Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

PURE DEVOTION will be an extremely popular way to start a mammoth 10 race program for punters on course at the opening of the Tabtouch Masters Series. May meet Reliable Star 4kg worse at the weights for only beating her home by three-quarters of a length last start, but the added bonus of W.Pike to the saddle offsets that. He’ll put her into the race at the right time and she’s progressing nicely towards a Perth Cup tilt. BLACK SHADOW should be able to completely turn his recent race pattern upside down. Expecting him to lead this event after settling last first-up and second-up. It’s nothing new for him he’s done it before and has been highly competitive in higher grade than this racing on speed. RELIABLE STAR is going well. Never easy for apprentices to win staying races. PRAYING WITH GOD grows a leg off the back-up.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 6         

Suggested Bet – PURE DEVOTION WIN 

RACE 2

REVITUP will bounce straight on the bunny and takes running down in the Crystal Slipper. With all eyes likely to be firmly planted on the impressive trial winner Left The Building she may well sneak out past $3 and that will be attractive. Crossed and lead on debut when beating talented colt Snowdome and hails from the jump and run stables of Dion Luciani. Kept fresh and likely to find the fence and give a powerful kick on straightening. LEFT THE BUILDING could not have been any more impressive at trials. Sat back last, raced greenly and then descended upon them to score in a brow raising display. Looks hugely talented. MAN CRUSH hit the line well on debut from an impossible position. BLEECKER STREET chased hard on debut.

Numbers: 6 – 4 – 2 – 1          

Suggested Bet – REVITUP WIN

RACE 3

BRAVE ANGEL is particularly well placed here by Simon Miller. S.A Miller always seems to win a race or two on the Masters Days and thrives in the atmosphere, this is a Stakes winning mare who is now back into a 59+ Graduation. May have to lump a career high weight but hasn’t seen opposition of this nature in the last 6 months. Last time she was at 1800m she won the Listed Ascot 1000 Guineas and from the draw Patrick Carbery should have her poised and ready to strike. MY SQUEEZE LOUISE only won a lowly C1 at the midweekers, but it was more about the way she got away from them and her race pattern that suggests she can measure up. JARMAN is in career best form and can now be put into a position. CONQUERED ZONE can box seat in a race which looks like being dominated from the front.

Numbers: 1 – 10 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – BRAVE ANGEL WIN      

RACE 4

PROCONSENT put the writing on the wall last start. Was on trial at 1600m and was racing in a 72+. Savaged the line better than anything outside of the winner Comfort Me, who off that win heads to the Railway Stakes. Proconsent drops back into a 66+ and provided William Pike can keep him in touch with them through the middle stages he looks capable of gunning them down late. BIG SCREEN is in a purple patch of form. May have to absorb a bit more pressure here mid-race with Majinika and Ginger Flyer drawn awkwardly. KORANIS is a barrier horse. Whenever he draws low to get a soft run tucked away, he goes well. Keep safe at a price. GINGER FLYER continues to race well and backing up off 7 days finds another winnable race.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 2   

Suggested Bet – PROCONSENT WIN  

RACE 5

FLYING MISSILE looks the one to beat in the Placid Ark Stakes at Set Weights and Penalties. Was backed from $15 into $4.80 first-up in the 3 year old Classic when drawn wide and enduring a torrid run in transit, bounced out of that to finished third behind Searchin’ Roc’s and It’sarayday in the Belgravia before finishing third to Buzzoom and subsequent Champion Fillies winner Searchin’ Roc’s in the Burgess Queen. Drops back to 1200m, gets in with 54.5kg and finds a race where she can probably work her way to the fence if that’s where Chris Parnham wants to be. Looks a great race for her on paper. LIWA won the 3 year old Classic when showing a sizzling turn of acceleration late in the race. Got too far out of her ground in the Belgravia and was ridden upside down in the Burgess Queen. Dangerous from the barrier. FATALE FEMME has come back to racing well and maps a treat. AIN’T NO OTHER MAN looks like enjoying a gun run in the box seat.

Numbers: 6 – 3 – 7 – 2     

Suggested Bet – FLYING MISSILE WIN

RACE 6

HOT ZED and SON OF A GOD come from the red hot Wilchino race 7 days ago. They broke 1:09 for the 1200m in a 72+ event which was run almost 6L faster than class average and saw Wilchino attract nationwide attention as one of the highest WFA Rating performers of the weekend. HOT ZED was three deep and working with 60kg chasing that ludicrously strong tempo and now he drops to a career low weight, is a noted back-up horse and is drawn a barrier to enjoy an economical run. Hard to beat off last week’s effort. SON OF A GOD can box seat on the back of Vital Silver and get the tow ball run he requires. Good to see him bounce back to some sort of form. VITAL SILVER will likely be the best weighted horse in Australia at SWP as a m104 rater with 55kg. Now or never. WESTERN TEMPLE goes very close if he can reproduce his run in the Northam Cup.

Numbers: 10 – 11 – 7 – 2

Suggested Bet – HOT ZED WIN   

RACE 7

TREASURED STAR vs IT’SARAYDAY vs BUZZOOM is a mouth-watering WA Guineas Clash. The question punters are faced with after the Burgess Queen is ‘do you follow up with Treasured Star after she got KO’d or do you drop off?’ I’m going to go again because she looked ready to explode through the gap before Buzzoom did exactly that from half a stride in front of her and closed the door on her. Grant & Alana Williams bypass the Champion Fillies and put a set of blinkers on the exciting filly and we’ll put our trust in W.Pike to find an opening and show us all what is underneath the hood. IT’SARAYDAY looked a moral in the Fairetha Stakes and the punters were duly rewarded with a $2.50 to $1.60 plunge. Enjoyed the run of the race and the boys look weaker than the girls, but from the gate Patrick Carbery can stalk Champagne Dame’s every move. BUZZOOM was exposed in the Champion Fillies and will need luck from the draw. DEVOTED might be the forgotten horse. Not too bad in the Fairetha and maps much better here.

Numbers: 13 – 2 – 10 – 7

Suggested Bet – TREASURED STAR WIN   

RACE 8

WESTERN EMPIRE will jump odds on in the first Group 1 of the Masters. $2.80 post-Asian Beau, $2.10 pre-barrier draw, $1.85 post-barrier draw, $1.75 at the time of writing and likely to hover somewhere between $1.75 and $1.60 throughout betting. William Pike will have the weight of a nation of punters on his shoulders and Western Empire looks the winner on paper in the Heineken 3 Railway Stakes. From the barrier he has option and his victory in the Asian Beau was just at another level. His trials suggested he was back bigger and better, and the performance underlined his name as WA’s most exciting miler. If he does get the job done the atmosphere at Ascot might just be a bucket list moment. KISSONALLFORCHEEKS booked her start last weekend in the RJ Peters when bullying her way into the clear to score in the final strides. Will end up in an identical position here and again will need gaps to appear. NOTORIOUS ONE was sensational in the Asian Beau. If he stays balanced and races 80% tractably, he’s a threat. KAY CEE is a Group 1 winner and has been building and building to her Grand Final.

Numbers: 16 – 10 – 12 – 9   

Suggested Bet – WESTERN EMPIRE WIN

RACE 9

CHANTORQUE should land into a perfection position here second-up. Resumed without a trial and with 60kg in one of the key form races behind race favourite Bright Diamond. Gets a 3kg weight pull from last start, a barrier to be put into a position close handy to the speed and the King of the Pick-Up Ride Shaun O’Donnell to steer. Worth consideration at a double figure quote. BRIGHT DIAMOND has never missed the money in her life and broke through for an overdue win last start. Looks to be hitting form at the right time and will be very popular. SHEZA CHALMER resumed in a 72+ behind Wilchino and Triple Missile. That form speaks for itself and she’s already a Listed winner herself.   ANGELIC MISS is another like Chantorque who gets 3kg on Bright Diamond at Set Weights and Penalties. From three back the fence she’ll need to navigate traffic.

Numbers: 4 – 9 – 6 – 11  

Suggested Bet – CHANTORQUE EACHWAY

RACE 10

GOD HAS CHOSEN is super progressive and won with his eyes closed last start, however, he was scratched last week with a hoof abscess and is 1400m back to 1200m. Doesn’t possess much gate speed and in a near capacity line-up might be ugly viewing at stages. W.Pike may need the pogo stick but given the book of rides he has on the Railway Stakes program, more than willing to push aside better judgement and go with the horse in traffic because the Wizard could be staring down the barrel of a bag of winners. MERCANTO dropped another gear in the last 100m on Melbourne Cup Day to gun down Trevern in the shadows. Serious win but a nightmare gate. TIMELY OUTBURST was never in the race first-up. All eyes on her in the first few strides to see where she lands from barrier 3. VADETTE DE STAR is bursting to win a race.

Numbers: 11 – 12 – 8 – 14

Suggested Bet – GOD HAS CHOSEN WIN

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

2,10,13

16

4,6,9,11

1,8,11,12,14,15

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