Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Big day of racing in Brisbane with the Doomben 10,000 set to be run & won. More rain this week will see the meeting run on a heavy track. I’m with the very consistent (6) SHIHAB in this opening race who will need things to pan out as he does come up with a wide gate. Consecutive wins Gold Coast & Eagle Farm he then ran a slashing second same track last start making good ground after giving away too much start. He’s a swimmer who could well round these up at the business end of the race. (4) FUKUBABA gets J. Mac & has been racing in very consistent form, (2) VICTORY WIN drops back in trip & has only seen soft to date, record on that surface is a good one.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: SHIHAB EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

Open looking race where I’ve gone with the best wet tracker & that’s (16) JEALOUS who found the line nicely first up. In an ideal world she’d be rising in distance not dropping 50m however still on the fresh side & with a surface to suit she gets a couple of definite positives. Had we been racing on dry ground (2) DEEP RESPECT would be the top tip off a very good first up run when narrowly beaten, it’s the soft/heavy track record that concerns me. (10) WINSOME STAR returns off a short break, both wind to date have been on soft ground.

Numbers: 16 – 2 – 10 – 6 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 5 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

(2) GOODLUCKTOME has been nothing but consistent all prep & does look well placed in this race. He returns to the scene of his strong victory two starts back lumping 61.5kg on a deteriorating surface. From the good alley Maloney will have him in a position to strike early in the straight. (1) PISCES the danger, hit the line well at Hawkesbury is right at his peak now. Should the run on horses be making ground in the earlier races include the smart filly (8) EL MORZILLO.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: GOODLUCKTOME TO WIN (small bet).

RACE 4

Keen on the chances of the import (2) AL MUBHIR who looks to be a ‘swimmer’. His best form at home was on wet ground & his best run in Australia was his latest behind the since won again Punch Lane on a soft (6) at Randwick which raced wetter than that. He’ll get conditions to suit here & with J. Mac on board will be very well fancied. The Gollan pair (4) TENZING & (7) RISING PACIFIC are flying, the latter doesn’t like it wet & may not even run, the former will get through it. (5) COSMIC VEGA can improve sharply on the first up run, his best form is clearly on rain affected ground.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet: AL MUBHIR TO WIN.

RACE 5

Really open Spirit Of Boom for the 2yo’s where I’m leaning to the local (1) GRAFTERBURNERS who has done absolutely nothing wrong at all 5 starts to date winning the latest which was the rich Jewel race on the Gold Coast earlier this year. Yes, he will get back however owns a very strong finish & should they be running on in the earlier races look out for him late. (3) COOL ARCHIE is a real professional, strong last start win he will find a prominent spot in the run & has ticked the heavy track box. I’m a big wrap for (4) TORQUE TO BE SURE who goes into the race second-up, suited by the step up in trip he’s a huge chance. Including (2) GALLO NERO, (7) UNITED STATES & (8) BESKAR who all bring strong interstate form.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 6 selections in exotics.

RACE 6

Really looking forward to seeing (1) SIR DELIUS go around in this race. New to the Waterhouse/Bott stable he hasn’t raced since finishing 8th in The Arc at Longchamp which is one of the world’s most famous & prestigious races. He’s a Group 1 placegetter & Group 3 winner amongst only 6 starts & has won both trials, all runs to date have been on wet ground, he should lap this lot! (9) CABOCHE continues to race well & is looking for the 2000m now, wet form sound. (2) ALEGRON can improve second up.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet: SIR DELIUS TO WIN.

RACE 7

(2) IN FLIGHT & (3) KIN come through a Listed race run at Hawkesbury a fortnight back finishing second & third respectively not far from the winner Dragonstone. Both will prove hard to beat however the former clearly has the better wet track form in fact she’s a swimmer & third-up will be peaking. (3) KIN right in it though, that latest run was on heavy ground so he’s no duffer in it. (1) TIGER SHARK was fitted up for this with a good solid home track win first up, he holds an imposing record on this track (4 from 7).

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: IN FLIGHT TO WIN.

RACE 8

The Group 1 Doomben 10,000 is one of the most open running’s of the race I’ve seen for a long time. With barriers, weather & other factors it’s difficult to find a standout, there’s at least a small niggling doubt about every runner. I am confident the pace will be strong which could set up the race for something off speed & I’m hoping that’s the Victorian mare (14) BENEDETTA who although yet to race on heavy ground has a terrific record on soft. She’s been good all prep & may end up with the last crack. (10) JEDIBEEL comes through the T.J which is a good form reference for this race most years. (12) SUNSHINE IN PARIS, jury’s out in the heavy ground, she’s the class runner however will she get through it ok? (3) MAZU definitely will as will the local hope (11) HIDDEN WEALTH.

Numbers: 14 – 10 – 3 – 12

Suggested Bet: BENEDETTA EACH-WAY.

RACE 9

We close out the day with the Group 3 Rough Habit which is a major lead-up to the Derby. I’m with (1) FIRM AGREEMENT who raced so well over the Sydney carnival clocking in second at three consecutive runs. Without doubt he was very unlucky not to win the Tulloch, chased home Aeliana in the Derby & then closed on Shangri La Spring in the Packer Plate which wasn’t run to suit at all. (14) BELLE DETELLE gets the lethal Waller/J. Mac combo, outsprinted in the Oaks which was run slowly & unsuitably for her, she’ll be right in this finish. The map has (2) SHANGRI LA SPRING as the only leader, he’ll take some catching. (8) LIBERTY PARK at odds is worth including in exotics.

Numbers: 1 – 14 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet: FIRM AGREEMENT TO WIN.

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