Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MADHI GIRL got tongues wagging at trials on both occasions when skipping along to win a 400m jump out in under 24 seconds and then backing it up with an emphatic 5L victory at Lark Hill trials over 950m. As we saw with Golden Vale on debut when Simon Miller gets his hands on a nice 2 year old the money can come thick and fast and they usually live up to their trial performances. Slightly awkwardly drawn but looks hard to toss. SINFUL LIVING is similarly undefeated at trials and looks another with above average jump and run ability. Drawn barrier 1 is a massive advantage. BIG SHOTS has the race day experience and couldn’t have been more impressive behind sharp winner Onemoretwomany. BATTLE COMMANDER tries hard.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – MADHI GIRL WIN

RACE 2

KRYSANOVA can be hit and miss out of the machine, but when she jumps she can really go quick. With an Easterly breeze at their backs on Saturday and coming back to 1000m you’d imagine they try and use her best asset which is her high cruising speed. If she can cross these it’ll be interesting to see whether they’re quick enough to go with her in the middle stages. If she misses away it’s a tough assignment but not an impossible task. FINAL SIREN comes to town off the back of two effortless wins at Albany. In both events he has clocked excellent time and the two horses he’s beaten by panels have both saluted at their next starts franking the form. Big respect. PETULA will need some luck from potentially three back the fence. KING CARTEL trialled super for his return.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 4 – 1

Suggested Bet – KRYSANOVA WIN

RACE 3

TONI’S SPIRIT is a winner off a 7 day back-up and a winner off a 5 day back-up. She’s likely to settle rearwards in a race where they will walk through the early and middle stages but Michael Poy knows her well and he’ll put her into the race sooner rather than later. Thought her run had as much merit at Dun With The Blues last week and she’ll go round at least double the price. Hard to knock the way she’s going. DEMOLISH continues to tease. He’s now run second on 10 occasions and while this looks another perfect assignment for him until he sticks his neck out and wins one we’ve just got to push him to the side at the price. DUN WITH THE BLUES bolted in the Toodyay Cup off a 5 day back-up and is turning into a very nice staying proposition. BERNBRAE is a month between runs but has a senior going on.

Numbers: 4 – 2 – 8 – 7

Suggested Bet – TONI’S SPIRIT WIN

RACE 4 

BLACK FANTASY looks to have found his ideal assignment on his way towards a tilt at the Perth Cup. With Startrade in the race almost every horse is on the 54kg minimum and when you watch the natural lead up feature the AJ Scahill Cup he beat home every rival he meets again here. Should be better suited at his second staying race of the preparation and looks like William Pike will amble his way to the top and dictate terms to them. Hard to run down once he’s stolen a few cheap sections. QUEEN ALINA continues to run home well off the back of moderate tempos. She’s more than capable of matching it with the stablemate again. ANOTHER CHINO is better than what he showed last start. NEUFBOSC is going well.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – BLACK FANTASY WIN

RACE 5

CLIMB ON TOP simply never saw daylight last start. Prior to that he was a nice midweek winner over Captain Pluto and he now looks like one of Damien Oliver’s better rides for the Pinnacles so far. From the barrier he can park midfield with cover and make his run from the 600. Lightly raced, strong winning strike rate and comes from a yard who looks like they’ve got a big day ahead on paper. Ticks a few boxes. PLAYZ WITH FIRE is getting better at each run and looks to be building in confidence again after a lengthy injury enforced layoff. Should be right place, right time and looms as a big threat. HERE FOR CHEQUES backs up off 7 days and should be able to lead this field from barrier 1. Last time he lead and controlled a race he skipped away to win by over 3L. FOREVER DREAMING rarely runs a bad race.

Numbers: 3 – 7 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – CLIMB ON TOP EACHWAY

RACE 6

VAMPI AT PLAY and STORMY TAWNY will both be looking to burst through gaps in the home straight in a race with plenty of top end tempo (Rock This Town, Falcon Trader, Beau Zoom, Baalbek). Thinking that VAMPI AT PLAY can hold the spot behind the lead and if it is a horse like Rock This Town who holds up then there might even be an inside run to capitalise on up the home straight. Always promised to win better races than a 60+ Graduation and trialled well for her return. STORMY TAWNY has been a different horse since the blinkers went on. Her last two have been booming wins. Just needs to get a split to be a big winning chance. BAALBEK is flying but will need to burn from the outside gate. CELEBRITY PRINCE will need to find the right back to follow.

Numbers: 14 – 13 – 12 – 3

Suggested Bet – VAMPI AT PLAY EACHWAY

RACE 7

HANCHI looks really well placed by Sean & Jake Casey. First-up he arguably should have beaten Oscar’s Fortune in the Placid Ark Prelude when held up on straightening before coming out and around his heels late in the piece. Second-up he drew a horror alley in the Placid Ark and was doing his best work late after copping significant interference at the 550. Box seats on the back of a hot speed and if the gaps appear he’s more than capable of taking them. MOI CHOUX will go around 30-1. His effort two starts back behind Beads was a ripper and he meets both Metallon and Cut The Talk at least 4kg better at the weights. Blow out chance with shades on. PLAYTHATFUNKYMUSIC is in a rich vein of form and is appreciating being ridden for pure speed. METALLON gets the run he needs.

Numbers: 10 – 1 – 3 – 6

Suggested Bet – HANCHI WIN

RACE 8

A LOT OF GOOD MEN and ZIPAWAY have a 7kg pull on ZAAKI and realistically that still might not be enough to topple a bona fide star of the turf. Three year olds have a great record in the Kingston Town / Northerly Stakes winning six of the last 13 editions (Playing God, Ihtsahymn, Perfect Reflection, Arcadia Star, Kay Cee and Amelia’s Jewel) but many will argue that none of them have had to run down a horse like Zaaki and will further argue whether Zipaway and A Lot Of Good Men are quite at the same level. Considering recent history, the weight pull and the way he finished off in the WA Guineas going to have a throw at the stumps with A LOT OF GOOD MEN. ZAAKI is the winner of $10,823,680 and 4x Group Ones across three States. His first Mackinnon and his second Hollindale were even off a 28 day spacing. Runs to his peak and they’re running for second. ZIPAWAY is versatile but will need a big race ride from Stevie Parnham. ALSEPHINA has never missed the top 3 in her life.

Numbers: 16 – 1 – 15 – 11

Suggested Bet – A LOT OF GOOD MEN EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Zaaki (Top 2) + A Lot Of Good Men (Top 4)

Zaaki is the starting point for any Northerly Stakes assessment. He won almost $11 million in Prize Money and has won at Group One Level on four separate occasions! He’s a proven WFA star of Australian Racing and while he’s a 9 year old he showed in the Cox Plate that he’s not far from his best. Awfully hard to beat. A Lot Of Good Men has history on his side with 3 year olds winning 6 times in the last 15 years and with only 52kg on his back he could be WA’s best chance to topple the champ.

RACE 9

BILLY RAY will be 5x the price of STARRY HEIGHTS and that’s enough to get me. Two starts back he exploded through traffic to score an emphatic 1.8L win over the Ascot Mile carrying 57.5kg and then he went to the RJ Peters where he should have finished closer to Mojo Rhythm and Alsephina. He’s drawn right alongside STARRY HEIGHTS and Poy can follow Pike wherever he goes. STARRY HEIGHTS has won his last five in a row and is going from strength to strength. He toyed with them last start off the back of a pedestrian tempo (first 800m run 6.5L slower than average). He’s the real deal. BIG SCREEN and CHEVAL DE VAGA will both roll along out in front and ensure it’s a genuine tempo throughout.

Numbers: 3 – 6 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet – BILLY RAY EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 6 – 9)

1,3,5,7,8,12,13,14

1,3,6,10

1,15,16

3,6

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