Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on May 11, 2023May 11, 2023 | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PETULA was able to find the front comfortably on debut and then really got away from them in the home straight. She was holding them comfortably on the line and at SWP she carries the exact same weight here on a Saturday as the only winner against otherwise maidens. Lovely set up for her to head to the paddock two from two. DIALLING was a big run in the same race and gives every indication he’ll enjoy the extra distance. Like the way he trialled and stuck on after popping out three deep from the 1000 on debut. PIN DEEP looks to have run into two very nice 2 year olds at the trials this time in. He can kick through to lead on debut and give a sight in front. ANCIENT GUIDANCE ran well in the Sires.

Numbers: 8 – 3 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – PETULA WIN

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RACE 2

PLAYZ WITH FIRE hasn’t been to the races in 500 days but Rob Gulberti has given her two soft trials to prepare her for her return. Love the way she attacked the line behind Lord Gannicus in her most recent trial without much riding and from the ideal draw William Pike can have her poised to strike in behind a spirited tempo (Mordor, Glasgow Girl, Ultimate Command). Hard to hold out if she’s even 75% of the filly who we last saw in December 2021. VALENCY is likely to get back and concede them a head start but if there’s a three deep line she can power into it late. ULTIMATE COMMAND steps to 1200m but can park on Mordor/Glasgow Girl. YOYOS did it tough last start.

Numbers: 7 – 5 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – PLAYZ WITH FIRE WIN

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RACE 3

RUSTY DREAMS is the second in string of William Pike favourites at the opening meeting at Belmont Park on Saturday in what looks an enormous book for the Wizard. Last start she was dug up out of the gates to lead and charged through the first 1000m in a staggering 58:35. To put things into perspective, to the 600 she went ~17L faster than No Change (72+ 1600) and ~25.5L faster than Never Sober (60+ 1600) same day. Back to 1400m and with 1.5kg on Catch These Hands she’ll be extremely popular (again). CATCH THESE HANDS was the beneficiary of that hot tempo and got over her last start. He’s looking to win a 5^th straight race as he announces himself as a Raconteur/Belmont Guineas/Belmont Classic contender. NUNES ran well last start. KING’S SICARIO far better suited at Belmont.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 8 – 6

Suggested Bet – RUSTY DREAMS WIN

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RACE 4

FIRST ENCOUNTER looks a filly with huge upside and potential. She’s got a 5kg pull in the weights on main danger Cobbanco and she’s got a William Pike. She really caught the eye on debut and then gobbled up maiden opposition from a long way off them at her second career outing. This is a big step, as we saw last week with Nod And Smile, but she looks to have a real future and a genuine X-Factor. COBBANCO is the obvious danger on paper. He should be able to slide across into a commanding position and if the filly isn’t quite ready for Saturday racing, he’ll take full advantage. ROYAL ELITE worked to the line well late in her race last start. ADVANCED drops back into a more suitable 60+ second-up and is more than capable.

Numbers: 9 – 1 – 11 – 2

Suggested Bet – FIRST ENCOUNTER WIN

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RACE 5

THOROGOOD has won first-up at his last two preparations and strikes what looks to be a winnable race on paper at an eachway price. His form around Birdieagle, Mahaleo, Henry The Aviator, Be Optimistic, Multinational and Weaponson last preparation more than measures up in this 1300m Graduation and he’s a versatile animal who can roll forward or sit back. LORD GANNICUS is right in the middle of the Pike vortex as he sits aboard his fourth straight favourite. Trial was nice and he maps to get every favour in running. Looks ready to work his way through the grades. COLD SHIZZLE finished 2L off Alsephina in a 66+ last preparation. Quality trial when showing speed at Lark Hill. LITTLE SILVER kicked through to lead last start and it paid dividends.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 10

Suggested Bet – THOROGOOD EACHWAY

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RACE 6

MACK MACK looks like he’ll get every mortal hope to win again. Last start he parked just off the leader and then was trading $1.10 from the 800 as he ambled around in clear galloping room and was too strong for moderate opposition. Drops down to the 54kg limit and looks to enjoy another stalking run following the speedy Excellent Dream. Looks the kind of horse who will track whatever tempo you set and from there he’s hard to get past late. KNOT SECRET was a tough watch last start. He was continually shuffled further back in running with 60kg and never got a flow into the race. Looks the danger. SESSIONS PEAK is in a rich vein of form but again the draw is sticky. EXCELLENT DREAM is a query at the end of the mile.

Numbers: 9 – 5 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – MACK MACK WIN

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RACE 7

PROBITY (yes, another William Pike runner) looks well mapped in this 66+ 1200. Last preparation he really came of age winning a 3 year old 0MWLY and 3 year old SWP 1200 first-up and second-up. He then ran some eye-catching races here and there including running second in a 66+ 1200 with 57.5kg. He now finds himself back down in the weights with 55.5kg, trialled well, maps well and has the man of the moment aboard. Goes round eachway and should run well from off the back of a hot speed (Double Spice, Man Crush, Catalpa). CATALPA won like a horse who would be going through the grades fresh. He can park over the speed and he’s hard to get over late in the race. MISS VASARI trialled well and gets a similar midfield run tracking a hot speed. TRADE WAR likely ends up three back the fence and will need some luck.

Numbers: 12 – 4 – 13 – 6

Suggested Bet – PROBITY EACHWAY

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RACE 8

RESORTMAN is a beast on the fresh side. He’s 1 from 1 off 28 days and 1 from 1 off 35 days. He was massive in the Roma Cup when fourth to Amelia’s Jewel and he worked home as well as any of the WA horses in the Quokka. Drawn to track up behind the speed and will go around eachway in a deep and even edition of the Belmont Sprint. BUSTLER is coming back into WFA after dropping out of the Quokka into a 78+ ratings race and toying with his opposition. 1400m is his sweet spot and provided Stevie Parnham can find a half decent spot from a tricky gate (drawn outside Dom To Shoot and Comfort Me) then he looks to have found a nice race. THE VELVET QUEEN takes on WFA company for the first time in her life. She’s got a massive turn of foot and should measure up. DOM TO SHOOT was electric in the Joey and then cut them down impressively in the Northam Stakes.

Numbers: 4 – 12 – 13 – 3

Suggested Bet – RESORTMAN EACHWAY

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RACE 9 

ROKANORI was unbelievably good when winning a 72+ 1200m first-up at Belmont in May 2022 beating home a talented line-up of sprinters before running second to Devoted in the Raconteur Stakes. Last campaign at Ascot he resumed over 1000m when third to River Beau & Mood Swings but watching the replay he wins with another stride.  Hard to ignore his trial and by this stage of the day William Pike may have put on a riding clinic. Here we go again #pikeorbust. SNOWDOME was massive last start when sitting three deep outside the speed and fighting on bravely. Brad Parnham is 3/3 on the Colt. CAN’T BE DONE never got a crack at them first-up. Forgive. IT’SARAYDAY looks to do it tough from the draw.

Numbers: 8 – 5 – 9 – 1

Suggested Bet – ROKANORI WIN

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Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

5,9

2,3,4,6,12,13

1,2,3,4,12,13

5,8

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