Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We race at Randwick again on Saturday with the Group 1 Spring Champion the feature on another cracking card. Track rated a Good (4) on Thursday however there are showers about in the lead-up, wouldn’t think we’ll be on anything worse than soft though. We get things underway with a 2yo affair where only Chasing Archer has raced & he was well beaten at $71. Home Affairs colt (6) ROYAL ACCORD went for 300K at the sales which is pretty cheap amongst this bunch, two trials to date winning both which is generally a very positive sign from this stable. (8) TOUR DE FORCE cost well over a million & wasn’t asked for much in his lead up trial, right stable. (12) JENNI IN ROME has also looked good in her trials.

Numbers: 6 – 8 – 12 – 5

Suggested Bet: Monitor betting leads.

Race 2

Highway king Matt Dunn has two going around here being (1) THINK LIKE PADDY & (4) BLUISH HUE, the latter won at this level last start. Don’t see any reason he can’t repeat rising only 0.5kg & jumping from a favourable draw, the additional 100m won’t be a concern. (2) THE OLYMPIAN strips fitter, bred to appreciate the rise in distance & with the claim & good draw has to be included. Chances certainly don’t end there though.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 11 – 10

Suggested Bet: Exotics best.

Race 3

Very open looking Midway. (5) MAIDOFF looks to be progressing nicely, dominant wins his past couple at Kembla yes this is a tougher task however he draws ok & gets Rawiller to pilot, if I had a concern, it would be his soft track record, suggest he’ll want it as dry as possible. (1) HELLOVA NATURE impressed at a couple of wins last prep, may take the run here however keeping on the safe side, betting? Must include (12) SMOKE ‘N’ DARTS who handles all types of ground, lightly raced building a tidy record.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 12 – 14

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 4 (Best Bet)

(5) CIARON’S STAR looks very well placed here. She comes out of clearly stronger races having been competitive at Group 2 & 3 level her past four starts, any of the horses she’s chased home would be very well placed to win a race of this calibre. The unbeaten (2) PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL brought his strong provincial form to the midweeks winning from the front on the Kenso track, this is another major step in class however he can only win & he’s been doing that well. Similar (1) CRESCENT KING who is 2 from 2 this prep bolting in the latest.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet: CIARON’S STAR TO WIN – Holds a class edge over her rivals in this Listed 3yo affair. Placed at Group 2 & 3 level her past two starts that’s head & shoulders above anything her opposition brings to the table.

Race 5

Very competitive race over the mile. I’m a little torn here between (2) CENTRAL EUROPE, (4) WHY SO HARD & (5) OMALONG. (4) WHY SO HARD goes 1200-1600m which is the unknown, whilst he’s been good at both runs to date rising 400m against fitter opposition is concerning. (2) CENTRAL EUROPE still a maiden clearly comes through stronger races, to the eye he doesn’t show any great dash, the class drop is big though, cannot get away from that. That leaves (5) OMOLONG who goes around here third up having improved nicely second up, issues when resuming (slow recovery). The rise in trip looks ideal & he’s got tons of upside, I’ll lean his way.

Numbers: 5 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet: OMOLONG EACH-WAY.

Race 6

Well, I did mention I’d never caught (1) LINDERMANN when tipping him on this site a fortnight back, that record still stands as he had every possible chance yet was unable to hold off the winner Attrition. Am I going again? Unfortunately for connections yes I am! He’s unbeaten here at Randwick over the 1800m trip, will roll forward in a race with little speed on paper & his main threat (2) TOM KITTEN is going to give him a start, whilst I’m a fan of TOM, he might just have too much ground to make up? (7) VIVY AIR mixes her form however last start was an improving showing & the rise in trip suits.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 7

The Group 1 Spring Champion sees all runners go to the 2000m trip for the first time. The main lead-up was the Gloaming Stakes (1800m) run here a fortnight back which resulted in a blanket finish with only half a length between the first 5 runners across the line, never ideal. The filly (8) GLOBAL GOAL comes through the Flight Stakes (1600m) where she overhauled the leader late. Looking at her breeding, she’s no given to run the additional trip however the way she kept on finding the line more in a dour way I’m confident she’ll see it out. I’ve been a (5) STORMY MARCO fan from the Brisbane Winter, his effort in that Gloaming was terrific sitting back at the rear & having to come with a long-sustained run. (9) PROXIM DEA kept her unbeaten record intact winning the Gloaming, can’t knock what she’s doing.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet: GLOBAL GOAL TO WIN (small bet).

Race 8 (Best Bet)

The two-million-dollar Invitation is up next over 1400m. Although drawn poorly I can’t tip against the Group 1 winning mare (1) LAZZURA who again benefited greatly from her first up run to win the Golden Pendant at her last start. Third up last prep she beat all bar Beiwacht in the Group 1 All Aged here at Randwick over this exact 1400m trip, she’ll likely be even further improved for this. Queensland mare (11) ARABIAN ROSE almost landed the money first up; she has a big booming finish & will be looking to mow the leaders down late. (3) VERONA ROSE maps ideally, beaten by the top tip (1) LAZZURA last start she meets her worse at the weights.

Numbers: 1 – 11 – 3 – 9

Suggested Bet: LAZZURA TO WIN.

Race 9

Million-Dollar Five Diamonds Prelude. Group 1 Toorak Handicap placegetter (7) WELCOMETOTHESHOW looks a decent each-way bet. He’s in good form having won comfortably at Flemington the run prior, is already a winner here & handles all types of going. (1) LINEBACKER is the best horse in the race, he’s not one I can catch though, nevertheless he’ll be primed here third run back in what is a drop in class (rises 4kg on latest). (12) DECLICHY BOOULEVARD is a quality mare who can be forgiven for her latest defeat.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 12 – 2

Suggested Bet: WELCOMETOTHESHOW EACH-WAY.

Race 10

Very tough looking race to wind up the big day. Unfortunately the well fancied runners also come up with their share of negatives. (1) ESTADIO MESTALLA (in form however has 61.5kg to lump), (2) ROBUSTO (seriously impossible to catch on the right day), (6) ENCAP (same), (9) ANTHRACITE back 400m in distance & (11) THRICE an import who did little at his first prep however returns as a gelding, likely improver? Maybe. I’ll stick with the topweight even accounting for the big weight, he’s the one in form.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 2 – 11

Suggested Bet: Wide exotics.




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