Races

Michael Heaton’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Michael Heaton

RACE 1

MORNING THUNDER resumes first up, no trial and looked incredibly exciting when winning on debut last preparation. The Hanseatic colt dropped another gear and won like a proper horse at the Ascot 1000m and he can be kept out of trouble from the gate here on what looks set to be a very wet track. FARNOVA is a bombproof jump-and-run filly who has had to be used up early from awkward draws at both starts back but she’s still fought on well. She can bounce straight to the top from barrier 2 and control the tempo. THE VOICE INSIDE debuts off the back of an impressive trial win and can track Farnova’s every move. QUEDJINUP will likely get back but she has trialled well over 2 preparations now.

Numbers: 1-6-4-9

Suggested Bet – MORNING THUNDER WIN

RACE 2

XENTARO might need some luck from the gate but he otherwise gets into this extremely well with 59kg after Natika Riordan’s claim. He’s recorded big late figures at his past few runs, is a heavy-8 (and 3-time soft-5) winner and this is arguably an easier field than his past 2 starts. Stablemate ZOURUN RUN dropped back to 1000m last week which proved a masterstroke because she reeled off sharp last sectionals to score a strong win. She now backs up off 7 days and is bred to handle the likely wet track conditions. SOUND OF SPEED hasn’t been far away lately now gets shades on for the first time. JUST WALTER JOHN a watch first up.

Numbers: 1-3-2-4

Suggested Bet – XENTARO WIN

RACE 3

TOO DARDY looks ready to peak third-up. First up he did his best work late over 1000m, second up he was very strong through the line to suggest he can tick the 1200m box here and he now backs up off 7 days and strikes a wet track which he typically relishes. CHARINO has returned in top form this campaign. He won with a leg in the air last time out and whilst he now rises 4kg and is yet to win on a rain-affected track, he gets a similar setup to his last-start win. SUPERNATURAL hit the line beautifully in her recent trial and knocked off Charino in the Fitzpatrick Plate last preparation. She typically flies fresh and is a former heavy-9 winner. THE CALABRESE has been stiff both times he’s drawn the inside this preparation and the wide draw here likely suits him better.

Numbers: 5-2-8-6

Suggested Bet – TOO DARDY EACH-WAY

RACE 4

MT SHIRATAKU had it all against him last start when jumping from barrier 15 of 16 with 60.5kg and whilst he actually ended up having a decent run, he was still a huge effort to record a fast-finishing second from well back and miss by only a head. He maps much more favourably here, gives the impression the extra 100m won’t be a concern and he’s ticked the wet track box. RAINLINE was massive in the same race when straightening up last and going down by only a half-length. She’s another who gets a much better setup this time around and is a former soft-6 winner and heavy-8 placegetter. SPEED BUBBLE is going super and likely settles in the same position (in the moving line) as his last-start win. RIGHT TO SILENCE doesn’t win out of turn but she’s been terrific at both runs back and has placed at all 3 of her previous heavy track starts.

Numbers: 1-2-3-10

Suggested Bet – MT SHIRATAKU WIN

Same Race Multi – Mt Shirataku (Top 2) + Rainline (Top 4)

MT SHIRATAKU is going great guns this preparation and was a big effort to go down by a head when jumping from barrier 15 of 16 with 60.5kg last start. He maps much more favourably here and looks the most progressive type in this field. RAINLINE was huge in the same race when straightening up last and rocketing home to be beaten only a half-length. She also gets a much better setup from a more favourable draw here and is proven on wet tracks.

RACE 5

Great race for a Graduation. SEARCHIN’ TIMES resumes first up, no trial which Summer Dickson has a great record doing and the filly came of age last preparation when winning her first 4 starts for the stable. She’s a progressive 3YO and she gets a great map here where she can camp just off the speed. SPICY THANG went down narrowly last week which followed an impressive first up win and she now backs up off 7 days whilst reuniting with William Pike. A lot to like about the way she’s going but the gate looks tricky. TIDWELL will likely get back from the gate but his first up midweek win on a soft-6 rated very well and he now drops 4kg whilst stepping to a more suitable distance. ALLENTOWN won third-up over 1200m on a heavy-9 track this time last year, hits this race third up after 2 encouraging runs for his new yard and can ride the speed.

Numbers: 4-6-12-5

Suggested Bet – SEARCHIN’ TIMES EACH-WAY

RACE 6

MAJOR MARIO has returned in good form again this preparation and is probably going even better than numerical form suggests. He’s a model of consistency, drops 2kg to just 56kg after Natika Riordan’s claim despite dropping from a 78+ to a 66+, was a winner in this grade and at this distance last preparation and he handles a wet track. ANTIQUE QUEEN beat some nice 3YOs in Spellborn and Herault over 1650m 2 starts back before getting held up at a crucial stage last time out. She now steps to 2100m and Pike rides her over the stablemate who he has won aboard at its last 2 starts. STARTLING STAR is that stablemate and she’s really turned the corner since stepping up to the staying trips. She loses Pike but is still well placed dropping a half-kilo from her last-start win at this track/grade/distance after Cassey Martinan’s claim. DUCHEES DEMERIT has an enormous winning drought to break but he’s going super.

Numbers: 1-5-4-8

Suggested Bet – MAJOR MARIO EACH-WAY

RACE 7

TERRITORY MAN trialled up well then won accordingly first up when settling in a much more forward position than anticipated but appearing to relish the free-rolling tactics over 1400m. That tactical speed should see him settle prominently from his low draw here and he looks a type who can progress his way through the grades. FIFTH ESSENCE travelled boldly in a fast-run 1650m before getting overrun late last start and he now drops back to 1400m. His previous efforts were strong and he should enjoy the run of the race. WITH DISCRETION was eye-catching first up in the same race as Territory Man and now meets him 2kg better whilst drawing much a much better gate to work with. ALL GRUNT resumes off the back of a nice trial and whilst he’ll likely get back a long way, he’s a talented 4YO who we should see the best of this winter.

Numbers: 5-3-13-2

Suggested Bet – TERRITORY MAN WIN

RACE 8

CORRECT CHOICE scored a nice win in the WA Day Cup 2 starts back before contesting a 78+ event last time out where he was posted 3-deep the trip. He still stuck on to be beaten only 2L, drops back to a 66+ where he’s drawn a much getter gate and he gets Pike aboard for the first time this prep. BATTLE COMMANDER goes lengths better with Lisa Staples aboard and fought on doggedly in the same race last start. He looks the logical leader again and could prove hard to get past. SIMPLY THINKIN’ was given a super ride last start but her figures leading into that win were terrific and she now drops 3kg after Chanel Cooper’s claim. NOTEWORTHY was doing her best work through the line second up and should be just about ready to show her best on a suitably wet track.

Numbers: 7-3-6-4

Suggested Bet – CORRECT CHOICE WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

2,3,4,5,6,9,12

1,4,5

3,5,13

2,3,4,6,7

315 combinations

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