Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Eagle Farm Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We were racing at Doomben on Saturday however the meeting has been transferred to Eagle Farm as of Thursday morning due to an absolute deluge of rain. There’s no letup forecast into the weekend & with the track already a heavy (10) this meeting has to be in serious doubt. Whatever the case it’s all about finding the mudlarks. That’s a difficult task in this opening race as being new season 2yo’s they are all yet to see a wet track, in fact only one has even raced! (7) SHE HAD A PLAN won her trial in good fashion at the Sunshine Coast on a soft (5), out of the premier yard I’ll lean her way.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: Market moves our best guide.

Race 2

(5) TARAVIA has run into a now rampaging Captain Maverick his past couple just unable to off the Chris Waller trained stayer. He gets another chance here & although rising in weight this is an easier task & he’s one from one on the heavy. (6) SUPER FAIR was outclassed in the Listed Queensland Cup at her last start; she’ll find this a great deal easier & is a two-time heavy track winner. (2) CIGAR MAN is in good form & should also be given consideration although yet to see anything worse than soft ground.

Numbers: 5 – 6 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 3

(7) CONTILDA’S LOVE found the line encouragingly last start here over 1200m in a race which suited those racing on or near the pace. With the change of venue for this meeting he rises 100m not 150m which will work in his favour & he handles the wet ground well. Northern Rivers trained (4) DO IT FOR YOU has the best wet track record in the race & although big odds his past couple hasn’t been far away on soft (5) going. (5) MUSIC FEVER is unbeaten on heavy whilst the sure to be well fancied (9) READY FOR AIMEE is an unknown in the very wet.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet: CONTILDA’S LOVE EACH-WAY.

Race 4

Here’s a race where I’ll take the punt on a horse with no wet track form & that’s (4) YES DONALD YES who was a good thing beaten at the Sunshine Coast last start, a good run the outing prior & a strong finishing winner the run before that. All were on dry tracks, should connections feel he won’t get through this they will likely scratch anyway. (10) GAULTIER is yet to race on heavy ground, soft track record a good one though & building to a win. (15) RULE THE NIGHT a likely improver whilst (18) BENT BRIDGE is another working up to a win, wet track record abysmal though.

Numbers: 4 – 10 – 15 – 8

Suggested Bet: YES DONALD YES EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 5

Going with (6) NAVY SEAL on an each-way basis. Narrowly beaten by the flying Precise Star at the Gold Coast two back he then gave away too much start here a fortnight back when coming back 100m. He may want further than the 1600m however under these conditions it will certainly feel like further & he gets through the ground just fine. (5) HELL TO PAY could be a risk at the trip however he’s racing in good form. (15) LIM’S SHAVANO has come up favourite in early markets, 1600m does look a stretch on recent runs.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 10 – 14

Suggested Bet: NAVAL SEAL EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 6

(8) DARK ARTS looks very close to a win, ideally this race would be over say 100m further however on a very heavy track it will likely feel that way. Well supported last start he didn’t jump well & was always playing catch-up, his effort to run into a placing was a good one. (16) STRADA VARENNA has come up short in early markets, super consistent yet to see a heavy track though. NSW visitor (2) HARRY’S EVIDENCE hasn’t been racing well down south however under these conditions can improve sharply.

Numbers: 8 – 16 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: DARK ARTS EACH-WAY.

Race 7

(9) ELEVATING is only lightly raced & with a good record to date. Interestingly that record has all come about on rain affected ground, she’s yet to see a dry track & she was narrowly beaten on a heavy (9) which will stand her in good stead in these conditions. Being first up she’s a definite market watch however has trialled well enough to show up fresh. Now that we are racing at Eagle Farm (3) ESPERANZA must be strongly considered off her highly impressive win here last start when powering away from her rivals, she missed a placing her only heavy track run when pulling up with vet issues, soft track efforts all good. (1) COOL GENT a likely improver in these conditions.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 8

Unbeaten on heavy ground (1) FLEETWOOD gets a good chance to return to the winner’s circle here. Placed his past couple he will find this an easier task dropping in class, rising in weight not ideal however Jade Hampson’s claim offsets some of that. (2) MILLANE is impossible to catch however he does like the sting out & he’s going to get that here, will he go forward or back? Chances don’t end there; exotics players need to look wide.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: FLEETWOOD EACH-WAY – Strikes favourable wet ground on Saturday & will enjoy the drop back to Class 6 company. With 3kg off for the apprentice he looks well handicapped.

Race 9 (Best Bet)

Keen on the chances of (10) DOMINANT DARCY who was 5 weeks between runs when in the placings at Doomben last Saturday. Her best form has been on rain affected ground which she’ll certainly get here. Not so sure about the drop back 200m which was going to be 100m before the venue change however I’ll stick. (5) MERCURIAL LADY didn’t set the world on fire with her recent trial; her wet track & fresh record is a good one though suggesting we keep safe. Must include (8) GET READY LASS who loves this track & trip.

Numbers: 10 – 5 – 8 – 4

Suggested Bet: DOMINANT DARCY TO WIN.

Race 10

Keen to back a couple in this closing race being (1) ESJAY & (2) BRINDAVAN. The former should be ready at his third run back from a spell & he will enjoy the weight relief, tough as old boots he’ll handle any ground. (2) BRINDAVAN was a month between runs when chasing the runaway leader here earlier in the month, he took over in the straight however was always a sitting shot, unfortunately for his supporters (me) he was run down right on the line. (14) ALL KINDS OF FOLK backs up from last week when a Doomben winner, loves the ground.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 14 – 6

Suggested Bet: ESJAY/BRINDAVAN TO WIN.




Recent Articles