Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Belmont Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BRAVO CENTURION was backed into $1.45 last weekend before lunging forward and breaking through the front of the barrier just prior to the start. He was a late scratching and 7 days later has found a race just as winnable. Expect he’s got the speed to burn off Ain’t No Other Man and strut his stuff again on his way through the grades. SONGAA was run down by Under Influence two starts back but does meet him 4kg better at the weights for a half length defeat. SOFIA’S SYMPHONY ran well behind subsequent $100,000 feature winner Ginnivan last start and third at Listed level prior. UNDER INFLUENCE loves racing off 7 days.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – BRAVO CENTURION WIN

RACE 2

QUEEN OF JERUSALEM has backed up twice previously and placed on both occasions and on paper it looks like the race last week that contained Iowa / Filthy Habits / Candlelight Supper Stop Dreaming had a bit more depth than this. Gets every favour from barrier 1 and just needs to hold form to be right in the mix. BERBRAE has only won once from 20 starts but her two runs this time in for new trainer Tony Triscari have been arguably career best. MASTER TACTICIAN is out to 2100m for the first time but the form out of his last start win is holding up brilliantly. FLASH PADDY outstayed them in a grinding 2100 at the mid-weeks last start.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – QUEEN OF JERUSALEM WIN

RACE 3

ARCADIA PARK went straight into the Blackbook of every WA punter last start after he was caught up in a world of traffic when looking to be travelling strongly behind Bondi Bay. Scratched from a weak maiden Thursday to save for this, drawn well, Pike rides and gets 2kg on Mean Machine from their Pinjarra Scarpside encounter where Arcadia Park beat him home. Looks a great race for him. MEAN MACHINE has since won and held off a seemingly talented type in Shmoov Moova. Looks likely to again park in the breeze and prove hard to beat. BATTLE COMMANDER gave plenty of cheek last time he raced over 1400. SECRET INTENT caught the eye on debut.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 1 – 9

Suggested Bet – ARCADIA PARK WIN

RACE 4

KEEP ATTACKING backs up off 7 days out of a fast run race behind in form galloper Silver Eye, draws barrier 1 and gains the services of William Pike. Take away the Heavy9 run where he was beaten out of sight and his form throughout the campaign has been strong and this looks a very winnable set up for him. Likely to be popular. ELBOW LOUNGE is only 1 from 16 but he’s run some massive races in defeat. Loved his fresh run from a mile off them in a C1 under an apprentice. LOVA SESSION finally shook her bridesmaid tag last start and it’s remarkable how often those types go back to back. ELITEONE maps to get every chance.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 8

Suggested Bet – KEEP ATTACKING WIN

RACE 5

DEFERRED was sectionally brilliant in defeat last start. The first 700m of that race was run 7.5L slower than average and then they’ve sprinted home 10L quicker than average L600. She’s done a remarkable job to get within a length of the leader and winner who was handed the race on a silver platter. She’s flying and she’s back in grade. NO BRAINER was another horse on that same program who took advantage of the on-speed/rail dominance and duly saluted. He’s a ripper. LOST CITY is a more than handy mare resuming. JELLY CAN RUN is racing well on the wet tracks.

Numbers: 4 – 3 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – DEFERRED WIN

RACE 6

DESERT NYMPH has gone from a C3 to a 60+ Graduation to a 71+ and won three on the bounce in complete dominance and style. She’s now backing up off 7 days, dropping in grade and has lobbed a small field where she can be ridden quietly and unleashed in the home straight. Beat Otheroneson, Sentimental Belle and Angel Undercover last weekend. This is looks easier? BRAVE STRIKE looms as the obvious danger. She’s returned in good order after a freshen and is bursting to win a race. CRUISE TO VICTORY gets weight relief coming up in grade and maps soft. PLAYHOUSE PATRON may be wanting further?

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 7 – 1

Suggested Bet – DESERT NYMPH WIN

RACE 7

SENTIMENTAL BELLE has made her way through the grades really impressively this campaign. She won three on the bounce before she found herself in the ‘wrong’ part of the track late in the day on a 10 race program two starts ago and then last week ran into the flying Desert Nymph and the highly talented Otheroneson. 1 from 1 off 7 days and back in grade. TOROPA faces clearly her toughest test to date. She’s won 4 from 4 and continues to get the job done but she’s never faced a horses like Sentimental Belle/Mama Tembu/Leniency/Snippy Which. Huge respect. LENIENCY ran well first-up and woefully second-up. MAMA TEMBU was outstanding first-up.

Numbers: 2 – 8 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – SENTIMENTAL BELLE WIN

RACE 8

RIVER RUBICON went into the Pinjarra Classic first-up last preparation and gunned down quality mare Searchin’ Roc’s in the shadows of the post. He heads into the Farnley Stakes first-up and has to be given consideration at double figures. He’s 3 from 6 first-up, he’s 3 from 7 on rain affected tracks, he’s drawn to get the midfield run he desires and he rarely runs a bad race. Don’t be surprised by him. TRIPLE JAY is looking to win his fifth straight race as he bursts his way through the grades. First time into Listed company but gets every chance from barrier 1 with Pike. MAGNIFICENT ANDY is the class horse and is a proven weight carrier. VAST ART is ready to win.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – RIVER RUBICON EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Triple Jay (Top 3) + River Rubicon (Top 4)

Triple Jay has won his last four in style and now heads into Listed Company for the first time in his career. He’s drawn barrier 1, he’s got William Pike and he’s proven himself extremely versatile across this campaign. Should get every chance to fill a hole. River Rubicon goes super fresh and can add some big value into the SRM if he can wind up into the Top 4 late.

RACE 9

HEMLOCK STONE toyed with them last start. He sat three deep the trip in a race where they marched along through the middle stages and powered away from his opposition late. He lines up in a much deeper race here but if he can settle and enjoy a favourable run from his ideal barrier then he’s more than capable of winning again. IN GOOD ORDER loomed large fresh and just peaked in the final 100. He’ll improve for the run and looks to be in for a big preparation. ANTIQUE STAR didn’t beat much in her C1 win but it was more about the way she lengthened late and extended right away late. KERMAN ROCK has returned in good order.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – HEMLOCK STONE WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

2,4

2,8

1,4,5,7,8

2,3,8

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