Scott Embry’s Saturday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on May 12, 2023May 12, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MOORUMBINE hasn’t been stepping that well at Geraldton but has raced well in two starts back. Finished second to Justhandy in a 58+ and then only 3L off Justalilfaith, Pure Dynamite and The Witch Doctor (a form reference many will follow heavily throughout this meeting). The lead is up for grabs here and he won a pair of 56+ 1000m scampers at Carnarvon last preparation when leading throughout. Hard to get past if he leads. DEBIT CREDIT clearly has the superior race form coming through a 60+ Graduation in town behind stablemate Land Of Valens and subsequent winner Harmika. If he handles the dirt style of racing then he’s the one. Price dependent between the pair in what looks a match race. MAHUTAS can show speed from time to time. RAGING ROCKET next best.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – MOORUMBINE WIN

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RACE 2

NIGHTS MYSTERY is having his first start on the dirt. Always an element of unknown with these types but that’s offset by the fact that he’s exceptionally quick and should have no worries charging forward and staying out of the kick back. He won two 58+ 1000m races at Mt Barker when breaking open fields over the short course and at his last outing he only finished 3.7L off Tadweer, Mantelli, Madam Kisses and Senorita Dorotea, beating home Men’s Club. Like the fact they’ve gone to the 64+ and snuck in on the minimum. Hard to run down. GRATED COCONUT can show speed and did win a race at Broome last preparation. HERITAGE SASH goes well at Carnarvon and can absorb pressure. REGAL CITY will find 1000m very sharp. He’ll likely be a big follow out of the meeting.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – NIGHTS MYSTERY WIN

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RACE 3

EMPIRE KHAN is a third straight Tash Faithfull/Peter Daly galloper who looks to have found a suitable race at the opening meeting. He’s a 7 year old who has only won 1 from 21 but this is a very thin Class 1. Only had one run last preparation in a C3 1000 first-up no trial and he finished a narrow second between Prince Saiyan and The Full Quid. That’s easily good enough to win this. WHOS YOUR MAMA is quick enough to hold the top in this race and if she did so then could take some running down. Struck a race 10L tougher than this first-up at Pinjarra behind Kamarshall and Devine Belief. ELITE TIME is going well and should enjoy a lovely run from the draw. BELLA SPRITE an improver at odds.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 9 – 10

Suggested Bet – EMPIRE KHAN WIN

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RACE 4

PURE DYNAMITE comes through the Justalilfaith/Witch Doctor/Moorumbine race and while he’s drawn wide he’s the kind of horse who can park three and four deep and sustain a run. Those types usually race well on the dirt because the apprentice riders can simply park them out of trouble and work their way into the race. Think he’ll measure up in what looks the deepest race on the program. SUPERLOVE can be forgiven last start. Prior runs were all strong on speed and Kate Witten can punch through to lead them from the inside gate. ZEEWIJK is the class runner and after Austin Galati’s claim looks well placed back into a 56+. Lovely trial at Geraldton. SHAMARA is one who goes lengths better at Carnarvon than anywhere else.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 1 – 11

Suggested Bet – PURE DYNAMITE EACHWAY

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RACE 5

LEAD GUITAR gets another chance at her dirt debut. Ridden for pure speed along the inside by Maki Morita she could take some running down. She’s often been in front with 100m to go at Geraldton before being gunned down. There’s 1000m racing at Carnarvon, not at Geraldton. Could take running down. OUR KIWI PRINCESS had four starts in WA last preparation in provincial maidens. Impressed at each and every one of them and Tom Pike’s team have been ticking over nicely leading into the NW season. Wide draws can often be beneficial for those having their first start on the dirt. Just needs to jump cleanly. SET THE SCENE has his first start in WA for Sean Rains. Last 750 days Sean has produced 28 horses first-up for 9 winners at 32% strike rate and 125% POT. Big respect. SAMBAZA should win a maiden up here.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – LEAD GUITAR WIN

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RACE 6

THE WITCH DOCTOR is rock hard fit, having her 12^th run of the preparation dating back to November 2022. Ray Malpass has her going extremely well and only four starts ago she won a 58+ 1400 at Esperance beating Westernize and subsequent winner Counter Drive. She’s been ultra consistent at Carnarvon without winning one but possibly her best chance is when she’s already mid-prep and in form. WOJTEK is on the fresh side and is capable of kicking through to lead and roll. JUSTHANDY has been a nice acquisition for Malcolm Mackenzie and gets a gun run from the draw. PRORATED never far from the action at this level.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – THE WITCH DOCTOR WIN

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Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

4,5,9,10

1,4,5,6,7,11

1,6,7

1,2,4,5,7

Market Market