Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

We’re racing at Rosehill on Saturday where the going will be in the soft range, likely near a (5-6) as the forecast Thursday onwards is sunny. We get things underway with a Midway where there look to be two main winning chances being (5) ISLAND DEC & (6) ZOUNAKA. I’ll side with the former who has the strong Ice Kool form line two back, that proved winning form when back to midweek grade her latest scoring comfortably. (6) ZOUNAKA is in very good form, too classy first up at Kembla she then beat all bar the winner here at this level 2 weeks back, 3kg claim a big positive. (14) LAST DRUID not out of it at a price, worth including in exotics.     

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 14 – 8

Suggested Bet: BACKING TOP 2 SELECTIONS TO WIN.

RACE 2

Big numbers in this week’s Highway which loses the Matt Dunn runner (6) TOO HOT TO TORQUE who would have been very well fancied. There’s lot of quality country form going around this week predominantly nos.3, 13 & 14, I wouldn’t be the least surprised to see the winner come from that trio. Should (22) SHE WITHIN gain a start though, I’ll lean to her, if not it will be one of the three however it’s a race I won’t be getting to involved in.

Numbers: 22 – 3 – 14 – 13

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics best.

RACE 3

No doubt (1) OMOLONG was impressive on debut. His closing 400m was sub 22 seconds, the only runner to break that figure all day, considering he achieved it on debut as a late season 2yo rates highly. However, if you’re looking at the early market odds on offer against a solid looking line up with a number of debutantes who have been flying at the trials it does seem unders, I’d be wanting $3 plus. (14) KOTOR has looked good at her trials winning both very comfortably whilst (6) JOINT VENTURE another Waller runner has also been showing up at the trials.

Numbers: 1 – 14 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: OMOLONG TO WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 4

She’s going to start well into red figures (1) BIG RED TEQUILA & in this field that’s totally understandable. Strong to the line first up beating all bar the very promising Ice Kool she then took that one on once again when never on the track at any stage, her effort to go down by just under a length was a tough one, she’ll be too good for this bunch. Should (3) WINNING PROPOSAL be able to get back anywhere near her better form she’d be some chance of running a placing. (7) WEST OF DALBY in the mix also.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet: BIG RED TEQUILA TO WIN.

RACE 5

Yes, (9) GORGEOUS was again unlucky last week however there’s only so many times you can go to the well, should she break through here it will be without me. (4) HELLO CAPTAIN will hopefully be around the even money quote & if he is then I’ll be siding with him. Two strong wins before up to Saturday grade at Randwick 2 weeks ago when very unlucky not to win. Held up until too late he found the line well once into the clear, add to that the race was not run at any great tempo, making that late ground was even better than on face value. (2) CHEEKY SMIRK did win that race & looks a chance once again however I’m convinced the tables will be turned.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet: HELLO CAPTAIN TO WIN.

RACE 6

Keep coming back to (5) POLYGLOT here however I don’t think he’s any ‘good thing’. He is consistent though & will strip fitter for the first up run when drawing wide & giving away too much start, he did hit the line well & holds a good record at this 1100m trip. I’d prefer each-way however I doubt that’s going to be on offer. (7) COLUMBIA BLUE blew the start badly last time we saw him back in December last year, his only other two runs of the prep were wins & he has been trialling well, the wide gate doesn’t make it easy though. (6) TEYLU holds a good strike rate & is in the mix also.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: POLYGLOT EACH-WAY?

RACE 7

Very interesting race. (5) MO CHROI is a former French trained mare who was sent out favourite at her local debut winning comfortably at Canterbury, no doubt she’ll take good improvement off that & the rise in trip is not of any concern. Having said though, I’m going to give (12) NASEBAH one more chance, strong first up winner at 1800m she looked like she was going to lap up further however she went back to 1600m the next run & then 1800m last start, each time she’s hit the line well however now to 2000m, is it too late? Hope not! (6) SHANGRI LA IMPACT always in the numbers, very consistent.

Numbers: 12 – 5 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

(12) SMASHING TIME will start favourite here off 2 wins from as many runs this prep however I’m not convinced he should. Yes he drops heavily in weight from the latest however it was in Midway grade & he led at his own tempo, that’s not likely to be the case here in a much stronger race. (6) GATSBY’S resumes with a good fresh record & a couple of trials under the belt, 1200m first up looks suitable, I’d rather back him each-way. Include (4) DARK GLITTER who is always a blowout chance.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: GATSBY’S EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

(15) GLORIOUS MOMENTS is only lightly raced with an excellent record of 4 wins from 7 starts. Those 4 wins have come from his past 5 starts with the defeat two back when never on the track yet beaten just over a length. He’s up plenty in class tomorrow however with the big weight drop & good alley he can measure up. (6) MCHALE caught the eye running on first up, problem is he often does that. From a favourable draw though he just might find himself closer & in a position to strike. No knock on the in form (4) MIDNIGHT DYNAMITE bar the awkward gate.

Numbers: 15 – 6 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: GLORIOUS MOMENTS EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

Very difficult to tip against the obvious (9) TARZING in this closing race. Only the 5 outings to date yet to miss a placing & that includes 3 wins he maps ideally from the good draw & with Siena Grima’s claim carry’s no more weight that he did when victorious here last Saturday over the same 1400m trip. (5) SUPERMASSIVE is another with only a handful or so of starts racing well, parked wide did a good job behind an above average type at Randwick who is going around in the previous race (Glorious Moments). (3) MONTPELLIER a market watch fresh.

Numbers: 9 – 5 – 3 – 14

Suggested Bet: TARZING TO WIN/exotics with SUPERMASSIVE.

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