Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on May 25, 2023May 25, 2023 | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Unfortunately there’s more negatives than positives for most runners in this opening race & the one I’ve landed on is BLACKLOG who certainly has his fair share of convictions. Just thought at the price on offer he was well overs going on his last start effort behind Alburq & co, that horse would likely start favourite if going around in this race. KINETIC is going well, just would have liked to see a more authoritative win last start considering she’s up in grade, the weight drop helps. YASUKE back from the 2000m, definitely a class drop however a bit one-paced in my opinion.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 13 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

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RACE 2

ANTINO will be well fancied here & in no way am I knocking the horse who is a very progressive & promising type. He has to deal with a wide gate & 61.5kg though which is not an easy task. MAGNUS BELLAGIO finished well second up & is good odds, gets plenty of weight from ANTINO, I’ll lean his way at value. PALLADAS could be an improver, MANHOOD gets the gun run, has to take the step to 1400m though.

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: MAGNUS BELLAGIO EACH-WAY (small bet)

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RACE 3

Don’t see any reason to tip away from KALAPOUR who is the consistent horse in a race mainly full off horses who struggle with their consistency! Loved the way he got to the line winning at Doomben last start & the additional 400m shouldn’t pose any issues for him, I’d suggest a cold ride from Blake Shinn from the wide draw. D-day for SERPENTINE, is he back? He beat 3 rivals when able to dictate here 4 weeks ago, we’ll see…

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet: KALAPOUR TO WIN

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RACE 4

WITHOUT A FIGHT has had one run in Australia & that was in last year’s Melbourne Cup finishing over 20 lengths from the winner Gold Trip. The 1800m of this race may be short of his best however he’s fresh & I liked his recent trial making ground from the back of the field, happy to have something on both totes. LUNCIES will have plenty of support, terrific fresh is a model of consistency & will enjoy the step up in distance. At big odds I thought BELLATRIX BLACK could be an improver.

Numbers: 3 – 13 – 10 – 16

Suggested Bet: WITHOUT A FIGHT EACH-WAY (small bet)

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RACE 5

YELLOW BRICK needs to win this to secure his spot in the upcoming Group 1 Stradbroke & based on his return victory at the Sunshine Coast it’s hard to say he can’t. Sitting 3 deep without cover the entire trip & not at peak fitness he was entitled to fade late however his last 100m was his strongest of the race. Unbeaten here with one of those wins coming over this 1400m trip he’s the clear top selection. Plenty of respect for ZOU TIGER & what he’s done through the Sydney autumn. Must include HAWAII FIVE OH who has really hit his straps now, loved the turn of foot he showed last start.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet: YELLOW BRICK TO WIN

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RACE 6

Cracking Sires Produce with a full field to go around. ARMED FORCES impressed me at his trials prior to the debut when never ever in the hunt on a very heavy track, he just didn’t handle it. Back onto a dry surface at Doomben we saw a different horse & with the added experience & fitness I’m expecting a big run from him here. Plenty of respect for the Kiwi SOLIDIFY who has looked the goods back home, in the right stable. CIFRADO will relish the 1400m, burst through late to score last start in a race which suited him tempo wise.

Numbers: 7 – 9 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: ARMED FORCES EACH-WAY

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RACE 7

The Derby really should end up being all about KOVALICA. Yes, he had the setback prior to the Rough Habit which saw him three weeks between runs & as a result is now on the 7-day back up. Last weeks Doomben Cup effort against the older horses was just what you’d want to see & here he is now back to his own age. Just needs to run the 2400m trip out & I’m confident he can do that. At odds I thought FAME could show up, showed a real turn of foot his last couple of Victorian wins & is in good hands. THE VOWELS & SPECIAL SWEY next best.

Numbers: 1 – 14 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: KOVALICA TO WIN

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RACE 8

Super competitive looking Kingsford-Smith. I’m going with A CASE OF YOU who has caught my eye all 3 starts since coming to Australia. Unfortunately, he’s drawn poorly on each occasion which has seen him settle back last or near to it before running on very well albeit forced to make up too much ground. His pattern overseas was to race closer & his barrier draw today suggests he can do just that. No knock THINK ABOUT IT who just keeps on winning, acid test here however suggest he’ll have no trouble measuring up. No knock on the local champ ROTHFIRE either, he’s a very tough customer who will be up in the firing line from the outset.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: A CASE OF YOU EACH-WAY

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RACE 9

Tipped HELLFEST first up at Doomben a fortnight back off a solid finishing trial performance. Once she’d doubled her price close to race time my confidence levels had dropped considerably & although never a winning chance she did make good ground. Fitter & on the bigger track I’m happy to stick. BROOKSPIRE hard to beat, primed for a big run fresh whilst SALATEEN has been finishing her races off strongly this prep, wide gate no help though.

Numbers: 5 – 8 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: HELLFEST EACH-WAY

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