Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Newcastle Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing heads to Newcastle on Saturday where the feature will be the running of this year’s ‘The Hunter’. We open the day with a 2yo affair where not one of the 8 acceptors has been to the races, they have all been to the trials though & that’s our guide until the betting heats up closer to race time. GOOD HOTSPUR & SECRET GLORY both come from strong stables & will figure in the finish should they run up to their trials. Respect for A BAR IN PARIS & DA SNOOP DOG.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: Be guided by the market moves.

RACE 2

Mile Midway where I’m going to stick with the in-form PIRAEUS who did look the winner 250m from the line last start however he just couldn’t quite see it out peaking on his finish late allowing the winner to come through nearer the inside in what was a very busy finish. He was 3 weeks between runs suggesting he’ll be all the fitter this time around. HARLOW MIST comes out of the same race when closing well, another to be suited by the additional distance. MAGNATEAR a chance back to the easier grade.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: PIRAEUS TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 3

What an absolute raffle! Safest way out on an each-way basis may be BANDASHA who has come back to racing in consistent fashion this prep, gets a 3kg claim & comes from the Highway winning stable of Matt Dunn. CABLE EXPRESS is only lightly raced, comes off a good win at Radwick when overcoming a poor start, drawn the pole should get plenty of favours. BRAVELY next best.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up as many as you can in exotics!

RACE 4

BULLETS HIGH looks the way to go here coming out the same ‘official’ grade race last start (BM78) closing strongly to get within less than 0.3L from the winner. He rises only a kilo & Rawiller sticks, should prove very hard to hold out over 100m further this afternoon. FOR VICTORY is yet to miss a placing second-up & that’s where he is at today, claim a big plus can figure in the finish. CAPTAIN FURAI has been disappointing this prep, he won’t find this any harder than last start & if able to recapture his best form would improve plenty.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet: BULLETS HIGH TO WIN.

RACE 5

Last chance PIPPIE BEACH for me here, to be honest I thought she may measure up to some better quality races over the spring however she’s struggled to win in restricted company, this is no harder than what she’s been up against of late & Rawiller jumping aboard could make all the difference. Danger may well be TERRESTAR who drops plenty in grade having finished second at this level two back before tacking a Group 3 last start. Same deal with WATCH MY GIRL who does rise plenty in weight though.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: PIPPIE BEACH TO WIN.

RACE 6

The lightly raced TOWSEND has some very solid form lines from his 2yo days & he did run very well first up at Randwick recently in a stronger race. Yes, he’s up in the weights however with placings behind the likes of Tom Kitten & Militarize in Listed & Group 1 company he just has to be the horse to beat. GLAD YOU THIK SO placed in a Derby last prep, strike rate isn’t the best however no surprise to see improvement dropping plenty at the weights. The consistent PREMISE should be included.

Numbers: 5 – 10 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet: TOWSEND TO WIN.

RACE 7

Oe of the day’s features is the Spring Stakes for the 3yo & we have a good quality field assembled. I’m leaning to the lightly raced yet promising SNITZANOVA who will have plenty of upside lining up for only start number three. He finished full of running to land the money on the Kenso track last start & based on that the step up in trip looks ideal. ALTHOFF & TOTOKA are both in with definite winning chances, the former has had a few in the past though whilst the latter can be forgiven for the last start defeat when nothing suited, gate suggests he will give away a start once again though.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

The one-million-dollar Hunter is the big one of the day. I’ve narrowed it down to a handful of winning hopes & don’t see much separating them. Kosciuszko winner FAR TOO EASY gets the nod, yes, he was benefitted that day by a good draw being able to park closer to the speed which isn’t the case today. However, he looked so good roaring away from Front Page on that occasion my gut feel is he could be going better than ever. PRIVATE EYE the class runner, drops an absolute ton in class! BRIASA is very progressive, only defeat should have been a win when trapped wide. ROYAL MERCHANT next best.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 14 – 5

Suggested Bet: FAR TOO EASY EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

The stayers stretch it out to 2300m here in what looks a very competitive affair. Is this the day for WYCLIF? Well, he’s been right out of luck lately, that was certainly the case at Rosehill last start & note he’s placed 4 of his past 5 starts (all 2nd’s). Visiting Queenslander NIKAU SPUR has been a complete model of consistency this prep & drops nicely in weight off recent runs. He’ll have no trouble with the trip & gets Tim Clark to steer which is a very positive lead. STOCKMAN looks close & should the track be rain affected he’s right in the hunt here.  NAVAL COLLEGE wasn’t far away first up & does come to hand quickly.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10

Last race, raffle, basically anything could win this! AMUR has had the two runs back from a break & hasn’t been far away at either. Overall record is a good one, should be primed for a big run here. BATTLETON is in form & draw well, could he possibly make it two straight wins? Can make a case for DREAM HOUR, will need luck off the wide draw though.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 14 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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