Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

Race 1

WANT A WINNER went well unders first-up but this does look an ideal race for him to bounce straight back to form. He raced really fiercely through the early and middle stages and certainly did himself no favours with his manners, but still given the way the race shaped out for him, he was expected to have a bit more in the tank in the home straight. Wonder whether there’s strong consideration given to just leading on him in this small field and using his high cruising speed to advantage? Observation – his two worst runs of his career: both wet tracks. Could also simply not have handled the surface that well? SUNNY HONEY is really the only other horse likely to show any real intent early and he’s been going really well all campaign. Could turn into a Pike – Harvey tactical battle up top. CAPPER THIRTYNINE is a watch at his WA debut. Won a BM78 (~66+) only three starts ago when three deep the trip. THE CALABRESE should be within striking distance in the small field.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – WANT A WINNER WIN

Race 2

IN CONFIDENCE is starting to put together a commanding strike rate as the winner of 3 from 5 in a short career to date. She ran home really well first-up in an unsuitable 1000 and then duly saluted second-up, showing a strong sustained sprint to get over the top of her older rivals. This is another step up into a 66+ but she looks like she’ll land 1×1 and from there she’ll be very hard to hold out. THE CRIMSON PIRATE is a Stakes winning 3 year old resuming in a 66+, it’s great placement (already 72+ placed) and he doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Looks the clear-cut danger. DIAMONDS’N’RUBIES has elevated from a 52+ at York through to a Westspeed and a Graduation win. She’s hard to run down if they allow her to amble to the top uncontested. DEEL HER IN gets 3kg on In Confidence and a much softer map this time around.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – IN CONFIDENCE WIN

Race 3

AMAROO STAR went from strength to strength last preparation, stepping from a first-up 60+ Graduation win into 66+ and 72+ victories. After his winning hattrick he had a mid-prep trial with the programming forcing him into being 28 days between runs when beaten under 2L by sharp Lane Train sprinters Santanova and Haida Gwaii. Last campaign’s first up win was off 159 days, this time in he’s off 154 days. The trial this time around even sharper than last and looks to get the gun run behind a hot tempo. Right place, right time. LONG SERVICE LEAF backs up off a luckless effort 7 days ago. Again drawn barrier 1, again likely encounter traffic. Tricky. GIRLS DAY OUT entitled to fade late last start after doing all the work in the run at 1200m which seems to be right on her limit. SWINGMAN is a model of consistency and has plenty of room to continue his way through the grades this prep.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 7 – 4

Suggested Bet – AMAROO STAR EACHWAY

Race 4

TRUE FICTION (and 5/13 in this line up) is a 4 year old who becomes eligible for this grade for the first time on 1st August. Love the new comers to Westspeed Platinum races over the first half of the new racing season and expect that one of them will get the job done here. He’s an ultra-consistent type and the booking of Paul Harvey to re-instate a senior rider and carry the weight is a show of intent from David Harrison. CHAMPAGNE CRUSADER ran fourth behind Twisted Steel in a Magic Millions last prep. Solid trial (no blinkers) and strong return in a race with more depth than this behind In Confidence. Right race. ROAMING AMERICA won back to back races last prep before finishing third to Ladies Pro and Split The Gee in a 3 year old Plate. Great form for this. COSMIC TREAT was excellent first-up and then woeful second-up. Only need to forgive one run to be a big player here.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 11

Suggested Bet – TRUE FICTION EACHWAY

Race 5

GODS HAMMER was the Perth Magic Millions Sale Topper with a hammer price of $450,000 (ex GST!) and returns for his second preparation of racing. Quite simply if you watch his barrier trial you’ll want to be with him first-up from the ideal draw – it was unreal. Has been gelded between preparations and hopefully that and time are the making of a nice horse.  GODSPEED was a brilliant debut performance and with a 1.5kg weight swing on THEY’REALLSISTERS looks to be a big chance of turning the tables. The issue for him again will be navigating the horror draw but he’s very exciting. THEY’REALLSISTERS is the proven commodity and had to circle the field from last to win first-up. May have to do the same here? THE PERSIAN GOD certainly has a motor. He’ll only get better with age and with distance and looks a real WA Guineas type.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet – GODS HAMMER WIN

Race 6 

SHERPA EXPRESS only had two runs last preparation. Second to Luana Miss at Listed Level in a Placid Ark Stakes (1200) and third to Hot And High in a Lee-Steere Stakes (1400). His barrier trial was alright, you did probably want to see him attack the line a little stronger late, but resuming in a 60+ Graduation with the luxurious 1.5kg claim for Holly Nottle looks a very suitable set up on race day. YES I KNOW was annihilated in betting leading into his first-up run for new trainers Chris & Michael Gangemi. Unfortunately, as soon as the barriers opened the only chance for those punters was for him to be declared a non-runner but sadly, they left their money in the bookie’s bag. Respect the amount of support he had. ROCK THE MARKET was well below her best last week. Quick back-up and back in trip. GODS GATE was finally gelded and that might just be the making of him.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 10 – 7

Suggested Bet – SHERPA EXPRESS WIN

Race 7

SILVER EYE was a revelation when last in work. He had 14 starts in the campaign, rose from a m76 to m88 and won from 1000m to 1500m, as well as being good thing beat at 1800 and placing at 2000 & 2300m. His recent barrier trial was highly exciting and he might just be in for another really fruitful preparation. Everything from 1400 to 2000 in this series of $100,000 84+ Ratings Races suits him down to the ground. Looks an eachway the field race and he’s one of many chances. ANGEL UNDERCOVER put the writing on the wall first-up and now drops 2kg, with a senior rider going on and out to a more suitable distance. TOO DARDY has been racing like he wants 1400 and from the soft draw he’ll get every chance to see out the trip. SENSESSIONAL won the 1400 & 1600m versions of this race back to back in 2025 and looks nearly back at that level again.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 12 – 2

Suggested Bet – SILVER EYE EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Silver Eye (Top 4) + Angel Undercover (Top 4)

Looks a wide-open race to start the 84+ $100,000 race series with most of these to go head to head every fortnight for the next month. Silver Eye is a fresh 1000m winner who has trialled enormous for his return, will need luck though. Angel Undercover ran really well first-up at a trip short of her best.

Race 8

BERRY BLAST attacked the line well first-up at 1200m, missed in the most narrow and deceptive photo finishes second-up at 1300m and then 7 days later got the job done in an ugly race on an ugly day at Pinjarra Park in the near darkness. She’s showing a really nice turn of foot at the minute and she couldn’t have been afforded an easier stepping stone into a 60+ Graduation. This is weak. SHOWLAS hasn’t been the same horse attempting to be ridden cold. She wants to run – it’s clear – and this is a race without any speed or pressure…let her go! STATEWIDE is a 14 start C1 but his ability level is far greater. The Wetsern Miss / Shimonoseki race looks the strongest form reference and he got to the line well in that race. VEXATIOUS ROSE has turned a corner and is racing full of confidence.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 4 – 8

Suggested Bet – BERRY BLAST WIN

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,3,9

1,5,10

2,3,4,6,12

4,5,7,8

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