Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

LADY DUCKWORTH looks to have found a brilliant race to break back into the winner’s circle. Trialled enormous behind National Guard at 1200 leading into the preparation before sitting three and four deep throughout first-up. Second-up got a long way back and made solid late ground through traffic over 1600. Backs up off 6 days, rises to her pet distance, drawn a gate and a senior rider on. Ticks plenty of boxes and Darren Taylor’s yard is going super (Puli, Kolchino, Please God, Valley of Queens). Nice race for her. PHENOMENAL ANOMALY is drawn a middle gate but is versatile. Always hard to line up the Heavy9 form so taking him off previous runs on trust. HEAPS OF MOOLAH looked hard to run down last start in one of the weakest C1 events of recent time. LE GRAND RISQUE won well two starts ago and then looked all at sea last start.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – LADY DUCKWORTH WIN

RACE 2

CAPITAL FLIGHT knocked off Senorita Dorotea to break his maiden and then backed it up with an emphatic 5L victory in a C1 with an extra 3kg. He is highly progressive and he has a big turn of foot. Looks to be improving with racing and it’s hard to ignore the way he destroyed them last start. ON THE FULL looks the obvious danger and a legitimate danger at that. Clearly still has a bit to learn about racing (headed by the breeze horse in both career starts and fought them off with ease) and he was nothing short of brave behind Senorita Dorotea last week. FATALE FEMME is knocking on the door and gets the right run. DESERT VIXEN finishes off her races well.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – CAPITAL FLIGHT WIN

RACE 3

VAMPI AT PLAY vs SENTIMENTAL BELLE is likely to be the race according to the market. Expecting that they will take up ~70% of betting by the time they jump and they’ll be equally as popular as each other amongst punters. Siding with the race fitness and race experience of VAMPI AT PLAY who has finished second to Top The Pops (winner of 4) and Final Series (winner of 3). That reads up as super form for what is effectively a 2 year old maiden race and she is drawn a gate to get the right run. SENTIMENTAL BELLE would have been in the market in the Supremacy on debut if she hadn’t gone shin sore. Loved both her trials and looks to have above average ability. MAGNABURMA and MOJO’S LUCK both look like they’ll be winning races sooner rather than later.

Numbers: 10 – 16 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – VAMPI AT PLAY WIN

RACE 4

ALKALINE has been going super since joining Tony Giglietta. Third behind Sunsphere in the Apprentice’s Challenge when wide from the mile marker, backed as if unbeatable in a 60+ Graduation two starts ago when held tight into the corner unable to build any sort of momentum and then struck a Heavy9 at Pinjarra when whacking away to the line. Blinkers off, winkers on and a great pick-up ride for Jason Brown. OUR NORMAN is one who could improve sharply. Gets out to a staying trip (60+ 1800m and 60+ 2000m winner when last in work) and should roll to the top and get things his own way. Keep safe. RED HOT HOPE is racing like he’s wanting further and has a sustained turn of foot. ELDORADO RIVER was the only horse to make any ground behind Kolchino last start.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 5 – 9

Suggested Bet – ALKALINE WIN

RACE 5

PHANTA looks well placed by Chris & Michael Gangemi but will also likely divide opinions. He has 61kg after the claim of Brandon Louis and you would assume he’ll likely be double nominated for the 60+ 1400 & 72+ 1300 at Belmont on Saturday so probably not even a guaranteed starter in this race. If he starts and he finds the front he’ll be hard to run down. Just not sure he’ll be anywhere near an attractive betting price. Wait and see job. SUCCESS PLAY has been given a month between runs and comes back from a mile to 1300. He has solid 3 year old Saturday form and is rarely far from the winner. NORICH is flying. His effort last start behind Puli and Gunmetal Grey on a Saturday in a 66+ was huge. 60kg, tricky map and probably on his limit at 1300m but racing in career best. DALHOUSIE will get back and has a turn of foot which can get her out of trouble. Tricky race.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – PHANTA WIN

RACE 6

SAVANIK looks to have found a suitable assignment. If Ultimate Command is at all vulnerable at the end of 1300m and The Admiral has to do too much work from a wide gate with 59.5kg then it’s Savanik who should take advantage. She’s a get back, run on mare who has raced consistently well this preparation. Holly Watson keeps her at a winnable weight and she just needs to find a back to follow from the 600. Looks a great race for her. ULTIMATE COMMAND toyed with C3 F&M two starts ago and then was beaten 6L on a Saturday. Perfect illustration of the vast difference in quality between Wednesday and Saturday racing. Back in grade and she’s back to a winning chance. THE ADMIRAL has been freshened. Tricky gate but if he can get across to breeze, he’s a live hope. OCEANZARA an improver.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – SAVANIK WIN

RACE 7

DREAM TO ME comes from the small stable of Glen Cortes out of Geraldton. At this time of year Glen is normally racing horses in Carnarvon but he has a filly who is good enough to be racing in the metro area in Dream To Me. She’s a high-speed filly who should find the front without any issues at all from barrier 4. Given a let up after her impressive first two starts and this looks more than winnable from the front for her. HOT BLOODED hasn’t won a race at Belmont after 10 attempts but this is one of the weaker races he has seen in recent times. Finished third to subsequent winners Ghost Who Walks and Storm Commander only two starts ago. REGAL ACCESS sits up over the pace and gives a genuine kick. STELLAR VISTA is quickly running out of chances. Goes round short for her race pattern.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – DREAM TO ME WIN

RACE 8

MONG KHON doesn’t win out of turn (1 from 25) but he is clearly knocking on the door. Finished third behind Without Reg three starts ago, sat off the track and finished third to Ninetyone Dwyer two starts ago and then was absolutely plunged in betting last start. Didn’t look to handle the Heavy9 conditions and couldn’t go with classy type Kolchino when the sprint went on. Never gave up the chase and now back on top of the ground he looks capable of breaking through. Goes round eachway and runs an eachway race. GOLDEN LULLABY returned to Neville Parnham last start and ran out of her skin in a 3yo 0MWLY behind Let’s Galahavant. Beat home subsequent Saturday winner Magnificent Andy and finds this a lot easier. LADY OF BABYLON looks ready to win. Can sustain a run from the back. LET THE DUST FLY will roll across to lead.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 9 – 2

Suggested Bet – MONG KHON EACHWAY

RACE 9

GHOBELLA was beaten a fair way in her trial but it was dominated out in front by speedy filly Sockoff. She wasn’t fully extended, wasn’t wearing blinkers and got to the line well enough. Should enjoy a soft run here leader’s back or three back the fence and in a wide-open race is a chance at double figures. Goes well fresh and rarely runs a bad race. I’M PRETTY will have a lot of eyes on her second-up. She was held up the entire length of the straight at her return and looked to have plenty in reserve. She should get the right run midfield with cover and is always well placed in this grade (4x winner in 58+/60+ company). PAMBELLA is Pambella – punter beware, but her recent form is excellent and she’s likely to go round 20-1+. Maps a treat and got the job done in this grade two starts ago under JJ Brown. LET’S GALAHVANT comes across and if he finds a position is well and truly in the mix.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – GHOBELLA EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,2,3
2,5,8
2,3,7,9
1,4,5,6,7,8,9,10

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