Races

Andrew Hawkins’ Royal Ascot Preview: Day 1

Posted on | Posted by Andrew Hawkins

RACE 1

As usual, the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over the straight mile is the first of 35 races across the next five days at the historic Berkshire track. A Group 1 race since 2003, it is one of three races – along with the Sussex Stakes in late July or early August and the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in October – that determines Europe’s best miler. From Frankel, Goldikova, Solow and Baaeed to internationals Tepin and Haradasun, there have been some outstanding winners of this race. OPERA BALLO has looked a top class prospect from the day he debuted with a phenomenal effort at Kempton in January last year. Everything came too soon last year but patience has proven a virtue and his two wins this year suggest he may be one of the best milers on the planet. He is the one to beat. No horse has ever gone back-to-back in the Queen Anne Stakes; the last to try, Accidental Agent in 2019, refused to race and so it is 15 years since the previous proper attempt when Goldikova finished second to Canford Cliffs. This is the history that DOCKLANDS will attempt to overcome here. He loves the Ascot straight mile at this time of year – he won the Britannia Handicap here in 2023, was second in the Queen Anne in 2024 and then won last year. He looked good in an open G1 Champions Mile in Hong Kong last start and a return to Ascot is a plus. MORE THUNDER comes off a second in the G1 Lockinge Stakes last start. He was just beaten in the Wokingham Handicap over six furlongs at this meeting last year but has developed into a handy Group horse. His late acceleration up the Ascot rise means he will be the one charging late.  Godolphin’s top seed – or, in my mind, second seed – is NOTABLE SPEECH, who won the Lockinge last time out after a luckless return in the United States. He finished fourth to Docklands last year and looks one to oppose at too short a quote.

Numbers: 7-3-5-6

Suggested Bet: Opera Ballo WIN

RACE 2

The first two-year-old race of this year’s Royal Ascot is the G2 Coventry Stakes for the colts. It is a race sometimes considered the equivalent of the Golden Slipper, but it is closer to the Blue Diamond Stakes (although slightly earlier in the season). Recent winners have included future G1 winners like Gstaad, Bradsell, Caravaggio, Dawn Approach, Canford Cliffs and Henrythenavigator while the honour roll extends back to champions like Mill Reef, Tudor Minstrel and Nasrullah. Unsurprisingly, Aidan O’Brien has won this race on 11 occasions since his first in 1997. He has two leading contenders here but, while the market may prefer CONFUCIUS, it is GREAT BARRIER REEF who looks most appealing. A winner of both starts to date, Great Barrier Reef looked green in winning the G3 Marble Hill Stakes last time out but still quickened nicely. Confucius was defeated on debut but relished the step up in trip to win a Naas maiden last start. On the clock, Confucius rated better but to the eye Great Barrier Reef has more upside. They are drawn opposite sides, too, so it might just be a case of where the race develops; middle to low has generally been better for the earlier Royal Ascot races, giving a push to Great Barrier Reef. At the time of writing, Coolmore’s retained rider Ryan Moore had not been declared on either horse and that will likely swing the market too. If there’s one who can muddy the picture even further for the Ballydoyle pair, it is CUT A DASH from the Richard Hannon yard. A five-furlong winner on debut at York, he had six furlongs stamped all over him. However, he has drawn the same side as Confucius and it remains to be seen if that is a positive. Next best is Yarmouth debut winner SIOUXPERB for Archie Watson.

Numbers: 10-6-5-18

Suggested Bet: Great Barrier Reef WIN

RACE 3

Australia’s Royal Ascot assault begins in the G1 King Charles III Stakes, the five-furlong (1000m) race that Australian-trained horses have won six times since Choisir’s historic victory in 2003. It is extraordinary to think that it is 20 years ago this week since Takeover Target’s famous success and 17 years since Scenic Blast won for Western Australia. Can OVERPASS also take Perth form to the UK and join the likes of Takeover Target, Miss Andretti and Scenic Blast in completing the Ascot antipodean double? A big tick is that Overpass is consistent, something that so many of his rivals is not. He runs high class figures time and time again and anything in that ballpark will put him right in the mix here. He’s won over the Flemington straight six although it never looked entirely natural for him and it does look the right move to go to the 1000m race here with its stiff finish. The high draw won’t bother him as the race will develop around him anyway and most of his primary rivals are drawn out near him. It feels blasphemous taking him on but there does look to be good value in the form of RUMSTAR, who was 10/1 when 14th last year. Trainer Jonathan Portman sent him to Ascot third-up last year but, after returning in the same Newmarket sprint, he decided to give him six weeks between runs rather than racing at Haydock in between. Going in fresh but with a little less ring rust is a positive and he should get ground to suit. He can fight out the finish. NIGHT RAIDER beat Rumstar in the G3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and then won the G2 Temple Stakes at York. He’s in fine fettle and is dangerous on top of the ground. Don’t be surprised if ASFOORA bounces back after two poor efforts this campaign; she looked desperately in need of the run fresh and then the sticky ground was never going to be to her liking last time out. It will be tough for her to win but she will outrun expectations. From an Australian perspective, also keep an eye on STARLUST – he stood at Hunter Valley stud farm Riverstone Lodge last year but has returned to training in the UK. The 2024 G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint will have 70-odd foals on the ground in a couple of months and can potentially enhance their value should he add another Group 1 win to his record.

Numbers: 10-9-8-13

Suggested Bet: Rumstar EACH WAY

RACE 4

The G1 St James’s Palace Stakes is for the three-year-olds over the round mile (meaning it is around a bend, unlike the Queen Anne Stakes which is over the straight mile). It is the final chance – in Britain at least – for the three-year-old colts to win a Group 1 race at a mile against their own age group before they must tackle their elders. It often provides a clash between the English, Irish and French 2,000 Guineas winners – or at least a couple of them – and this year is no exception, although French colt Rayif was a surprise non-acceptor on Sunday. Still, the stage is set for a rematch between BOW ECHO and GSTAAD, who finished first and second in the English 2,000 Guineas before Gstaad went on to take the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Bow Echo was phenomenal at Newmarket and it looked the best victory in that race in more than a decade, somewhat surprising given it appeared a fairly lacklustre Guineas leading in. Hopefully, George Boughey’s colt can again prove that he is the most exciting horse in Europe. Take Bow Echo out and Gstaad enters as an eight-length winner of the English 2,000 Guineas and a three-length winner of the Irish 2,000 Guineas. He also won the Coventry Stakes on this day last year and firm ground looks ideal. He will likely be second best again and should have the measure of every other horse. Of the rest, TALK OF NEW YORK has won three of his four starts and appears to have Group 1 potential but he might struggle in what looks a tactical affair, while G1 Phoenix Stakes winner POWER BLUE could potentially hit the board but has a lot of ground to make up on the top two.

Numbers: 1-2-6-4

Suggested Bet: Bow Echo/Gstaad EXACTA

RACE 5

The Ascot Stakes, over two miles and four furlongs (just over 4000m), is the first of the handicaps this week. It’s a race that has produced Melbourne Cup horses before, including the likes of Thomas Hobson, Qewy and Simenon. The likely favourite will be REACHING HIGH for King Charles III and Queen Camilla, with trainer Willie Mullins looking for his fifth win since 2012 and jockey Ryan Moore chasing his fourth win in the same time span. Reaching High’s dam Estimate won the G1 Ascot Gold Cup for Queen Elizabeth II at the course and distance (just holding off Simenon, a year after he won this race). In fact, Reaching High was favourite for this race last year but was baulked for a run and didn’t have time to recover, finishing ninth, and he has not raced since. He will be hard to beat, but if one can possibly take him down, it could be former German filly ISMAHANE. Second in the G3 Italian St Leger in November, she was beaten by a space in two four-year-old maiden hurdles in Ireland. While her best form was on softer ground on the continent, it wouldn’t surprise to see her come to life under the right conditions here and she could be very well handicapped. She’s worth something at big odds. BEYLERBEYI won the historic Cesarewitch Handicap over approximately 3600m last year. He has top weight of 9st 12lb (62.6kg) – it has been 50 years since an Ascot Stakes winner has shouldered that much weight to victory – but he will enjoy the good to firm conditions. The outside gate also means there is not much room for error for jockey Billy Loughnane. One of the more fascinating runners is TIM TOE, who steps up drastically in trip after winning over a mile last start at Listowel. Trainer Henry de Bromhead is one of the more shrewd jumps handlers around and this five-year-old could be capable of anything up to the extended trip.

Numbers: 14-4-1-19

Suggested Bet: Ismahane EACH WAY

RACE 6

The Listed Wolferton Stakes over a mile and two furlongs (a2000m) has long been an Australian pointer, dating back to when it was a handicap (it is now a set weights and penalties contest). Between 2012 and 2019, six of the eight winners – Gatewood, Forgotten Voice, Contributor, Sir Isaac Newton, Snoano and Addeybb – subsequently raced in Australia. Since then, only future G1 winner Royal Champion – who won in 2023 – has come down under, but the race has been contested by Australian G1 winners like Buckaroo, Sir Dragonet, Magic Wand and Mirage Dancer. This year, the form cycle might be reversed with Australian form being tested at Ascot. ADELAIDE RIVER returned to Ireland as a gelding after two years in Australia. The G1 placegetter may never have been seen at his best for Kris Lees, but his nose second to Birdman in the G3 Kingston Town Stakes reads well now and his seventh behind Sir Delius in the G1 Turnbull Stakes was a good enough effort to suggest he can be competitive here. His return behind top filly Minnie Hauk in the G2 Mooresbridge Stakes was solid and the price is just a representation of the unknowns surrounding him. Another with unknowns about him is NAHRANN, who hasn’t been seen since finishing third to Japanese star Croix du Nord at Longchamp in September. He will be suited back on top of the ground and he’s one that looks to have plenty of upside. GHOSTWRITER makes his debut for trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy, having not raced since the final day of Royal Ascot last year. Only two lengths off Romantic Warrior in last year’s Dubai Turf, he’s right in this at his best. Godolphin’s ARABIAN LIGHT is next best.

Numbers: 1-12-8-3

Suggested Bet: Adelaide River EACH WAY

RACE 7

Day 1 closes with the Copper Horse Stakes, one of the newer handicaps introduced during the COVID era. This has already been a race that has proven pivotal to the Australian spring – Vauban was a runaway winner in 2023 before he started favourite in that year’s Melbourne Cup while Absurde, More Felons, Cleveland, Okita Soushi, Selino and Floating Artist have also come through the race. James McDonald jumps aboard SING US A SONG for the first time. He has run well without winning at both of his starts this season and he looks a likely Ebor Handicap candidate in the months ahead. He can put himself into the frame for that race here. AERONAUTIC had two starts out in Dubai, running well in a handicap before a terrible effort in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy.  At his best, he’s a player – he was fifth in this race last year off one point higher in the ratings. VALIANCY, like Sing Us A Song, is owned by Wathnan Racing. Retained rider James Doyle sticks with him and he has looked good at his last two starts on either side of the winter. He could develop into a Group class stayer. Former French gelding GREEN CAPE is one for the minors at odds.

Numbers: 14-12-10-11

Suggested Bet: Sing Us A Song EACH WAY

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