Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MELARAB resumes at 1600m but has the benefit of two impressive 1000m trial wins. Only lightly raced and in comes into a race where the majority of runners really have had their chance. With only 55kg and a positive ride Melarab should nearly land one out and one back. From there he looks like he will be right in the thick of things at the finish. REDMILL likely bounces straight to the front and takes full benefit of the 20km/h Easterly winds forecast which should push him along. NICK OF TIME has come back in super form for Greg Evans and he is really knocking on the door. TRADE FAIR EXPRESS always around the mark but simply doesn’t want to win.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – MELARAB WIN

RACE 2

BEAU ZOOM was extremely well thought of in all of his Victorian maiden races when going round short on nearly every occasion. He has been gelded since his last start, blinkers went on in his most recent trial and he was powerful through the line. Looks like he can cross to the fence from gate 12 and if he does find the top they’ll struggle to catch him. SILENT ACT ran her characteristic race first-up. She can finish off powerfully but tends to find one better every time. AT WAR has been a bit disappointing this preparation but comes back into maiden grade and draws a gate. KEYTRADE really caught the eye on debut with a huge run but likely has track and wind conditions against his race pattern.

Numbers: 1 – 9 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – BEAU ZOOM WIN

RACE 3

FATALE FEMME was the winner of the initial plate when sitting three deep the trip no cover. At set weights and penalties conditions she rises 2kg but takes on no stronger opposition. She likely ends up in the box seat from gate 1 which can be tricky for youngsters but she was super professional on debut and should only improve for the outing. DIAMOND BLUE set the track alight in a 400m jump out, flying along in blistering time. Likely to jump and run. RISING COMMODITY was a nice trial at 850m and should hold a prominent position from the draw. THE LADY IS A VAMP was excellent on debut but the draw makes it tough.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 9 – 4

Suggested Bet – FATALE FEMME WIN

RACE 4

BONNEVILLE BLACK was unable to make it four wins on the trot last start when he simply pulled himself into the ground. In hindsight Madi Derrick may have let him roll and used his staying ability which is his biggest strength. Senior rider goes on and he looks far more suited being right over the top of a genuine tempo. Looks well placed to bounce back into the winner’s circle. DOUBLE DIGIT finally won a staying race last start and did it the tough way. He is in form and really appreciated the appointment of Chris Parnham who sticks. MACKENZIE BROOKE is building to a win but she always needs luck with her race style. MOSSERATTI is knocking on the door and racing in extremely consistent fashion.

Numbers: 5 – 3 – 2 – 8

Suggested Bet – BONNEVILLE BLACK WIN

RACE 5

SOPHIE’S SONG will be big double figures and is simply a different commodity when racing at Ascot. With Em Tee Aye and Kelvin drawn wide she can position up just in behind them and enjoy the run of the race. On a day where we expect the vast majority of winners to settle right over the speed she could be worth a nibble at the price. DOM TO SHOOT will likely land in the three deep train which is exactly where he scored from last start. Well placed against the older horses and again gets the luxurious 2kg allowance as a 3 year old. NAUGHTY BY NATURE never saw daylight first-up. Looked to be bolting behind heels and is far better suited at 1400. WESTERN PRIDE is going to need some serious luck from the draw but she has a powerful turn of acceleration.

Numbers: 9 – 3 – 10 – 6

Suggested Bet – SOPHIE’S SONG EACHWAY

RACE 6

LACEVINSKY was a far better run that it will read on paper last start. Worked hard early to find a position before being crossed by Cliffs of Comfort and This’ll Testya. Got knocked around when travelling well before the corner and he was held up while the three deep train was swooping over the top. Another runner on the program who maps to get the right run in the conditions and will be double figures. OCEAN’S FIFTEEN and THE FUGAZI are highly talented horses but both have their quirks and issues. They’ll both be back and wide and will need some luck. COMES A TIME gains a start with the early scratching of Snippiranha and his trial was super. 3 year old form strong for a race of this nature.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 1 – 17

Suggested Bet – LACEVINSKY EACHWAY

RACE 7

CLAIRVOYANCE will have the eyes of the nation on her as she continues to savage her way towards a Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes. From a map perspective it looks identical to the 3 year old classic where she simply parked outside of Gemma’s Son and then monstered him from the 400. She is producing WFA Performance Ratings which WA hasn’t seen for a long time and even with the bar going on she’ll jump deep in the red. QUEEN BROWN put in an eye catcher first-up and will only get better and better as the distances increase. Lands three back the fence and looks the likely second place getter. MYSTICAL VIEW won’t get any favours in the run but her last 200 at Northam was incredible. GEMMA’S SON finds the front, controls the tempo but will be under the Clairvoyance stare a fair way out again.

Numbers: 4 – 7 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet – CLAIRVOYANCE WIN

RACE 8

CLIFFS OF COMFORT simply worked way too hard last start to cross from the outside. He blew himself up in the run and this looks a far more suitable race for him. Should cross relatively comfortably in a race without a deal of genuine top end tempo. His effort two starts ago to punch into the breeze at Belmont was enormous and he’ll actually have the breeze at his back this time round. Gets 2kg on Celebrity Queen and had her measure for 1198m at their last meeting. LAVERROD backs up off 7 days out of the Crawford Stakes and from the box seat behind Cliffs of Comfort he enjoys the run of the race. CELEBRITY QUEEN will be gunning them down late but concedes them both a fair head start. LONG BEACH can be forgiven for one poor performance. His 1000m win was electric.

Numbers: 11 – 2 – 8 – 14

Suggested Bet – CLIFFS OF COMFORT EACHWAY

RACE 9

BOGART comes out of a Kalgoorlie 66+ where he was run down as an odds on favourite but he falls into an Ascot race that is no deeper. From the draw he should be in the box seat stalking the speed from Cuban Twist and Cornflower and he looks really well suited stepping to 1800m. CUBAN TWIST is lightly raced and should nearly roll to the top in a race without any genuine tempo. Gets her chance to win a Saturday. BIG SHOT PADDY was back to his usual self last start and is peaking at the right time. MISS DOMINICAN is proven at the trip and will be finishing off powerfully late.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – BOGART WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,4,5,8,10,14,17

4

2,8,11,14

1,2,3,5,6,7

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