Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SOCKOFF is a very hard mare to run down when she is able to find the front and control. When she can’t find the front she’s simply not interested. Three runs this time in: one impressive win (by 2.5L) and two disappointing efforts when beaten over 7.5L. The only time she has been able to find the front she never looked like being run down. When unable to find the front, she’s been unsighted. Hit and miss type of galloper but gets to lead them here. STORM COMMANDER finished 2.5L second to Sockoff two starts ago and meets her 2.5kg better at the weights. Should bring them much closer together and the barrier is a big plus. REQUISITION is 0 from 15 at Belmont but continues to race well. ULTIMATE COMMAND can land into a prominent position.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – SOCKOFF WIN

RACE 2

TIFFANY STREET returns to the races looking to keep her undefeated status intact. Won impressively on debut from the breeze when really well supported late in betting and then was again crunched at her second outing when holding out subsequent winner Lord Gannicus by half a length at $1.60. This is her toughest test to date but she should be able to stalk a spirited speed battle between Just Go, Man Crush, Capricorn Man and Swim Through. Nice map, nice filly. KOSTA’S CROWN is still a maiden but boasts a Listed placing in the Perth Stakes and a Group 3 placing in the WA Sires. Loved both of his trials. MAN CRUSH is a different horse when he finds the fence. Expecting him to come out positive. JUST GO ran well first-up and defied an aggressive betting drift.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – TIFFANY STREET WIN

RACE 3

PROTÉGÉ takes on the older horses in a 60+ Graduation after dominating maiden opposition on debut. Ran them ragged with an all the way win which was 5L faster than maiden average and unsurprisingly the horses in behind him have all been the target of big money and have duly saluted (Multinova Man and Here’s Dreaming, with Shooting Kontiki, Jono and Black For Cash to race Thursday at Northam). This is a big step up but he attracted the attention of national and international buyers with his debut and looks to have a big motor. HARMIKA wasn’t herself first-up. Thinking she’ll be ridden with more aggression here to sit off Protégé. REAL GRACE never got out at any stage last week. SPIRITED SESSION has a tough map ahead of him.

Numbers: 8 – 4 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – PROTÉGÉ WIN

RACE 4

NO CHANGE is no star but when he finds a race where he can sit up over the speed and control, he’s hard to run down. Dropped back to 1300m last week and found them a little sharp but on the 7-day spin around up to 1400m and in a race where Paul Harvey looks likely to dictate terms he can bounce back. REIGN OF FIRE let rip with a powerful turn of acceleration last start. Colin Webster’s team are firing on all cylinders and he should park midfield poised to unleash. WESTERN KNIGHT steps to 1400m which on face value should be suitable. Looks like being three back the fence in a muddlingly run race. Don’t think he’ll be pretty viewing if he gets over-racing and caught up in traffic. VOGUE’S CHOICE is drawn sticky. May have to roll forward and breeze.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – NO CHANGE EACHWAY

RACE 5

BENJI’S was allowed to stride by Steve Parnham in an astute piece of tactical riding last start which was rewarded with a career best win. Big run three starts ago in a strong form reference race behind Multinational (Multinational, Benji’s x2, Mr Mt Walker and 7 individual place getters), did what he had to at Northam and then dominated them last start. Can stalk the speed behind Deel Red and Noble Born and gets a great sighter at a winning hattrick. NOBLE BORN is clearly the danger. Was able to control the race last start and kick clear in a Westspeed Platinum. Likely has to sit outside Deel Red here and do a bit more in running. POWER OF ST GEORGE isn’t an easy horse to catch but he’ll be winding up late. DEEL RED wasn’t too bad at his Ryan Hill debut.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – BENJI’S WIN

Same Race Multi – Benji’s (Top 2) + Noble Born (Top 2) + Power Of St George (Top 4)

RACE 6

BUSTER BASH, WESTRIVER MIRACLE and BLINDER met last start in a 72+ 1600m race and a fortnight later clash again. BUSTER BASH concedes Westriver Miracle 1.5kg and Blinder 2kg here but on the other hand he also looks like he will stroll to the top and control the race. Tough front runner who will no doubt be hard to get past again. WESTRIVER MIRACLE is drawn alongside him and may well elect to roll to the breeze and ensure he doesn’t get away from them on the corner. Very little between the pair. BLINDER can park on them and fill out an obvious trifecta. TAXAGANO an improver back into a 72+.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 5 – 2

Suggested Bet – BUSTER BASH WIN

RACE 7

GO FORWARD was huge last start behind State of Power. Meets him 2kg better at the weights, draws a far better barrier, maps to get a far softer run and most importantly he gets a drier track. Spins the wheels on the soft surfaces so provided there’s no unexpected rain over the next 48 hours he looks to have found a great race. ALL DAY SESSION has raced a little below his best over the last month or so. Ash Maley goes back to basics and brings him back to the 1000m scamper. CJP jumps on, he should get a soft run behind a genuine tempo and with clear galloping room can bust through late. DON’T FUSS gets in well at the weights after the 3kg claim for Dyson and always runs well on the quick back-up. STATE OF POWER is in great form but she looks a chance of being caught deep here.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – GO FORWARD WIN

RACE 8

RESORTMAN seems to relish being three deep at Belmont where he can work through his gears and work into the race from the 600. You would think on paper that one of Staralign or Vane Tempest get left three deep no cover (Great Again leading Phanta) and that should mean in theory that Resortman lands his preferred position in running three deep with cover. Handicap conditions means he concedes big weight to many rivals from the Bolton, Newmarket and Idyllic Prince but he’s in great form. WESTERN TEMPLE went forward last start and wasn’t disgraced. Could end up in the three deep line here following Resortman into it. Improver. PHANTA comes back to 1400m, gets in on the minimum and can park up outside of Great Again. GREAT AGAIN is racing well.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 3

Suggested Bet – RESORTMAN WIN

RACE 9

ADVANCED was all the rage first-up and while he went under at $2.20 in review the run was better than it reads on paper. He was travelling strongly into the corner, had to push his way into open galloping room and then mis-strode quite noticeably at the 200m. Should get a gun run second-up and should only improve for the outing. HOLY GHOST is not an easy horse to catch but he’s come back to racing well and is proven off 7 days. GINGER BAKER is becoming frustrating. He’s clearly going well but he always tends to find one better than him and can always find a bit of bad luck. WEAPONSON was scratched last week and in a race without any speed could use his versatility.

Numbers: 8 – 6 – 4 – 3

Suggested Bet – ADVANCED WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

3,5,6

1,2,5,7

2,4,7

2,3,4,6,7,8

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