Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

A LOT OF GOOD MEN is the proven commodity returning. His trial was only fair (by his lofty standards) and imagine that’s the reason that Trevor Andrews has opted for a set of blinkers for the first time. Top Of The Walk, Hanchi, Spirited Bay, Guarding Heaven and Pin Deep can all go quick so he’ll need to jump cleanly but if he does then even with 59.5kg he looks hard to hold out fresh. HANCHI went far too quick last start. Stepped to 1400m, Heavy8 surface and they clocked in 5L faster than 2 year old average. Willing to forgive and forget. ODINAKA gets back but has a big turn of foot. TOP OF THE WALK has only been to 400m jump outs but looks sharp.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – A LOT OF GOOD MEN WIN

RACE 2

DIFFERENTIATOR stays in Westspeed Platinum grade, rises an extra 200m and only goes up 1.5kg on her emphatic last start victory. The horse she beat Pray Again goes to the 66+ to dodge her and this looks very winnable again for an in form mare. William Pike suits her perfectly and she’s winding up with a sustained and powerful finishing burst. Really hard to knock. OUTSPOKEN DUKE won’t have to absorb as much speed as recent starts. He’ll likely park on the roughies (Anyoldtime, Float Our Boat and Surveillance) and should pounce on them on straightening. FLASH DUCATI dropped back to a C1 for an easy kill last start. He’s the ’new form’ which is often the good form in this grade. SURVEILLANCE will keep whacking away.

Numbers: 7 – 4 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – DIFFERENTIATOR WIN

RACE 3

MEGA REWARD is 0 from 10 at 1200m which statistically is daunting but he’s in career best form, the stable is on fire and he’s drawn to get every chance sitting leader’s back. He was wide throughout over 1200m three starts ago when finishing fourth behind talented 3 year old pair Bonjoy and Imperialize, won at 1100 two starts ago and then was brave in defeat last start when tramping deep throughout. Double figures in an open and even event. GIVEMEONEREASON has been savaging the line in quality 3 year old races. This is a drop in grade and he’s drawn to get a lovely run. FLURO NEURO is hard to line up. His win down the 1000m straight was brilliant. He’s got a lot to learn and does plenty wrong. Could be three deep the trip? Real X-Factor. HONEY DEW maps to get the run she needs.

Numbers: 3 – 9 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet – MEGA REWARD EACHWAY

RACE 4

SUNNY HONEY and PLANET CASH were both huge runs last start behind Universal Flair on a Heavy8 surface. SUNNY HONEY sat parked three deep the trip without any cover and battled on into third and PLANET CASH savaged the line in an eye-catching return. They’re both drawn better here and both look suited stepping out to 1400m. Siding up with SUNNY HONEY who has the extra run under his belt and can roll forward to sit up over the speed. KELVINATOR was a big win on a heavily rain affected Northam track last start. In a rich vein of form. TRIPLE JAY demolished provincial battlers last start at $1.28. This is harder but he’s progressive.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – SUNNY HONEY EACHWAY

RACE 5

FEAR THE WIND and QUEEN ALINA give Dan & Ben Pearce a big look in at a $100,000 feature race quinella and the pair will hold a mortgage over the market. QUEEN ALINA was thrown in the deep end into the Strickland Stakes at WFA last start and with the weight of late support nearly jumped favourite. Drops 2kg back into a handicap and should only be improving into the preparation. FEAR THE WIND has had the ideal string of ratings races on the program to work his way through the grades against almost identical opposition at his last four outings. Winning form is good form. HOLY ENCHANTMENT gets weight off Queen Alina from recent encounters and Brad Parnham jumps on. DIVINE SHADOW wasn’t too bad last week.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 6 – 2

Suggested Bet – QUEEN ALINA WIN

Same Race Multi – Fear The Wind (Top 2) + Queen Alina (Top 2)

Going to use the Same Race Multi to create a fixed odds Quinella around the Pearce Brothers runners Fear The Wind and Queen Alina. They’re drawn the outside barriers which has to be a slight concern but they’re the progressive stayers in the field and look the stand out pair. Fear The Wind looking for five straight wins and Queen Alina dropping out of a Weight For Age Group 3 Feature.

RACE 6

DEVONIA may well be the forgotten mare in the race. Two starts ago she finished half a length behind Flower In The Wind and meets her 1.5kg better at the weights. One is likely to be favourite, the other likely to be 20 or 30-1. Thinking Lucy Fiore can roll to the top here and control the race. Likely to have Royal Gap for company and hoping the pair can enjoy a mid-race breather and start to put the speed on from the 600. Throw at the stumps. ROYAL GAP had his first start at a staying trip last start and should derive great benefit from it. Worth following anything  from the Maley yard at the minute. FLOWER IN THE WIND is well placed back into a Graduation. Re-handicapping hurts her – up to 60kg. HIS EMINENCE is going well. Just hard to sell yourself on the Riding Hood Fame form.

Numbers: 8 – 11 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – DEVONIA EACHWAY

RACE 7

PRAY AGAIN (can’t believe I’m doing this) looks to have found a suitable assignment. He’s got quirks (understatement) but he also has ability. This looks an ideal set up for him to park midfield with cover in a genuinely run race and present at the right time. Never Sober and Pat’s Got Sass will roll along throughout and he drops down to 55kg coming up in grade. Hopefully Differentiator franks the form in Race 2 and at least we’re getting the eachway you need to be contemplating backing him with actual currency. NEVER SOBER and PAT’S GOT SASS can roll across as a pair and control the tempo from the front. Both hard to get past when they’re at their best. KOSTA’S CROWN charged home behind Probity and has been highly competitive all preparation.

Numbers: 8 – 10 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – PRAY AGAIN EACHWAY

RACE 8 

COLOSSAL has drawn a gate for the first time this preparation and if he can just settle a single pair/length closer in running and reproduce the same L600 he should be very hard to beat. He has broken 33 second L600 in both runs back this preparation and looks to strike a thinner race than first-up or second-up. Always going to be an element of risk backing a get-back sprinter over 1000m but he’s absolutely flying. ULTIMATE COMMAND drops down to 55kg and maps to stalk the speed. That’s where she does her best work from. FIRST LAW has returned in great order. Won well first-up with 60 and then backed it up with an honest effort behind Songaa. FAMOUS JURNEY gave real cheek in front last start.

Numbers: 11 – 10 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – COLOSSAL WIN

RACE 9

MULTINATIONAL will go around a big price after a first-up ‘flop’. That Media Baron race was one of the ugliest to review in recent years and you had to be forgiving of half the field, Multinational included. His trial leading into that event was excellent behind Bitofmerit and he is a two time 72+ winner previously. He’s drawn underneath of Rear Admiral and hopefully that ensures he gets across into a commanding position over the speed. With even luck he should run well at double figures. VANE TEMPEST is charging to the line and from the more favourable alley should get the right run. REAR ADMIRAL was sound in the Raconteur behind Vast Art and Belmont Guineas winner Rusty Dreams. TOP OF THE POPS is racing well without winning.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 11 – 8

Suggested Bet – MULTINATIONAL EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,6,7,8,11

1,2,3,5,8,10,11

11

1,2,5,8,10,11

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