Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

VAMPI AT PLAY raced wide on debut and kept coming in a high speed 1000m scamper at Ascot behind the highly talented filly Revitup (winner of 4 from 5). She was immediately tipped out by Neville Parnham and returns here off the back of a slick 1000m trial win at Belmont. Thinking she can take up a forward position, settling in front of Top Of The Pops and with a 5.5kg weight pull at SWP give this a shake first-up. TOP OF THE POPS rises to 59.5kg which is a big ask for any 2 year old. He is undefeated to date and can let loose with a big turn of foot. 1400m back to 1200m and with fact he’ll be nearly back last with the weight is the query. UPPER LIMITS ran well on debut and trialled up nicely for his return. FASHION STAKES could nearly kick through to lead on debut in a race without any speed.

Numbers: 6 – 1 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – VAMPI AT PLAY WIN

RACE 2

THE VELVET QUEEN settled in a different postcode to Zephyra last start and managed to charge home into second and run her to a length. Gets a 1.5kg weight swing on her in this race, looks suited stepping out to a mile and looks like sitting leader’s back following her every move. There is no speed in this race outside of Zephyra so logically Chris Parnham is likely to follow Pat Carbery throughout in a sit and sprint affair. Gets her chance to turn the tables. ZEPHYRA will likely find herself in front by default and will get things her own way. Doesn’t look to be a breeze horse and Pat Carbery can rate it to suit himself. MOJO RHYTHM is racing well and while he lumps 60kg he is proven at the mile. PASSION PRINCE beat absolutely nothing on a heavy8 last start.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet – THE VELVET QUEEN WIN

RACE 3

PREMIUM CHOICE beat main rival Scandolo by just over 3L two starts ago and only meets him 2kg worse at the weights. Is drawn a gate to enjoy a near identical run and seems to run for Paul Harvey. This is his grade and while he looked plain to the eye last start there is a pretty big difference between these Westspeed Platinum races and 60+ Graduation races even though in theory they’re only 1kg different in quality. Expecting him to bounce back. REQUISTION and SCANDOLO met on New Year’s Day with Scandolo winning by half a length. There is however a 3kg weight swing in favour of Requistion from that encounter. SHE’S ENCHANTED has a horror map ahead of her.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – PREMIUM CHOICE WIN

RACE 4

GUNMETAL GREY looks to have found a suitable assignment here. Towards the end of last campaign she finshed second to Bright Diamond (beating home Angelic Miss and Chantorque) in a 66+ 1200 at Ascot before heading to the Listed Jungle Mist and Jungle Dawn when beaten under 2L in both. First-up resumed over 1000m and was run off her legs, second up finished off well behind Mercanto and Cross Statement and now finds herself in a 66+ 1400m where she is drawn barrier 1 and follows likely leader Wakan Tanka who will give a kick into the straight. Nice race for her. FANGIO was a winner first-up no trial last campaign in a 72+ 1400m at Belmont off the exact same day spacing. Keep safe. CRESCENT CITY trialled up well and should land in a nice position. LA FAROLA is well suited back into a 66+. Racing below her best but this is her grade.

Numbers: 6 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – GUNMETAL GREY WIN

RACE 5

GINGER GREEN is racing really consistently and is starting to race more tractably. Thought he hit the line well when held up at a crucial stage last start in a solid form reference race (Atlantis Beach, Sluice Box, Canny Jack) and it was also a race where the leaders were stopping in his lap and he was still travelling. Should land one out, one back here and goes round eachway for a horse who rarely misses the money. Shaun McGruddy doesn’t get the same airtime as a Chris Parnham, Clint Johnston-Porter or a Patrick Carbery but he should: last 90 days = 56 rides for 14 winners at 25% strike rate and 31% POT. SUCCESS PLAY is really well placed here by Neville Parnham. You would think he’ll roll forward to breeze outside of Kolchino and this 60+ Graduation is lengths weaker than the 3 year old 62+ races he comes from. KOLCHINO is building. STREET FAIR had excuses fresh.

Numbers: 1 – 8 – 5 – 7

Suggested Bet – GINGER GREEN EACHWAY

RACE 6

PICCOLA SIGNORA didn’t see out a strong 2000m last Saturday. Dropping back to 1650 (tick), backing up off 7-days (tick – previous winner off the back-up), drops down to 53.5kg (tick) and seems to go really well sprinting off the back of moderate tempos (tick). Looks a really nice set up for her and while she’s deep into her campaign she meets a field where she clearly has the most upside. DOUBLE DIGIT is ready to win. Ash Maley’s yard is going great guns since heading back to Belmont Park and he can position up closer this time. MEDIA BARON is in a similar boat. He’s an older horse who has found his right race. LONEHAND LARRY hasn’t been the same horse since he won three starts ago.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 2 – 9

Suggested Bet – PICCOLA SIGNORA WIN

RACE 7

EURASIA is as honest as they come. He’s no world beater but this is a very, very thin 0MWLY staying race. With the early favourite likely to be a last start 54+ winner drawn wide we simply have to look to find value elsewhere. EURASIA went to the Albany Cup only three starts ago and finished within 3L off Tena Koutou and Sugar Cain. Last time out he finished fourth behind Piccola Signora in a 70+ and now drops right back into a 57+. Shaun McGruddy rides the box seat brilliantly and he should have sufficient toe to hold up behind Stocktaka and Bold Success. Nice race for him and goes round eachway. SHADOW GIRL has been solid at two WA outings and now gets out to her preferred trip. She was slightly held up last start with 60kg and still pulled late ground off Ground Braker. BOLD SUCCESS pulled the trigger a fair way from home last week and peaked on the run badly. Forgive. PHENOMENAL ANOMALY only won a 54+ last start at $7. He has to jump a similar quote here.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 1 – 6

Suggested Bet – EURASIA EACHWAY

RACE 8

MY BOY EDDY is a progressive kind of 3 year old who is starting to put it all together. Like the fact that Alan Mathews has avoided the temptation of taking him back to the 3 year old mile and running into The Velvet Queen and Zephyra and instead takes on the older horses in a 60+ 1300. He is drawn a nice gate and while he always gets back in running regardless of where he is drawn he should be able to enjoy a nice midfield run and is starting to really attack the line. Double figures is attractive. GLAMOUR PACKED jumped out of the ground half way down the straight fresh and just looked to peak on the run late. Better draw and better for the outing. REBELZONE is flying and going through the grades nicely. Probably settles near last from the wide gate though. FASHION QUEEN goes well fresh and it’s a nice use of the claim.

Numbers: 5 – 12 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – MY BOY EDDY EACHWAY

RACE 9

VALOUR ROAD looks a nice eachway bet on the program. He really caught the eye first-up hitting the line well in the Roma Cup and at this stage of his career he is better known at 1400m/1600m. He is drawn a gate to settle close handy to the speed, his regular rider Brad Rawiller returns to the saddle and he is proven at WFA. Ticks plenty of boxes and you get the eachway insurance in a pay 1,2,3. Looks like he will be right place, right time and give this a shake. RED CAN MAN is a deserving favourite having run second to the best sprinter in Western Australia at his last two starts. Winkers come off and he’ll settle in the first four in running again. No knock on him. MASSIMO should be the big improver here. First chance all campaign to cross and find the fence. Did beat Valour Road at WFA last preparation. AMASENUS is just a winner. She’ll settle three back the fence and pick her way through late.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 16

Suggested Bet – VALOUR ROAD EACHWAY

RACE 10

SNEAKY CHANCE picks herself in the last. She stepped out to 1200m last start which was a widely acknowledged query by both trainer and jockey. She loomed the winner at the top of the straight but couldn’t quite reel in Cross Statement who has since run second to Mercanto in another 66+. She drops back to her pet trip of 1000m and maps to stalk a genuine speed behind Olga Louisa, Trevern and Imprudent. Looks really hard to hold out late. STATE OF POWER looks the danger. These late season 3 year olds are really well suited against the older horses and State of Power can reel off a sharp L600. IMPRUDENT ran out of his skin last start behind Nowhiteflag. TREVERN will likely have to do it at both ends.

Numbers: 10 – 11 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet – SNEAKY CHANCE WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,3,4,5,6,8,11
1,2,5,6,7,9,12
2,5
10,11

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