Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Race 1

We kick off a brand-new racing season at Rosehill Saturday on a track rated good with only the chance of a shower hanging around. The meeting gets underway with a 1400m Midway where I’m keen on the chances of (1) HELLOVA NATURE who has been in sparkling form this prep winning 3 of his past 4 starts missing a placing only once in 7 outings. Beat all bar the in-form Cold Brew two back before sent north for a strong win at Doomben after sitting wide, really liked the way he let down with a sharp sprint. Fresh out of 2yo ranks (12) KRASINA can measure up & certainly draws to gain a soft trip, (9) ATTRACTIVENESS an improver back to this level rising nothing in weight.

Numbers: 1 – 12 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet: HELLOVA NATURE TO WIN.

Race 2

Plenty to like about the unbeaten (7) SOBEK who comes to town with a 100% strike rate having scored at all 3 starts to date. He’s won them all very comfortably & although he hasn’t raced for a month he’s had a trial in between which he also won & in dominant fashion. Good gate, claim, the only unknown is the 1200m. (3) WAYBURN is one of 3 Matt Dunn trained acceptors & we know how good his Highway record is, pretty much two months off the scene having been collared late his last couple at Randwick this grade, market best guide to his fitness levels. (8) SOMERTON SMART & (6) NIMBLE STAR in the mix.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet: SOBEK TO WIN.

Race 3

No less than half a dozen Chris Waller trained runners engaged here & J. Mac rides (2) COLUMBUS who is trained by Les Bridge! Is that a free tip? Well, there was a lot to like about his Newcastle win last start coasting late & the additional 100m will suit, promising, plenty of upside I’m happy to be in his corner. (3) BARKING MAD is an interesting runner, 2 from 2 since resuming as a gelding he’s missed a placing all 5 occasions on dry ground. (4) FUNSHOW next best.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet: COLUMBUS TO WIN.

Race 4

No standouts here, they look a very even bunch, wouldn’t be expecting anything to start short odds. I’ll lean to (6) INTERNAL AFFAIRS however can honestly say I’m concerned about him seeing out a strong 1200m, his run ended last start at the 200m when tackling the trip for the first time however it was on a heavy (9) deck so definitely forgivable. (3) EMBRACE THE WIND not out of it, just needs luck from the wide gate.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 5

Another open looking race. Premiership winning apprentice from the season just gone Siena Grima may be some chance of winning this race named in her honour aboard (7) EXISTENTIAL BOB who should go around near enough to double-figures. Yes, he’s yet to win on a dry deck however has placed 7 of 12 & when he gets to this trip at this level is generally competitive. (10) HORIZONS on the quick back up from last week, did work early which isn’t ideal for a swift turnaround however should she have come through the race well she sets up well here for Zac Lloyd, market? (9) CHEVAL DE BOIS on trial out to this longer trip, another market watch. Happy to pot (3) MO CHROI, disappointing last time & he beat absolutely nothing first up.

Numbers: 7 – 10 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet: EXISTENTIAL BOB EACH-WAY (small bet).

Race 6

Chris Waller produces the favourite in the race named in his honour here being (3) ENVIABLE. She’s got the right form having placed at Group 2 level last prep as well as beating all bar the placegetters in the Group 1 Flight Stakes the start prior to that. Soft return win at Newcastle I don’t consider her a ‘good thing’ here however if close enough to strike likely will. (2) TICKLEBELLY will improve with the run under her belt last start which was her first for 5 weeks. (1) MISS BUSSLINGER in the mix.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet: ENVIABLE TO WIN ($3.00 or better).

Race 7

(8) TARZING is going very well this prep & likely proves too strong for today’s opposition however the one concern is the wide draw, not ideal with the rail out however I suppose when J. Mac rides those types of issues become irrelevant. I’ve got him on top however wouldn’t be launching into the likely short odds. (11) STEEL STRIKE maps well, not the strongest at the end of his races though. (9) FRONTEX in the mix also however similar to the top selection will have to deal with an awkward draw.

Numbers: 8 – 11 – 9 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Race 8

(10) IT’S A KNOCKOUT should be primed to go very close here having hit the line well at her past couple over 1420 & 1400m. She also carries no weight & Zac Lloyd sticks, any give in the ground also works in her favour, look for her to be closing strongly late. (2) RUN HARRY RUN will do just that, he may even lead these & comes into the race off a last start Mildura Cup win, drier the track the better for him. Narrowly beaten at Randwick last Saturday (12) NARBOLD backs up & is very close to a win.

Numbers: 10 – 2 – 12 – 11

Suggested Bet: IT’S A KNOCKOUT EACH-WAY.

Race 9

Wow! This is one open race, should be at least $5 the field providing we do not get hit by excessive scratchings. (6) DARK GLITTER draws an inside gate & is a mare who can produce a late finishing burst, I can see her being smothered away here & should the gaps come in time she’s capable of pouncing on the leaders. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the resuming (12) ALTHOFF run a big race fresh, close up when resuming last prep his latest of two trials suggested he’s not far away, betting? (1) CIGAR FLICK always a chance in any race she goes around in, give in the ground will help her.

Numbers: 6 – 12 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: Wide as you can exotics!

Race 10

Final race of the day is in recognition of premiership winning jockey James McDonald who will attempt to win his own race aboard (10) ZOURIPPER & I’m suggesting he can go close. Fresh off a win & a couple of placings within his past 3 starts there’s was plenty to like about the way he hit the line at Randwick last week, is he a wet tracker though? We’ll get a better idea today. (12) JARRITO is going extremely well at the midweeks, dominant last start he can bring that successful form to Saturday grade & has been well supported to do so. No knock (5) POLYGLOT whilst (3) AMAZING EAGLE should bounce back, valid excuses last start.

Numbers: 10 – 12 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics.

Market Market



Recent Articles