Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Randwick Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

Day 2 of The Championships at Randwick will be run on a good track under sunny skies, can’t beat that! We’ve got another 4 Group 1’s to look forward to with all interest centred around Autumn Glow in the Queen Elizabeth looking to make it 12 from 12! The Listed Fernhill for the 2yo’s stepping up to a mile gets the day underway, only 3 of the 11 acceptors have won a race suggesting it’s not the strongest & finding the winner looks a task. (6) SALANN was an eye catcher on debut running on from last, that was 1200, this is 1600m, there lies the problem, it’s a decent distance rise & she was $41 at that debut run. There’s a couple of ‘red flags’ however I’ll stick with her. (1) HYDROBOMB has the best form & numbers, hardest to beat. I’ve gone away from the Baillieu form, looks risky for mine.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 2

Giving (8) MARETH one more chance here. A winner first up this prep she figured in the placings next start however hasn’t earned a cheque at 3 appearances since. What she has done is close her last couple of races off well, she hasn’t exactly ‘caught the eye’ however good enough to suggest she may be looking for further & she gets it today. (15) SIRAGUSA is unbeaten, both outings have been at the provincials however he couldn’t have been any more impressive on each occasion. (2) WITHIN THE LAW will be flashing home.

Numbers: 8 – 15 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: MARETH EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 3

I’m in the corner of (4) SCREEN ICON who hasn’t raced since late February when placing here in a Golden Slipper lead-up race. She has been back to the trials though to keep those fitness levels up & from the pole draw this afternoon is likely to land a very soft run. All 3 starts to date have been good & I just get the feeling she may be flying under the radar. (1) MEDICINAL beat her in that recent trial & to the eye did look the more impressive, note it was on heavy ground though. (2) SATONO GLOW is doing nothing wrong, impressive last start whilst (6) CHERRY BOMBSHELL could be another over the odds & (9) REACHIN OUT must be respected off the dominant debut win.

Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet: SCREEN ICON EACH-WAY.

RACE 4

The Provincial Midway Championships Final, & here I was thinking we’d got away without any Midway action on the day… The weekly Midways are usually open betting affairs yet today we have a rich one with a well fancied favourite in Matcha Latte. (8) OUI OUI OUI has an impressive strike rate & although out of the placings last start that was at Group 3 level, obviously he’s much better placed here however his effort in that stronger race was a good one. (5) MATCHA LATTE placed in the Listed Carrington here first up, was game at Flemington before an easy kill at Hawkesbury, hard to beat. (10) OAKFIELD JUPITER next best.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet: OUI OUI OUI EACH-WAY (small bet).

RACE 5

The Australian Oaks was first run on a Tuesday way back in 1885 & has been won by some outstanding/champion fillies such as Surround, Flight, Leilani, Light Fingers & Bounding Away. The shortest priced winner was Session in 1941 who went around at the cramped odds of 1/8! This year we see the Kiwi Ohope Wins heading the early market, can she bounce back from her Vinery defeat?

Let’s look at some stats.

New Zealand Oaks winners record, 22 starters for 3 wins & 6 placings (Ohope Wins).

23 Oaks winners have come through the Vinery Stakes including last year’s winner Treasure The Moment.

Adrian Knox winners record, 70 starters for 16 wins & 20 placings (Profoundly).

Chris Waller the most successful current trainer with 4 wins.

Damian Lane the most successful current jockey with 3 wins (3 of the past 4 running’s).

Longs Legs from the pole gate maps to lead the Oaks field, suggest Stand My Ground will head forward looking to offset her poor draw asap, there are others capable however on paper they look the main contenders. Gut feel is I’m happy to take on the favourite (1) OHOPE WINS who was sound enough in the Vinery without getting excited, I’m aware the additional 400m is a positive however she’s not the only one in that boat. (3) PROFOUNDLY isn’t bred to run these longer trips however she doesn’t know that & just keeps on attacking the line, 2400m is a complete unknown however so was 2000m last week when racing clear over the final 150m. (2) AFTER SUMMER was gallant in the Vinery, she was history at the top of the straight before rallying back late to just miss in a blanket finish, about that, is a blanket finish with 1.1 lengths covering the first 6 across the line concerning? We’ll soon find out.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics

RACE 6

The Group 2 Arrowfield Sprint sees the return of the very classy filly (9) TEMPTED who is unbeaten this prep & of course chased home the Hong Kong champ Ka Ying Rising in the Everest run here back in the spring. Some were keen to knock her last start win as she took a long time to get past Savvy Hallie after cruising up into the straight, the race was run slowly & Savvy Hallie led, she’s a quality filly & with that in her favour gave a good kick however make no mistake, TEMPTED’s effort to gun her down was a very good one. (10) CAFFE FLORIAN will be decent odds here, cracking run last start in an easier race is a filly on the improve, include. (8) MARHOONA well placed off a Group 1 last start in the Galaxy.

Numbers: 9 – 10 – 8 – 1

Suggested Bet: TEMPTED TO WIN.

RACE 7

The 161st running of the Sydney Cup which was first held on a Thursday in May back in 1866. The honour roll lists many greats of the turf such as Kingston Town, Makybe Diva, Carbine & Tie The Knot just to mention a few. The shortest priced winner was Marooned at 8/13 (1986) whilst the longest was Murray King (1926), Tie The Knot won the second of his Cups as an 8/11 shot in 1999. It’s a wide-open market this year with Mister Monaco posted at near enough to $6 when betting commenced.

Let’s look at some stats.

18 mares have won the race, the latest Etah James in 2020.

Chairmans Handicap winners record, 41 starters for 9 wins & 13 placings (Newlook).

Manion Cup winners record, 36 starters for 4 wins & 4 placings (Mr Monaco)

8 of the past 10 winners have carried less than 55kg.

Only 1 of the past 10 winners has started favourite.

Chris Waller the most successful current trainer with 5 wins.

Tempo in the Cup looks quite solid with a number of runners capable of leading/racing on speed. Wow! Where to look… I could make winning cases for most runners & quite possibly miss the winner. With no weight on her back I’ll lean to (14) LITZDEEL who relishes the longer trips & although yet to get out to the two miles I can’t see it being of any concern. Loved what (12) MACHINE GUN GRACE did at Rosehill, she too gets in nice & light however 1900m to 3200m off a 3-week break just has to be a task. (1) RIVER OF STARS brings the class to the race; all runs this prep in better races & his efforts in the big two Cups down south last spring suggest he can win this. No knock (11) MR MONACO who was tough as nails in the Manion Cup sitting wide throughout.

Numbers: 14 – 12 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 8

First run in 1972 this will be the 55th running of the Queen Of The Turf Stakes which was afforded Group 1 status in 2005. Set aside for the fillies & mares the race has been won by some outstanding types such as More Joyous (twice), Fangirl, Scomeld & Typhoon Tracy. More Joyous’ two wins were at very short odds ($1.40/$1.55) whilst the longest priced winner was Diamond Drille at $41 in 2014. Lady Shenandoah heads the early market however most interest will settle around the front running mare Pride Of Jenni who was so gallant in the recent Australian Cup at Flemington.

Let’s look at some stats.

14 3yo fillies have been successful in the race.

Coolmore Classic winners record, 22 starters for 5 wins & 4 placings. (Lazzura).

Emancipation Stakes winners record, 19 starters for 0 wins & 6 placings (Idle Flyer)

Gai Waterhouse the most successful current trainer with 8 wins.

Nash Rawiller the most successful current jockey with 3 wins.

Although back plenty in distance I’d expect Pride Of Jenni to lead, will she get out with a big margin midrace? Perhaps Perfumist makes a race of it early on should she not, Treasure The Moment the other to go forward. To my own detriment I don’t think I’ve ever tipped (1) PRIDE OF JENNI & whilst I won’t be surprised to see her win, I can hardly jump on now. I’m leaning to (2) LADY SHENANDOAH who should land a soft run from the good draw, J. Mac will have her tucked away until they hit the straight & should she be in striking distance look out! (3) TREASURE THE MOMENT was back in winning form last start, the opposition were a lot weaker than she meets here however her class can’t be knocked. (1) PRIDE OF JENNI was outstanding at Flemington; she may well put a gap in them.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 10

Suggested Bet: Box up top 3 selections in exotics

RACE 9

Renamed in 1954 to coincide with a visit from Queen Elizabeth 11 this race goes right back to 1851 when known as the Queen’s Plate run over 4800m (3 miles). Winx & Tulloch won the race on 3 occasions with the champion mare winning hers in succession, the great Tulloch was successful in 1958, 1960 & 61.  The unbeaten Autumn Glow lines up for her 12th win & as expected dominates the early markets.

Let’s look at some stats.

Mares have won 6 of the past 10 running’s including the past 2.

6 of the past 10 winners have started favourite.

Australian Cup winners record, 24 starters for 5 wins & 7 placings (Light Infantry Man).

Ranvet Stakes winners record, 32 starters for 8 wins & 16 placings (Aeliana).

George Ryder Stakes winners record, 11 starters for 4 wins (Autumn Glow).

Chris Waller the most successful current trainer with 6 wins.

Nash Rawiller the most successful current jockey with 3 wins.

Well, there’s no way in the world I’ll be tipping against (7) AUTUMN GLOW who will be looking to keep her unbeaten record intact. Of course the unknown here is the trip, she’s yet to race beyond 1600m however I can’t see the additional 400m causing any concern. Her breeding suggests it won’t & the manner of her wins certainly doesn’t either, honestly I wouldn’t be surprised to see her even more dominant! So who runs the placings? I’d suggest (1) DUBAI HONOUR can & whilst I’m respecting (2) SIR DELIUS & (8) AELIANA both would be better placed over 2400m.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 8 – 2

Suggested Bet: AUTUMN GLOW TO WIN ($1.50 or better)/1, 2 & 8 to run the placings.

RACE 10

Last race of The Championships & it’s a good one for the girls at Group 2 level. Not an ideal draw for (3) GANGSTA GRANNY however on the map she looks highly likely to slide across & at worst sit outside the leader. She was up against it last start giving away plenty of weight to her rivals yet she managed to beat all bar one of them home. Much better placed this time around. (4) CATCH THE GLORY was a big finishing winner first up, kept fresh can definitely repeat. Big watch on the resuming (1) SPLASH BACK who will give a start however can hit the line hard & holds a very impressive fresh record.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

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