Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

REVITUP should simply be too quick over the 1000m for her rivals. Rises to 58.5kg at SWP but provided she doesn’t miss away from barrier 1 then she’ll kick through, find the front and then start to roll from the 600. Expecting her to start to sneak away from them and get them chasing a fair way out. Has broken 24 seconds in both her 400m jump outs which is an indicator that she’s back as good as last campaign. Hard and fast is how she wins her races. Could get really ugly from a market perspective. BORN AND BREAD and CAPO VELOCE had a great battle on debut down the 1000m straight at Pinjarra. A 2kg weight swing and a better barrier draw gives BORN AND BREAD the chance to turn the tables. CAPO VELOCE should only improve fitness wise considering she was coming off a 400m jump out. TROPICAL SUN ran home well on debut.

Numbers: 1 – 3 – 2 – 4

Suggested Bet – REVITUP WIN

RACE 2

HARDLY EVER looks the map horse here, especially with main danger Sniparoochy drawn in barrier 9 of 9 with speedsters Prince Ragnar, Pat’s Got Sass and Tadweer drawn underneath her. HARDLY EVER should naturally lob one out, one back, following a genuine speed and then produce at the top of the straight. She has always had a big following and is starting to fulfil her potential. Belmont Park suits her and the Patrick Carbery/Simon Miller train is full steam ahead at the minute; last 90 days as a combination: 51 rides, 18 winners at 35.3% strike rate and 19% POT. Book a seat. SNIPAROOCHY demolished 60+ opposition from the breeze two starts ago and then overaced in a messy race last start when missing the money at $1.55. Back to 1200, back to her own age group, she can rebound hard. TADWEER was a solid WA debut. PAT’S GOT SASS is always hard to get past.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – HARDLY EVER WIN

RACE 3

IMAGE KEEPER brings alternate form through a 70+ at Kalgoorlie and a 58+ at Geraldton which certainly don’t jump off the page at you as form references, however, he looks like getting a brilliant run here in a race with above average speed. Gates of Babylon, Wild Front and Safety Bay are all likely to contest the early lead and that allows Image Keeper and the pick up King Shaun O’Donnell to park in behind the speed and poke through late at an eachway price. Open race and one of many live chances. SAFETY BAY would be the clear on top selection if she wasn’t drawn outside both of Gates of Babylon and Wild Front. Not entirely sure where she gets in the run, but if it’s anywhere but three deep without cover she should go well. SILKINIZE is well suited to this grade but can be hard to catch. GATES OF BABYLON’s best wins this, but we haven’t seen his best for a while.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet – IMAGE KEEPER EACHWAY

RACE 4

VIA MONTE vs ALSEPHINA is an exciting clash that will likely divide opinions. VIA MONTE wasn’t suited first-up after dumping the rider in the prelim and then settling leader’s back in a sit and sprint scamper: first 400m was run 9L slower than average. With Warm ‘n’ Fuzzy, Diamond Blue and Arracity engaged here it’s likely we’ll see a far more genuine tempo and that should allow VIA MONTE to bounce back and unwind his powerful turn of foot. ALSEPHINA is undefeated after two outings and while she has enjoyed ‘cutaway’ style runs along the inside on both occasions she has finished off with some powerful late sections. This is her toughest test yet but you get the impression she’ll be measuring up. WARM ‘N’ FUZZY rolls along and makes his own luck. STYLAX was a sharp first-up winner with a big weight.

Numbers: 5 – 10 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet – VIA MONTE WIN

RACE 5

MY MATE looks a great eachway bet in this event. He is the winner of 4 from 6, he is a leader and there is simply no pressure whatsoever in this event. After the 3kg claim for Victoria Corver he gets in with even less weight than what he carried to victory in a 60+ 1400m event last start when holding out the late challenge of sharp 3 year old The Velvet Queen. With all eyes firmly planted on Advanced he might just hold up eachway in early betting and if he gets it as cheap as it looks on paper he’ll take real running down. PRAY AGAIN had no luck at all first-up when tramping three and four deep throughout. He has some upside and should get a better run here. ABOVE THE PEG is flying and now that he has been gelded is racing with much more versatility. ADVANCED demolished them at Northam on a Soft7 in a C3. How does that form line-up? Too short for mine.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – MY MATE EACHWAY

RACE 6

KAYMAY looks to have found a wonderful Saturday race. There is no speed at all in this event so there’s every chance that Kyra Yuill will be forced into the role of pacemaker, however, when sitting in the breeze with 59kg four starts ago she showed a great turn of foot on straightening and was able to hold them out. Thinking that if she has to lead, she’s capable of racking, stacking and turning it into a sit and sprint to suit herself. Took a very in form mare and a very in form rider in Piccola Signora and Laqdar Ramoly to gun her down last start. BEAT THE BRO was good first-up behind Otheroneson and Kia Ora Star. Not suited to the pattern of the race last start. GALACTIC STORM backs up off 7 days and looks a really progressive 3 year old. ACTING GOD is emerging through the grades.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 9 – 7

Suggested Bet – KAYMAY WIN

RACE 7

ARAGAIN goes round at an eachway quote every time she goes to the races and rarely runs a bad race. Her three runs for new trainer Brain Kersley have been near career best and she was only bobbed out by General Grant right on the post last start at Ascot. Gets 1.5kg weight swing on him and importantly for a little mare like her she drops down to 55kg. Maps to stalk likely leader Special View in a genuinely run 2000m event and present at the right time in the home straight. ATLANTIS BEACH might be better than 66+ grade in time. He carried the weight of Western Australia 7 days ago and didn’t let punters down. He looks like he will eat up the extra distance and looks a deserving favourite. PICCOLA SIGNORA smokes the pipe three back the fence and hopes for luck. SLUICE BOX has been due some luck for 6 months now.

Numbers: 10 – 6 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – ARAGAIN EACHWAY

RACE 8

POWER OF ST GEORGE loomed into the race first-up at Pinjarra like he was going to gun them down. Unfortunately, he couldn’t quite get past a brave Star Present but he put the writing on the wall for the Skyracing TV Provincial Championship Series Final at 1400m. The barrier is of no concern because regardless of where he was drawn in the line Joey Azzopardi would be looking for three and four deep cover. These races are normally a swoopers affair in the home straight and he fits that profile. DOUBLE SPICE was plunged last start but pulled way too hard in the run and had nothing to offer late. Willing to forgive and forget, he has X-Factor. STELLA FAIR will roll forward and she has really come of age this preparation. JAKESTAR was some sort of win at Kalgoorlie. Will need a big race ride from Kate Witten.

Numbers: 8 – 1 – 12 – 11

Suggested Bet – POWER OF ST GEORGE EACHWAY

RACE 9

IT’SARAYDAY will be all the rage in the final event on the program. He is a star in the making and the way he won first-up suggests that he’s the kind of animal who will string a few together this campaign and go right through the grades before they tip him out and target him up at something big over the Summer Carnival. He’ll park on likely leader’s Excellent Dream and Timely Outburst and travel like the winner throughout. He’s quickly becoming one of the most popular horses in WA. LIWA ran home in a quicker L600 than him last start and gets weight on him. She will need to settle but the blinkers coming off should help that. STARTRADE brings country form to a hot 72+ but he has some serious firepower. ALL DAY SESSION beat Kissonallforcheeks in a 72+ 1200 at Belmont last campaign.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 9 – 8

Suggested Bet – IT’SARAYDAY WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,9
2,3,6,7,8,10
1,2,4,5,7,8,9,11,12,(17)
6

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