Dogs

The Melbourne Cup and Bold Trease Preview

Posted on | Posted by TABtouch

THE MELBOURNE CUP AND BOLD TREASE PREVIEW

One of the great nights on the greyhound racing calendar has arrived with a stellar card of racing. Eight heats of the Melbourne Cup and four heats of the Bold Trease, both at Group 1 level, are set to be decided. 

Winners only go through for the cup final while top two go through for the staying feature. 

Let’s break down each heat and try and isolate the best chances in this dazzling night of racing. 

Race 1

Heat 1 of the Bold Trease and it’s a tough one for punters to start off. Osprey Storm (1) is in form and steps up to top class for the first time. Drawn to go well. Untapped (4) is getting fitter while Aston Velvet (6) is racing superbly but the staying trip is on her limit. Cawbourne Magic (7) is backing up from Dapto Thursday but is a gun stayer and can go well. Not a betting race for us however with several hopes. 

Selections: 4-6-7-1

Bets: None

Race 2

Another lottery here. Moraine Suzie (3) won well last time albeit with a little luck. Has some class and hard to beat. Keen (1), Ariarne Bale (6), Big Bertha (7) and Lakeview Patsy (8) can all win without surprising. Even the enigmatic Wynburn Chief (5) is some hope if he switches on. First turn crucial here. 

Selections: 3-8-5-7

Bets: None 

Race 3

Now we will get involved. Tsar Bell (3) looks perfectly placed here. Trialled super and gets into one of the easier heats. Will take no amount of stopping late here. Many chances for placings but the fav looks the one with any luck.

Selections: 2-7-3-6

Bets: No 2 Tsar Bell (Win)

Race 4

Final heat of the Bold Trease. Mepunga Ruby (1) is a star stayer but she may not be right at her top. Has the draw however to give this a shake. Zipping Virginia (2) needs to step up now from this box and her best figures in the finish. Stagger Out Lee (8) is ultra consistent and handles all tracks while Emani Bale (6) is better off over a middle trip but is good. Open race to close out the stayers heats. 

Selections: 2-1-8-6

Bets: If either Zipping Virginia (2) and Stagger Out Lee (8) get to $6 plus and present EW value, we will get involved there. 

Race 5

Heat 1 of the Melbourne Cup and some early jets here. Boo Boo Billy (1), Landyn Bale (3), Idolize (4) and French Martini (5) all begin and all have a 5.05 in them so box rise critical. What it will do is create a map where the weapon himself, Zippy Tesla (2) smokes the pipe before unleashing that customary gear change he has up the back. A clear run will see him threaten in the biggest way. Of the leaders, Idolize can surprise if she gets the arm to herself and Boo Boo Billy was huge last week and is ready but not sure about box 1 for him in this company. Plan Ahead (7) and Who Told Shorty (8) are the other run on components but will need luck. 

Selections: 2-1-4-7 

Bets: No. 2 Zippy Tesla (Win) and No. 7 Plan Ahead (Place-heavy EW)

Race 6

This missile did it again last week. Yachi Bale (7) put up another astonishing performance to score and he is simply electric. Can do anything and come from anywhere. I have no doubt he is one of the next big things once he puts it all together. Great price here and gets the verdict at least on an EW basis. Mepunga Mustang (8) has his box and will muster hard here. Strong and can get into this. Baby Jaycee (5) has the pace and will go fast early and Amron Dan (6) runs on late and has a stack of ability. Amplified (1) has her box and has ability from WA but this isn’t Mandurah and Melb cup pressure is very different while Mcinerney (4) isn’t drawn well and will need to fire out. He can’t be dismissed though. 

Selections: 7-8-6-5

Bets: No. 7 Yachi Bale and No. 8 Mepunga Mustang (EW both dogs)

Race 7

What a cracking heat this is. Kelsey Bale (3) = weapon. Shipwreck (4) = weapon. Photo Man (6)= another weapon. It’s pretty much weapons hot here. However the dog that may be overlooked and sneak under some guards is the speedster, El Dorado (2). Has a dazzling turn of foot, runs time and can come from off the arm if need be. Boxed to accelerate into a forward spot here and if he leads, it will take a herculean performance to run him down. Kelsey, Shipwreck, Photo and even Hold Me Up (5) to a lesser degree represent the dangers. Wonderful heat.

Selections: 2-3-4-5

Bets: No. 2 El Dorado (EW all day with an ounce of early luck)

Race 8

She’s had her trial and she will be a different dog this week if she finds the top again. I speak of She’s A Pearl (5) who was superb in the Shootout running a gallant 2nd. Will look for a 5.0 early and will be aided by Plaintiff (4) carving in at the start. Kysaiah (1) punches up the fence with Kanji Victory (7) the other speed element. Zipping Orlando (8) the run on component here and a chance with luck. You would think whoever sails into the back on the arm would go all the way from there however. She’s A Pearl is the best dog in the race, she just needs to get the start right to show that. At the odds, we will play the Zipping Orlando (8) on an EW basis as he represents a very good smokie’s hope.

Selections: 5-8-4-1

Bets No. 8 Zipping Orlando (Place-heavy EW)

Race 9

Huge interest here with Wow Shes Fast (7) engaged. Won the Shootout brilliantly last week but has to line up against a full field this time. It’s a field with pace too with Paddy Wants Pats (2) drawn to lead and therefore hard to stop. Chic (6) steps fast as well and Panadero Warrior (3) has good muster. The dogs who can run into this are both Valor Bale (5) who is vastly underrated and even the highly enigmatic Fred Rose (8) who can do anything when he feels like it. Wow She’s Fast wins with an uninterrupted run but her box manners are a concern at the present. For that reason, we will go around her and play multiple angles.

Selections: 2-5-7-8

Bets: No. 2 Paddy Wants Pats (Win), No. 5 Valor Bale (Place-heavy EW) and No.8 Fred Rose (throw a very small place spec on him and even smaller win spec)

Race 10

Another heat that’s abundant in early speed. Salad Dodger (3) , Vayda Bale (5) and Typhoon Sammy (8) all go fast with Sammy the well boxed runner. That lends itself to Amron Boy (6) winding up for a repeat of last week where he incredibly ran down Shipwreck. He’s No Slouch (4) is perfectly named as he can go quick as well but probably doesn’t run the overall time to win. Titan Blazer (1) capable but not at his top for mine. Dusty Bourbski (9) goes into Box 2 and he will run on late and can hit the podium. 

Selections: 6-8-9-4

Bets: No. 6 Amron Boy (Win) 

Race 11

Intriguing heat. Dynamic Prince (1) looks perfectly placed here with a dog outside him who would need a miracle to win and runs very wide. However, he will get some company early. Devine Empress (4) and Nitro Bale (6) have superb muster and box manners. They will both go fast with Nitro getting better every start. Mepunga Warrior (8) can storm home from the back and is not to be dismissed. It’s the WA bully, Vice Grip (5) who will turn up to punish any of these that intend on getting in his way. The ultimate competitor, he can do it at both ends. Tremendous in the Topgun and for those who thought he did not trial that well last week, i warn you not to be fooled, he will show that he knows exactly when he’s in a race if they allow him to run without trouble. Takes every gap, barges through every space and simply doesn’t lay down. Stack of interest because of all these components with this field.

Selections: 5-6-8-1

Bets: No. 5 Vice Grip (win), No. 8 Mepunga Mustang (place heavy each way), and Box Up 1, 5, 6, 8 in exactas

Race 12

We round out the cup heats with the best value hope of the night outside of Yachi Bale earlier. Out wide, Triumph (8) is way over the odds here. Well boxed and coming off a tremendous 2nd to Kelsey Bale, he will generate a full head of steam up the back and take all sorts of stopping here with a clear run. Fernando Mick (1), Dundee Smoky (2), Quinlan Bale (4) all going fast here looking for forward spots while Zipping Kyrgios (5) will be probing for runs first turn again and is a threat if he gets them. 

Selections: 8-5-1-2

Bets: No. 8 Triumph (EW go all day here) 

FUTURES FOOTNOTE

Keeping in mind the Melbourne Cup is winners only to progress and the Bold Trease is 1, 2, the futures plays do offer a lot of value if you can find them. 

For the Bold Trease, we can take the $6 floating around for Tsar Bell with Tabtouch. Zipping Virginia and Stagger Out Lee may be worth small goes at $26 owing to the fact they can run 2nd in the heats and still progress. No other value for mine at this stage. 

The Melbourne Cup and we have to win the heat to have a live ticket a week later. Yachi Bale $101, Triumph $126, Valor Bale $251, El Dorado $23 and Zipping Orlando $81 all represent sneaky hopes at the odds for those who like to have a spec a week out. 

Remember winners only, so nothing too silly here. 

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