Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

Racing at Eagle Farm on Saturday should be rain affected to some degree after another deluge this week. This track does dry out very well though, I’d suggest something in the soft (5) range? We get under way with the 2yo’s where there look to be only a couple of likely winning chances being (1) THEE CREEK & (2) PROFOUNDLY. I’m with the former who ran into a smart one on debut before a game effort in the Jewel at the Gold Coast when racing close to a hot speed sticking on well to the line. (2) PROFOUNDLY made late ground on debut in a good race before rounding up her rivals to win well here second time around, no knock. (7) ON POINT PIXIE an improver.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: THEE CREEK TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 2

(3) FIOPROSPERO impressed winning here last start which was his second run back from a break. The fourth placed horse in the race was (5) MANNERHEIM who did find the line strongly late & gets a 2.5kg turnaround for the 1.6L defeat. Can he turn the tables? Well, ideally this race would be over further however I’m taking the punt he can. (4) PEROVIC improved nicely second-up & note was a third-up winner last prep.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: MANNERHEIM EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

Second of the distance races & it’s not easy, certainly wouldn’t be having my last on any of these. (2) OUTBURST settled back last before storming down the outside to win here last month, with the claim for Emily Lang he’ll carry no additional weight & he handles all types of going. (12) KAYLEEN’S PROFIT is the one in the race with upside, she’s only lightly raced whereas her rivals have had plenty of outings & mostly lack consistency. She finished just over a length from (2) OUTBURST her latest run & meets him 2.5kg better at the weights, fitter & better placed with that run under her belt. (1) BEDORD SQUARE some hope, prefer her down in the weights though.

Numbers: 2 – 12 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 4

Should all the on-pacers go around here & there’s a few of them we’re likely to get a truly run race. Should that be the case (8) RED DEFCON looks a strong chance to bring up the hat trick. She’s always shown good ability however her get back, run on style hasn’t always panned out as she’s lacked tempo in races or run into traffic issues. Drawn wide today she can get to the outside & score an unimpeded run to the line. (6) IMATRUESTAR has the same racing pattern & will also get back, in good form is a definite chance. (3) TOESONTHENOSE & (5) BOLDINHO in the mix.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: RED DEFCON EACH-WAY.

RACE 5

(4) THAT’S MOLLY is in career best form & I don’t see any reason as to why she can’t make it consecutive victories. Strong to the line at Doomben three back she than ran into traffic issues down the straight same track next time out. Stepped up to 1800m at the Gold Coast she produced an enormous finish to get home over the top of the leader late. (3) CABOCHE is very close, third run back will be near his peak, he likely needs 2000m plus though? The consistent (5) ANEMACORE gets some weight relief off the latest run.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet: THAT’S MOLLY TO WIN.

RACE 6

Liked the way (14) ARISPHERE found the line when resuming at the Gold Coast. All the way back to last on the home turn she weaved her way to fourth beaten under 2 lengths. She gets in a little lighter at the weights this time around & is unbeaten here on her home track, she’s a decent price in early markets & looks good value. (10) WILD BOTANICA continues to race consistently, she tried very hard here last start however couldn’t get to the winner Super Daisy who is also engaged in this race. (8) AVONE well supported in early markets can run a race fresh.

Numbers: 14 – 10 – 8 – 9

Suggested Bet: ARISPHERE EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

The lightly raced (16) ANAVINCI gets the nod here off a solid second at this very track last month. She gave away too much start running into trouble down the straight before finding the line soundly. Drops in weight & hopefully lands closer in the run although that’s far from a given. (9) SHIHAB is flying this prep, well deserved winner last start can figure in the finish once again. An improving track will aid the first up (7) TRUE TO FORM whilst (1) BLAKMAX was good fresh.

Numbers: 16 – 9 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: ANAVINCI EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

Looking for some market support for the resuming (5) SUBSTANTIAL who holds a solid fresh record. His recent trial placing suggests he’s on song for a big return & the drying track certainly won’t do any harm to his chances. I’m very wary of the southern raider (15) RHYTHM OF LOVE who does race well when fresh, probably would have preferred the rain to hang around a little longer however is still a hope on a drying surface. I’ve just about given up on (11) MINTAKA LAD which is good for his connections, he’s still racing consistently though & won’t be far away.

Numbers: 5 – 15 – 11 – 9

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 9

(7) BENZOU was very impressive winning here a fortnight ago settling back in the field before zooming down the outside racing clear of his rivals to the line. That’s 2 wins from only 3 attempts & there were definitely excuses at the defeat. I’d suggest he can go right on with it & win again. (1) ASTAPOR was good in the Jewel Prelude before covering a lot of additional ground in the main race at the Gold Coast, forget that run completely. (10) COSMO CENTAURUS had excuses last start, another who raced very wide, poor draw again today unfortunately. Keeping the first up winner (8) YABBY PUMP safe.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 10 – 8

Suggested Bet: BENZOU TO WIN.

RACE 10

There’s a lot of speed on paper in this final race & should they all feel the pinch late the classy mare (1) COMRADE ROSA will be there to strike. She’s clearly better than these & is a first up winner twice albeit not in her most recent preparations. Monitor the market closely, should there be support I’d be following it in. (13) HELL is super quick, no weight & the good draw suggest he’s going to go like the ‘clappers’ in front, can he hold on? (2) KING KAPA will need luck from his draw.

Numbers: 1 – 13 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: COMRADE ROSA EACH-WAY (small bet).

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