Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Very tricky race to map with all runners going to the longer 1350m trip for the first time, many are in fact taking the sharp step up from 1000m at their last start. ADELAD has to go on top with so many queries around most of the other runners, he was strong to the line winning at Ipswich, is by the Cox Plate winner Adelaide & is bred to appreciate the longer trip, I just can’t see any of these matching him late. FELIX THE CAT is well in the market, trapped wide only two starts resumes here with a couple of trials under the belt. Might be the quinella horse.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet: ADELAD WIN

RACE 2

Absolute lottery this race, no confidence whatsoever unfortunately! Thought NAMAKWA was solid enough last start chasing home the since won again Head Of State having missed a run at a crucial stage in the straight when the winner was in full flight. COUP DE TONNERRE might be ready however he’s cost me before, could win or miss a place & I wouldn’t be surprised. HOSTAGE OF WAR was good last week however rises plenty in weight & will likely have a couple keeping him honest up on the lead.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet:  Watch race only, no interest.

RACE 3

Should they all run nos.2, 10, 11 & 12 can supply a genuine at least tempo in the race. I’ve narrowed it down to two main chances & that tempo could be the deciding factor as one gets back & the other is in that leading bunch being the Sydney visitor EYE PEA OH who had no luck last start when held up at a crucial stage in the straight. Out late she finished off well & a case can be made to say she should have won. DA PARTY GAL is the backmarker, consistent mare from the Gollan stable with just the one soft trial, she can really find the line however she may also need the hit out, the market will be our best guide to her chances. MISS BALTIMORE can place back to the shorter trip if not driven mad early.

Numbers: 11 – 1 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet:  EYE PEAH OH/DA PARTY GAL TO WIN

RACE 4

Should all the leading/on-paced runners go around here the pace up front will be nothing less than hectic. SHE’SGOTTHEBOOM is the class act in the race however she may as well be starting from the carpark, where she will end up or how much work she’ll have to do is the unknown. Too many queries here to be taking short prices, I’ve come up with one of only two maiden gallopers in the field being POLARISING who trialled well before looking home on debut being runover late, from the good yard I just have a feeling she might be smart & can likely sit off the pace & come with a late flurry. EN POINTE is another nice type who unfortunately will need luck.

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet: POLARISING SMALL EACH-WAY

RACE 5

Keen on the chances of the ex-Victorian SANTERO who is now with the O’Dea/Hoysted stable. She had her first start for the yard at Eagle Farm recently when settling back last in a race not run to suit at all with the leader controlling & winning. She clocked some very impressive sectionals to pass every runner bar the winner & will enjoy the step up in distance on Saturday. SAGACIOUS drops back from recent runs in open company, up in the weights however likes to lead & the pace doesn’t appear all that strong here. REGAL POM box seats, ROGUE ROCKER always thereabouts.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: SANTERO TO WIN

RACE 6

Can’t tip against BUYING TIME in this race. He burnt the punters fingers quite badly last start when not showing any dash from a sticky draw resulting in him settling back & wide before making ground to the line beaten just over 2 lengths, fair to say he was never a winning possibility though. Previously he’d scored impressively first up & prior to that had won 2 of his only other 3 starts. From the inside draw on Saturday I’m expecting to see a completely different horse. LORD MARKEL is a consistent type fitter for the first up run with Jimmy Orman to steer. Couple at likely good odds who could get into the finish are OVERSEAS & GENTLE PRINCE.

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet: BUYING TIME TO WIN

RACE 7

Tipping/backing horses who settle back in the field at Doomben over short trips isn’t generally a smart move however that’s exactly what I’m going to do in this race. Her name is STELLAR MAGIC & she is not effective when settling close so there’s no chance of her pushing on. Her sectionals first up were the best of the day & fortunately there looks to be good speed in the race, hopefully enough to see those up front cut at each other. Stablemate FETCH will settle closer from the good gate, might need some room late however if she gets it, lookout! Wide gate for STREAKA, wouldn’t rule him out completely though as he’s a tough type.

Numbers: 14 – 12 – 11 – 6

Suggested Bet: STELLAR MAGIC EACH-WAY

RACE 8

Another lottery unfortunately with a big field & again they should run along at a decent tempo. The interesting runner is the new addition to the Tony Gollan yard TENZING who is a lightly raced ex-Kiwi with benchmark form over there. Not raced for 64 days & interestingly no ‘official’ trials the market will be a huge guide to his chances in this race & it’s basically all we can go by. I’m going with the first up SEA PALLING who will also be a market watch first up. Gets Jimmy Orman which is a good guide plus does tend to run his best races when fresh. THUNDER MANIA from a good gate not without some chance.

Numbers: 10 – 20 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet: Happy to watch

RACE 9

CEPHEUS was a huge run first up here two weeks back. Sent out at a big price due to the short trip & perceived lack of fitness he was expected take good benefit from the run, not to produce a weaving, whirlwind finish flashing home into second spot. Stepping up to 1350m on Saturday with that run under his belt he will need luck again from the inside gate however is an each-way price & that’s the way he should be played. JOVIALITY was another to find the line well last start, comes out of a race won by King Kapa who is flying at the moment. RATHLIN if goes around here & not earlier can figure also, wide & game first up.

Numbers: 2 – 15 – 20 – 6

Suggested Bet: CEPHEUS EACH-WAY

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