with this or next week’s Oaks in mind, that will likely prove to be a very good decision. Liked the finishing effort of (5) PLYMOUTH also in the Rosehill Guineas, he found the line well late after being held up & is certainly bred to run this trip right out. (1) WILLYDOIT comes across from New Zealand where he’s won 4 of 6 starts including their Derby last month, can’t underestimate. (8) KING OF THUNDER was good at Rosehill on Tuesday, some chance.

Numbers: 18 – 5 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet: AELIANA TO WIN/Saver PLYMOUTH EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

Looking forward to this last race as I’ll be launching big time into (1) CLEAN ENERGY who in my opinion is a Group 1 filly in waiting. She beat the triple Group 1 winner Lady Shenandoah at her first two outings then was off the scene for almost a year before returning with a solid Flemington placing. Next time out she sat wide & was still too strong at Moonee Valley, third up & peaking now she’s a class above these. (2) ZEITUNG was good against the tempo first up, given plenty of time since goes in nice & fresh here. Respecting the Kiwi visitor (5) LOVE POEM.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet: CLEAN ENERGY TO WIN.

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