Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Biggest race day of the year in Brisbane on Saturday with a pair of Group 1’s, the Stradbroke & J. J. Atkins. Weather perfect as should be the track. I’m with (2) JUST PARTY in this opening race who charged home late to just miss first up at Hawkesbury in the Guineas before too far back in the Fred Best making good ground down the straight albeit without threatening. He needs the step up in distance & gets it here. (1) PISCES will give a start however he too can find the line & his run in the Fred Best was also a good one. (7) THINK LIKE PADDY is going well however has to step it up a notch class wise to beat these.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet: JUST PARTY TO WIN.

RACE 2

(2) TRANSATLANTIC will be hoping not to run here & gain a start in the Stradbroke where he only needs one more scratching to force his way into the field. Should fortune not favour him then he is clearly the horse to beat backing up off a strong win here in good time last Saturday. His record on this surface around this distance range is very impressive. Stablemate (6) TENZING also has a distinct liking for the track, super consistent this prep he does look the main danger. At big odds (10) CRANKY HARRY isn’t without a rough chance, well worth including in exotics.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 4 – 10

Suggested Bet: TRANSATLANTIC TO WIN.

RACE 3

(4) CAMPALDINO will be all the rage in the Brisbane Cup off a strong on paced win here a fortnight back in the wet. Whilst his wet form is very impressive he’s also been more than effective on dry ground & out of this stable with the breeding he has 2 miles shouldn’t be an issue. (3) ETNA ROSSO chased him home in that race & does get a weight turnaround however I can’t see him turning the tables. Last year’s winner (1) ALEGRON will appreciate the step up to 2 miles once again.  (6) TRUE MARVEL in the mix, likely parks behind the top tip in the run, they will likely control the tempo.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: CAMPALDINO TO WIN.

RACE 4

Going with a couple here at good odds being (7) MIDNIGHT SPIRIT & (11) AMOSU with a leaning to the latter who looks to be screaming out for 1200m. Both runs this time in have been over 1000m where she’s found the line well with excuses early on, Craig Williams sticks & she’s going to enjoy the long run home here. (7) MIDNIGHT SPIRIT was good first up, didn’t go a yard second-up in the heavy conditions, blinkers go on here just as they did in a recent trial (post latest run) when leading throughout. Respect for (1) QUIETLY ARROGANT who will enjoy the solid tempo.

Numbers: 11 – 7 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet: MIDNIGHT SPIRIT & AMOSU EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

Keen on the chances of (7) NEED SOME LUCK who will be looking for plenty of it here from his wide draw & likely lack of tempo up front. Even accounting for that I still feel he’s capable of gunning his rivals down however I’d want a price a little better than his opening quote. His run at the Gold Coast was a cracker with plenty against & note his prior form was winning form. (1) KING KAPA won this race 2 years ago; he’s a very honest customer who can definitely win & will be closer in the run than the top tip. (2) PRINCE OF BOOM can give a sight out front.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: NEED SOME LUCK TON WIN ($3 or better).

RACE 6

First of the Group 1’s is the J.J. Atkins for the 2yo’s who all go to the mile trip for the first time. (1) COOL ARCHIE just keeps on winning, he shoots for 5 straight victories here & the way he went about winning the Sires Produce a fortnight back suggests the additional 200m won’t be any concern whatsoever. (8) HIDDEN ACHIEVEMENT is going along very well down south; latest 3rd was a lot better than appears on paper as the leaders dawdled & ran the quinella, mathematically he was no hope yet wasn’t far away on the line. Not giving up on (2) GRAFTERBURNERS who finally draws a gate whilst (16) PROVIDENCE is in the right hands & far from hopeless.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 2 – 16

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7

The Dane Ripper is the main lead-up to the Group 1 Tiara in a fortnight. Originally I tipped (4) FIRESTORM in the Stradbroke however she has been removed from the Group 1 feature to run here instead. I’m going to stick however I would be lying if I didn’t admit the likely soft tempo was a concern. (11) FLOOZIE is flying, yes this is harder however she just keeps on winning & therefore deserves a crack, should that tempo end up soft she’s going to be suited, she may even lead? (3) OLENTIA is a gun fresh mare who cannot be overlooked.

Numbers: 4 – 11 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: FIRESTORM EACH-WAY/Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

Very interesting Stradbroke this year as it’s basically (7) WAR MACHINE vs the rest if the market is any guide. Yes, he was impressive winning at Doomben & I can’t see any runner who he beat home there turning the tables however there’s plenty of other depth this time around. At the odds on offer I’m leaning to the Group 1 winning mare (4) KIMOCHI who backs up from a close 4th in the Kingsford-Smith Cup here last week. That run should bring her along nicely & she’s got some very strong top level form lines when on song. (7) WAR MACHINE definitely goes in; gut feel is he’ll either bolt in or miss a place. (1) PRIVATE EYE is the wildcard whilst (6) GOLDEN MILE a chance on his run last week when finishing ahead of KIMOCHI.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: KIMOCHI EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

Clearly the best bet of the afternoon comes up in this final race being last year’s winner of this race (1) FAWKNER PARK who bolted in beating Knight’s Choice who of course then went on to win the Melbourne Cup in the spring. He was also heading in that direction however sustained an injury & had to be spelled. His last couple he’s chased home Antino, handy form line, looks a ‘good thing’. (3) MILITARIZE would have run a placing in the Doomben Cup had it been a shade further, he gets an additional 200m today to get into the money & should do so. (4) KOVALICA & (2) BOIS D’ARGENT next best.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: FAWKER PARK TO WIN.

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