Races

Scott Embry’s Wednesday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MR DELEGATOR backed off the map Australia wide at his return to the races. Opened around $2.60 and jumped at $1.60. He found the front and never really took a breather before being comfortably run down over the final stages. That was first-up, no trial and now he steps to 1400 more than 3 weeks later. Again leads and controls the tempo. Willing to follow-up. WESTERN RHYTHM was her own worst enemy last start, pulling particularly hard through the early and middle stages. Didn’t let down in the same manner as she did on debut. JONO is honest and consistent and box seats. TRADE MASTER made late ground last week in a fast run race.

Numbers: 2 – 11 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – MR DELEGATOR WIN

RACE 2

CONVALESCE comes from what could turn into a big form reference race. Was travelling strongly behind the leader in a solidly run affair and when he got out looked a fleeting chance before First Law dropped a gear. That form is already strong with All Day Session winning when well supported on Saturday. 1400m looks ideal and he can come across to breeze. KALLAROO arguably should have gone mighty close at his last two. Both been luckless eye catchers and with even luck he is the obvious danger. BLUE CHEYENNE comes from the expected hot First Law race. DORADO similarly and had no luck.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – CONVALESCE WIN

RACE 3

PARIS REPORT trialled particularly well leading into last campaign and then won first-up. Here she is first-up, no trial but drawn to get a lovely run one out and one back or one out and two back in a race where there are a few who would like to find the front. Was beaten home by Chatter Session last preparation but gets a 3kg weight pull on her from that day. HIGH RANGE returns to the races and looked a soft trial at Lark Hill (although those back straight trials #sigh). Most suitable race he has seen in a while. SATURDAY SUN was thrown into the deep end last start and got spat out. Worth forgiving with Harvey back on. OHBEEH may need an ounce of luck from the draw but is a progressive type.

Numbers: 5 – 1 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – PARIS REPORT WIN

RACE 4

AVALON BAY showed a devastating turn of acceleration last start. Showed promise in his early days before seemingly reaching a plateau. Robert and Todd Harvey have him in career best form and while he has 60kg to lump and the outside gate he stays in C3 company and is versatile. Rain affected tracks are suiting him and this is no harder. CARLTON CASTLE was officially beaten 14.6L last start but that is far from an accurate representation of his run. Looked to be travelling well before being repeatedly chopped out. BOMBAY STYLE backs up from last Thursday and can run a race. DIVINE QUEST is a mare who needs luck in her races but has returned well and stable on fire.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – AVALON BAY WIN

RACE 5

ABERDEEN QUEEN is a lightly raced filly who is going through the grades impressively. This C3 against the older horses is far easier company than her most recent when backed hard in a quality 3 year old race containing the likes of Indian Pacific, Levitate and Resortman. Looks to enjoy a soft run midfield and should prove too classy. BOLD SUCCESS draws a gate for the first time in the campaign. Big effort last start but has been a long time between drinks. MODERATOR was a strong first-up winner in C1 company. This is definitely tougher but he draws to get every mortal. THE LAST BREEZE is going well but needs luck.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 3 – 4

Suggested Bet – ABERDEEN QUEEN WIN

RACE 6

EXCELLENT DREAM is the best horse in this field by probably 3 or 4L. But drawn gate 14 of 16 in a race where there are at least 4 horses drawn underneath him that have serious early toe means that he looks destined on paper to sit at best 3 deep the trip, possibly 4 deep. Going to be a question of price because you’ll be backing a horse that won’t get any favours in running. MY BLUEBOY has appreciated being kept to the short course. Honest as they come. THE FINEST won’t be an easy ride for Spuds Galati but with no weight can run a cheeky race. LITTLE MISS PRO an improver up the fence.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 14

Suggested Bet – EXCELLENT DREAM WIN

RACE 7

MIRROR MOON may end up three back the fence in a big field with a lot of traffic in front of her but she travelled and let down so sweetly first-up. There is nothing to suggest she won’t be going through the grades and Grant & Alana Williams horses are thriving at the minute. HOTHAM VALLEY drops weight with the claim for Laqdar Ramoly who looks like he is about to really burst onto the scene in the metro area. Loves it wet and has been going well all prep. NATIVE CHIMES will need luck from the gate but this is the easiest race she has seen since returning to Justin Warwick.  FORGOTTEN JEWEL makes his return to the races but the barrier makes things very interesting.

Numbers: 9 – 4 – 13 – 2

Suggested Bet – MIRROR MOON WIN

RACE 8

FALSE STATEMENT is first emergency at the time of writing. Madi Derrick doesn’t have a ride in the race so expecting that if they do gain a start they will go round after scratching from a suitable race on Saturday. Looks a Derrick horse, sit deep and balanced and just keeps coming. If he does start he is a talented horse who was super against the pattern last start and was a huge first-up winner. ABBY LANE returns first-up, no trial and ran very well fresh last campaign. COUNT TOMOZ OFF gets the wet track he has been wanting and Paul Harvey jumps on. Big improver at a price. THREE SECRETS can be hard to catch but this looks a nice race for him.

Numbers: 18 – 12 – 5 – 8

Suggested Bet – FALSE STATEMENT EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 5 – 8)

1,2,3

1,2

4,9

1,3,5,6,7,8,9,10,12,13,18

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