Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Racing at Eagle Farm should be on a Good rated surface. We open the day with a 1000m dash where the speed looks quite strong on the map, early tactics & positions all important. SUPER DAISY held off GREAT BARRIER REEF here last start & meets him better at the weights, logically she’s the one to beat again however at the wide difference in the odds I can entertain him on an each-way basis. MR GALAZI is a model of consistency & will get away with one of these races eventually, where he ends up from the wide draw is a concern here.

Numbers: 11 – 10 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: GREAT BARRIER REEF EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

2400m will find a few of these out. Certainly not BAK DA MAN who is the top tip in the race & in very good form at present lining up for the hat trick of wins this afternoon. Drawn well he’ll take up a position & he’s going to be strong where it counts, he’ll just keep on going all day. Thought BEDFORD SQUARE may be ready to improve, does mix her form however this looks suitable. HECTOR DE MARIS is another to mix form, on his best he’s at least a place chance.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: BAK DA MAN EACH-WAY.

RACE 3

Going with value here putting DROP THE MIC on top & I’m pretty sure I’ll be the only one! His form is definitely up to figuring in the finish here having clocked in 3rd behind recent Group 2 placegetter Punch Lane at the Sunshine Coast back in July. He should have finished closer last start & if things pan out is capable of an upset. BULLION BOY looks close & maps well from the gate, LUDOVOSI can improve with a touch of luck from the wide draw.

Numbers: 16 – 4 – 15 – 11

Suggested Bet: DROP THE MIC EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

Last start winner JUNIPAL will likely go around favourite once again here, can he win two straight off such a long run of outs? Mmm, I’m not so sure. TIDAL CREEK will roll forward in a race with very little speed on paper, (he & Menazzi look the only two) freshened up, back in trip & with 3kg off for an in-form Cody Collis he’s going to take some catching. HYDE was impressive last week, definite claims should he handle the quick back up.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet: TIDAL CREEK EACH-WAY

RACE 5

Distinct lack of a leader in this race with the widely drawn My Pins already scratched. I’ll stick with IVERSON who turned in his worst performance since coming north at Doomben 2 weeks back. The tempo didn’t help however he failed to give backers any hope settling last & staying there. Previous form had been very consistent & should he & Jimmy Orman be able to take some advantage of the good draw can bounce back hard. EVOCATOR & TIME TO TALK both race rearward, they’ll need something going up front to give them a chance. Include KRONENBOURG who may end up being the race leader.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 8 – 3

Suggested Bet: IVERSON TO WIN.

RACE 6

I just have to be with END ASSEMBLY here, I’m well aware he hasn’t won for some time however he’s just better than these. He should be peaking third run back from a break & drawn the pole with 3kg off he’s going to get the right run on speed. Wary of the Gollan trained EXCEED SPEED is only lightly raced with a good record, trialled well, should run well. Interesting runner is the ex-NSW trained RUNWITHTHETIDE, has won fresh & also trialled well recently.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet: END ASSEMBLY TO WIN.

RACE 7

Not a great deal of speed on the map which isn’t going to play into the hands of the resuming CIGAR FLICK however I’m of the opinion she’ll still be too strong late providing they don’t dawdle in front. She hit her straps last prep closing off with a big win here on Tiara Day breaking the track record, nice recent trial will have her ready to go. BUBBA’S BAY was well ridden to win at Doomben at fortnight back, quality galloper again well placed with the 3kg claim. EXOTIQUE MISS was terrific first up at Toowoomba, she sat wide all the way sticking to her task well, gut feel is she’ll now be chasing further though?

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: CIGAR FLICK TO WIN/SAVER BUBBA’S BAY.

RACE 8

Super keen on the chances of ESTRONDO who was very unlucky not to win last start. Looking a big chance near the 200m however unfortunately he ran into traffic issues & then had to weave a path home closing solidly yet missing out by less than a length. Arguably he would have won with clearer running & the step up in distance will only assist. BOLIINGER MISS ran well in the same race whilst GIN A TONIC & ALPHA BRAVO whilst consistent do look risks out to the 1400m.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: ESTRONDO TO WIN.

RACE 9

Open looking race & I’m happy to suggest we back a couple of decent odds. NEW JOY should she gain a start is well worth an each-way ticket. Her last start 5th at Doomben was better than it reads on paper as she was held up in the straight before closing off nicely, she hit the line well at her prior run as well & should lap up the additional distance. PORKY comes out of the same last start race, he worked to find the front & then fought on very well to beat all bar the winner who had the last crack. ULTIMATE OUTCOME is very close.

Numbers: 15 – 5 – 7 – 9

Suggested Bet: NEW JOY/PORKY EACH-WAY.

RACE 10

POSEIDON RULER certainly doesn’t win out of turn however he looks very close to a breakthrough going on recent efforts. Delete the run two back when he should have been scratched at the gates after playing up & go the efforts either side which have been solid closing ones. The consistent CARTWHEELS resumes, she’s a promising mare who can run a race fresh. ELLIBABY will be finding the line.

Numbers: 13 – 16 – 15 – 1

Suggested Bet: POSEIDON RULER EACH-WAY.

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