Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Doomben Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

First Group 1 of the Winter Racing Carnival at Doomben on Saturday with the running of the 10,000. Unfortunately it’s been a wet week in Brisbane & we can be pretty much assured a heavy track, not ideal however it is what it is. Having a throw at the stumps in this opening race putting (3) BOYS NIGHT OUT on top at big odds. He’s been right out of luck with barrier draws of late however this time around draws more favourably & with a positive ride early from Nash Rawiller could find himself in a position to strike in the straight. He certainly has the ability to win should he be close enough to do so. (2) MIDNIGHT DYNAMITE will have plenty of supporters with J. Mac steering, from gate 1 he’s going to lead or be very close to it & the wet track is of no concern whatsoever. Great to see Zac Purton in town, he’s riding (4) COSMO CENTAURUS who lines up for the hat trick, no knock.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet: BOY’S NIGHT OUT EACH-WAY.

RACE 2

Very open looking race where I’ll lean to the consistent (12) ÉCLAIR AWESOME who wasn’t the best to jump last start yet found the line strongly into third spot. She hasn’t missed a placing within her past 6 starts & that includes 2 wins, another typical effort here will see here figure in the finish once again. Last start winner (15) NODACHI & (13) DIAMOND EPIC who will give a start are in the place mix together will the well supported (14) OUR QUEEN who ventures north from Sydney.

Numbers: 12 – 15 – 13 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 3

Going to stick with (3) FABULANTES who’s winning run came to an end at Eagle Farm last start. In my opinion he just doesn’t seem to let down on the surface there & his record shows he’s a lot more comfortable here at Doomben where he’s won twice. The wet track won’t concern him & as long as they are able to make ground, he’ll be there at the business end of the race. The visiting Waller runners (1) BURMA STAR, (4) ESTREMO & (2) HIDDEN ACHIEMENT all in the mix, ESTREMO has won on heavy ground whilst his two stablemates have both placed.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet: FABULANTES TO WIN.

RACE 4

First of the day’s features is the Group 2 Spirit Of Boom Classic where I’m going to back 2 runners. (13) THE AUTUMN AFFAIR is bred to & will appreciate further however with the conditions the way they are this will feel like further & she’s yet to put a foot wrong at 3 starts, once again, if they can run on she’ll be doing exactly that. Definitely having something on (9) DREAM ROCA who finished on well behind a very smart looking type at Eagle Farm 2 weeks ago, she’s back to 1200m which is the same distance she won the Karaka Millions over in New Zealand the start prior. (11) ESPERANZA & (10) DOUBLE COOL queries on heavy ground however should they get through it ok are place chances at least.

Numbers: 13 – 9 – 11 – 10

Suggested Bet: Backing top 2 selections.

RACE 5

(8) COTE ATLANTIQUE has beaten all bar the winner at 3 runs this prep. He ventured to Ellerslie (NZ) first up when narrowly beaten before back home missing out by less than a length his past couple. Outslogged by (7) KRONENBOURG last start in similar conditions to what we can expect today he meets that one a little better at the weights, hopefully enough to reverse the result. (2) WELWAL finished off strongly as is his pattern at Hawkesbury, yet to win on a good track his best form is on wet going which is a plus here. He won’t be $91 this week (7) KRONENBOURG however he’s still a decent price & the wet conditions obviously suit.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 7 – 5

Suggested Bet: COTE ATLANTIQUE EACH-WAY.

RACE 6

Should all the pace in the race remain post-scratching’s we should see a decent speed which hopefully gives those settling midfield or worse a chance. (6) LONHRO’S QUEEN does fit that category as she generally likes to be given time to find her feet, one clear & wound up though she can find the line strongly & with her impressive fresh record & wet track stats she’s a great each-way chance here. (11) NEPO BABY has accepted here & down south at Scone, definite claims in whichever race she turns up in should she handle the quick back up from the Gold Coast last Saturday. (2) THE BLACK CLOUD will find this a lot easier than her past couple in Group 1 & 2 company, she can really motor late & the wet ground suits.

Numbers: 6 – 11 – 2 – 16

Suggested Bet: LONHRO’S QUEEN EACH-WAY.

RACE 7

Keen on the chances of (8) NELLIE LAYLAX who clearly is not the best horse in this race however likely the best placed under the conditions. Really liked the way she found the line at Eagle Farm a fortnight back behind (15) SO YOU ARE & they meet again here with a weight swing of 3.5kg in her favour plus an additional 175m. Clearly a wet tracker she’s yet to place at 6 good track appearances with all 6 wins on soft & heavy ground. (3) ALALCANCE hasn’t quite gone on since coming from overseas however she can improve back in grade & note she gets through all types of going. (5) JUST FINE is another interstate visitor, he tends to mix his form however on his best is in the mix here.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 5 – 15

Suggested Bet: NELLIE LAYLAX EACH-WAY.

RACE 8

The Group 1 Doomben 10,000 is one of the most open I’ve seen for years. What’s not helping is the wide gates some of the main hopes have drawn coupled with the very likely heavy ground. I’ve spent a lot of time on the race & eventually came up with (2) PRIVATE EYE only to see him scratched soon after, typical! Without doubt (1) JIMMYSSTAR is the best horse in the race & whilst his soft track record is a good one, he’s yet to race on heavy plus comes back 200m in distance. Currently favourite I just don’t see any value in his price however won’t be surprised to see him win. (13) SKYBIRD’s best run this prep was in the T. J. when beaten under a length by Joliestar on a soft (7), she handles heavy ok, how much start will she give? Maybe I’ll have a couple of dollars each-way on her as the race this year screams of a likely rough result.

Numbers: 13 – 1 – 12 – 8

Suggested Bet: Wide, wide exotics!

RACE 9

We close out with the Rough Habit for the 3yo’s on the way to a hopeful Derby start. Now that we are highly likely in the heavy range I’ll side with the favourite (8) ACCIDENTAL BID who absolutely romped in at Pakenham last start, I will say he beat absolutely nothing however what more could he do charging clear to the line scoring by almost 8 lengths on a heavy (8) deck. (2) PROVIDENCE is a heavy track placegetter & comes through much, much stronger form lines, he’s the logical danger & is worth a saver. Big watch on the Kiwi (16) SOLID GOLD who comes out of a very capable yard & is on a winning run across the ditch.

Numbers: 8 – 2 – 16 – 15

Suggested Bet: ACCIDENTAL BID TO WIN.

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