Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

‘Super Saturday’ at Eagle Farm with 3 Group 1’s on the card thanks to last Saturday’s washout. Track should be rated Good or very close to it. (13) SUNRAYS the very consistent filly from the Kelly Schweida stable gets the nod in this opening race. Yes, she takes on some stronger opposition this time around however she just keeps on winning & was dominant in doing so last start suggesting the step up in distance won’t concern. At big odds (9) LEVERAGED BUYOUT isn’t without a chance even off the wide draw, really liked his run at the Gold Coast from an impossible position. (2) NAVY PILOT will appreciate the step up in distance, (8) PROVIDENCE holds the lethal Waller/J. Mac combo & isn’t here for the weather.

Numbers: 13 – 9 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: SUNRAYS TO WIN.

RACE 2

(10) SHALAA’S MOMENT will go around good odds in this race for a mare who resumes with a perfect 4 from 4 first up record. She ticks many boxes including the track & trip, the wide draw likely won’t concern, it could well be a good thing as she does like to get back & run on often finding traffic, she’ll avoid that from out there. (1) STEADY READY flies around here, shoots for 4 straight & looks the toughest to beat. Stablemate to the top tip (16) TERMAGANT takes a decent rise in grade however is improving with every prep & in no way out of this.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 16 – 2

Suggested Bet: SHALAA’S MOMENT EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

Open race for the fillies & mares where there’s any number of winning chances. I’ve been with the consistent (3) MISS JOELENE a couple of times this prep when winning & running a very unlucky second, back from a couple of Group races she’s much better placed today & can bounce back. (8) MARE OF MT BULLER rarely runs a bad race; she comes into this off a freshen up & did hit the line well her latest. (5) THALASSOPHILE likely needs a wetter surface however should be getting close now at her third run back from a spell.

Numbers: 3 – 8 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

(2) HIDDEN WEALTH & (8) FRONT PAGE will set the speed here & likely control the race, suggest they will fight out the finish too! Which one wins though? I’m staying local & sticking with (2) HIDDEN WEALTH who strikes a much more suitable race this afternoon having tackled the Victory & 10,000 at his two runs back from a break. He’ll scoot around here & give these plenty to catch. Should (8) FRONT PAGE run up to his Galaxy second behind the highly rated Private Harry he’ll win, he’s had a trip to Perth since though & will have needed the break. Thought (10) BOOM TORQUE was a solid value chance last start however everything went pear-shaped from the jump, dry tracks are his go, expect a sharp improvement.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 10 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 5

(10) GERRINGONG hit the line strongly first up at Scone just taking a little time to wind up. Once she did though she put in a decent burst to miss out narrowly in a blanket go. Only lightly raced she has plenty of upside & strips fitter, wide gate not ideal however happy to take the punt on an each-way basis. (2) WINNASEDGE maps very well & comes into the race off a strong run of form down south. (15) FINGERS HUNTER should have won here two starts back before a forgivable effort at the Gold Coast in poor conditions, can bounce back at a price.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 15 – 6

Suggested Bet: GERRINGONG TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 6

Right down on the minimum weight (18) TAVS gets the nod from me here in what looks a very open race. Consecutive dominant wins this track before out of the money across the road at Doomben last start when never on the track. He didn’t shirk his task one bit though & wasn’t far away on the line. Gets a much more favourable run from this alley. Tony Gollan has always had a big opinion of (6) TRANSATLANTIC who can bounce back into form on his favourite track. (16) FUKUBANA is also in good form & can figure in the finish once again.

Numbers: 18 – 6 – 16 – 12

Suggested Bet: TAVS EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup is a cracking sprint as you’d expect at this level, finding the winner is no easy task though. The first obstacle when doing the form for the race is the lack of pace, on my map Zarastro leads for fun, perhaps Rise At Dawn will push on however that’s it! J. Mac will be awake up to that & no doubt send (10) JOLIESTAR forward from her wide gate & land a prominent spot, from there she’ll get her chance & is much better now this race is to be run on dry ground. Thought (12) BENEDETTA was good in the 10,000, she just raced a bit flat on the turn & missed the boat there, drier track helps her also. (1) GIGA KICK has to be included. (11) KIMOCHI right in it.

Numbers: 10 – 12 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: JOLIESTAR TO WIN.

RACE 8

This would be one of the better Group 1 Queensland Oaks in recent years, I’ve narrowed it down to 5 main chances & I could easily go with any of them! (8) PINITO gets the nod, I’ve just got this feeling about her & have had it since watching her steam home in Sydney albeit without winning, she did get that victory on the board when dominating the Bracelet at the Gold Coast in horrendous conditions. Back to Sydney with a trial between that run & this I’ll take the punt she’s ready to go. (3) MOVIN OUT was huge from last in the Roses behind (2) PHILIA who was equally as impressive winning the race from the front. (6) JENNI’S MEADOW was right there with them as was (4) CHURCHILL’S CHOICE who did endure a tough trip.  Great race, can’t wait!

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 2 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 5 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

Without doubt the Group 1 the Queensland Derby is an absolute lottery! Originally, I was quite happy to pot the form out of the Rough Habit 3 weeks ago however I’m not so much now & have put the ‘roughie’ (8) DEEP FOCUS on top who finished second in that race. Although only lightly raced he just keeps on finding the line suggesting 2400m is well within his grasp, he’s building whereas many of his rivals are coming through arduous campaigns & may well be looking for the paddock. (17) BELLE DETELLE & (1) FIRM AGREEMENT both fit that category, yes, they have the best form lines however are they over the top?

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: DEEP FOCUS EACH-WAY (small bet)/wide exotics.

RACE 10

We round out the big day with a Listed affair for the girls where I’m leaning to the consistent (7) KIN who has put in a couple of solid efforts this prep. She’s sat deep at each of those runs yet still found the line strongly, J. Mac sticks which is a tip within itself! The Gollan pair (6) COMRADE ROSA & (8) FLOOZIE both right in it, the former is building nicely & far better suited on dry ground whereas the latter is absolutely flying this time in, shoots for 4 straight here just raising the bar with each win, will have to do it from a wide gate.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 9 – 5

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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