Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

SKY DUKE was no match for JAZ SESSION last start at 1000m but this time around: A) it’s 1200; B) he gets a 1.5kg weight swing; and most importantly, C) he maps to find the front on a day with a seriously strong Easterly breeze at his back. Luke Campbell needs one more winner to out ride his claim and it could be Sky Duke. JAZ SESSION missed in a bob of the heads first-up with Cessation (now a 72+ winner) and then has won her last two outings impressively. FORTUNE’S LUCK broke a long run of outs last week and maps in a similar spot. CRYPTIC JOY is still looking for a run!

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – SKY DUKE WIN

RACE 2

SNITZALATTE trialled like a filly who would be winning on debut and that was exactly the outcome. She was a little slow away from barrier 1 (which is again a slight concern) but she was able to muster up into a prominent position and showed a sharp sprint once clear in the straight. Takes natural improvement and this is a nice stepping stone towards a Karrakatta birth. SPICY THANG and HARD SOLO were both there for a long way behind a nice filly in God’s Rapture. STATEWIDE really caught the eye on debut behind Capitola and King’s Court.

Numbers: 11 – 10 – 12 – 1

Suggested Bet – SNITZALATTE WIN

RACE 3

WATCH ME ROCK would have been a good thing beat last start if the gaps didn’t appear for him. The fact he was held up until the last 100m and then still burst through for victory just shows that he’s got a few lengths on these. Expecting him to meet with plenty of support in betting and get the job done again on his way to a Railway Stakes prep. FLURO NEURO would have been the beneficiary if Watch Me Rock didn’t get through last start. Going super but not quite at the same level. MEMORY PARADE ran out of her skin considering her rating. WITHOUT REG has come back in career best.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 5

Suggested Bet – WATCH ME ROCK WIN

RACE 4

OUR ROCKY BAY went toe to toe with Filthy Habits last week over 1600m and only folded up late. He’s better suited back to 1400m and he’s found a race without much speed and pressure on a day where there could be up to a 30+km/h Easterly breeze at his back. Hard to run down in the conditions. PLAYING GAMES was stiff last week. She (and the favourite Be Bardot) were both travelling into the race at the top of the straight but neither saw any daylight. By the time that the gaps appeared the race was over. 7-day back-up and Pike back on. ANGEL UNDERCOVER has had a great prep. WESTERN POWER trialled up well.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – OUR ROCKY BAY WIN

RACE 5

SAIL SESSION won the JC Roberts in an arrogant manner. He sat parked three deep the trip, he sailed (sorry) away from them on straightening and was soft on the line. He and WA Oaks favourite Machine Gun Gracie will both be awfully short but no doubt plenty will play the double (~$2.80). PLAY FAIR certainly doesn’t have the same wow factor as Sail Session but he’ll stay all day. The further the better for him. Bring on the 2400m of the WATC Derby. PLEASE MIZTER gets leader’s conditions to suit. Just needs to settle early stages. SUPERFLUOUS is just grinding. Hopefully shades help.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet – SAIL SESSION WIN

RACE 6

WEST STAR is out to strut his stuff on his way towards a potential Quokka slot. A 3 year old at WFA would be attractive to a few remaining slot holders and there’s little doubt that Simon Miller has timed his run and attacked this race strategically. Trialled super, can track up behind Cessation and Norich and that looks a near identical run in transit to when he beat September Born in the Belgravia. BRAVE SPIRIT won a Raconteur as a 3 year old and was eye-catching first-up last campaign behind Cosmic Crusader and Keep Attacking. Respect. CESSATION is rapid. NORICH is rapid.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – WEST STAR WIN

RACE 7

NOBELLITY copped pressure from Sure Thing from the ~1000 last start. This race is a completely different set up with her leading unchallenged. Gets things her own way, on a day that should really suit leaders and with only 53.5kg she’ll be very hard to get past. OBJECTIFY won a C1 1200 on a Heavy8 first-up and then bolted in a 3 year old 1200 second-up. Soft trial, undefeated fresh, nice map, nice mare. CHARINO is a 3 year old feature winner in a 60+ Grad. Great placement. PRINCESS IN RED overcame a 56 day spacing hurdle to score last start.

Numbers: 7 – 2 – 1 – 4

Suggested Bet – NOBELLITY WIN

RACE 8

MACHINE GUN GRACIE was massive in defeat in the Ascot 1000 Guineas and then was simply dominant in the Natasha Stakes. She was able to lead and control and the 100-1 pops that surrounded her provided her a nice buffer into the home corner as she slid away from them in the home straight. See no reason why she won’t take a stack of beating again in the WA Oaks (and then the WATC Derby). TWILIGHT TALE is bred to stay and never gave it away in the Natasha. FUNCHAL draws to concede them a big head start and that’s a concern. SUMMER’S LEGACY has blinkers on. Always respect a Grant & Alana Williams gear change in a feature.

Numbers: 2 – 3 – 6 – 4

Suggested Bet – MACHINE GUN GRACIE WIN

Same Race Multi: Machine Gun Gracie (Win) + Twilight Tale (Top 3) + Funchal (Top 4)

Machine Gun Gracie won the Natasha Stakes by nearly 3.5L leading from start to finish. Twilight Tale finished second, Funchal finished third. It’s the key lead up feature race and it’s hard to see the results being too different in the WA Oaks. Locking in Machine Gun Gracie to lead and win, then Twilight Tale Top 3 + Funchal Top 4.

RACE 9

PREMIUM GIRL had her first outing over 1800m in a 66+ behind the toughest galloper in WA (new age Marocchino) in Filthy Habits. She came under pressure a fair way out but stuck to her task. Big improver with that run under her belt and drops back in grade. BLAZING EMERALD is going from strength to strength this campaign and the ‘uglier’ they ride her the better she goes. Loves a grinding 16/1800. PHAROAH SHOW ran home well in the JC Roberts and is well placed against the older horses. STYLISH LORD broke through for a deserved win last start. The key was they finally rode him forward.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 10 – 1

Suggested Bet – PREMIUM GIRL WIN

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,4,5

2,7

2

1,3,4,5,10

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