Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

DIAMOND SCENE looks well placed to continue his way through the grades as one of the inform ratings stayers in the State. Since joining Donna Riordan he has won three on the bounce including the Apprentices Cup last start under Luke Campbell. Rises 5kg from that victory but reunites with William Pike and is drawn barrier 1 to lead or box seat. Provided he isn’t held up in traffic he should be going close again. PLAYHOUSE PATRON has been screaming out for further and Joey Azzopardi knows him well. Needs to wind up from a fair way out and should get that opportunity from the wider draw. MYSTERY MOMENT continues to race well. I LOVE YOUR SMILE returned with a big win over 1705.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 13 – 7

Suggested Bet – DIAMOND SCENE WIN

RACE 2 

YONGA LASS was probably the win of the day a fortnight ago when getting herself out of a really awkward position on straightening to score impressively. Once William Pike was able to pick a gap between runners she really exploded and looks to have gone to a new level since the blinkers were added. See no reason why she can’t sit back and zap them again. Really progressive. COUNT THE SESSIONS was the galloper she nabbed on the post last start and he gets a 1.5kg weight swing to try and turn the tables. WAR GEM still can’t buy a barrier or a map. Going lengths better than numerical form suggests. HOLY GHOST caught the eye late last week.

Numbers: 9 – 11 – 5 – 1

Suggested Bet – YONGA LASS WIN

RACE 3

HANG GLIDER is a big awkward moving animal but as we saw first-up he has a huge amount of raw ability. Would much rather him drawn outside than inside because as we saw last start he can jump a bit awkwardly and needs room to move in his races. Once he got clear he rounded them up with ease and in the end he only got 4 points for an emphatic 2L victory in this grade. There’s speed on speed here and with leaders stopping late he’ll be charging down the centre. BONNIE LAD probably should have finished a bit closer to him when they met last and with a 2.5kg weight swing and a nice run through along the fence he can close that gap. HOME JAMES was a much improved run last start. DOUBLE SPICE is fast and tough.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 11 – 1

Suggested Bet – HANG GLIDER WIN

RACE 4

DEMOLISH is not an easy horse to catch (2 from 22) but he has finished in the money at Black Type level on five separate occasions (Lex Piper – 1600, JC Roberts – 1800, Melvista – 2200, Belmont Guineas – 1600 & Aquanita – 2000). He has returned in really good form and expecting that the Yonga Lass reference will be popular (and successful) throughout the program. If he can land three deep cover he should get conditions to suit. DESENNAE and MOUNTAIN ASH met over 1600m on 11 November and there was a head between them. There’s now a 2kg weight swing in favour of MOUNTAIN ASH. DESENNAE seems to thrive on high speed, high pressure racing. HOLY ENCHANTMENT was back to his best fresh.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 8 – 5

Suggested Bet – DEMOLISH EACHWAY

RACE 5

CABLE BOY defied a big betting drift to score in the Albany heat first-up. He should only improve second-up into the preparation and if the conditions of the day are three deep  cover building into the race then he’ll be right place, right time. These Regional Championship Finals are typically fast run races and he’s proven at this level from off the back of the speed. Big tick that he’s also proven around Ascot. MUNGO JERRY will be understandably popular after romping home in the Kalgoorlie heat 28 days ago. The booking of William Pike is telling and he’ll roll forward into a position. ELITE FIGHTER found the line really well fresh and Brad Rawiller is a nice engagement. GOD’S MOMENT was four deep throughout last start in a forgive.

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 4 – 6

Suggested Bet – CABLE BOY EACHWAY

RACE 6

HE’SGOTWINGS is in really good form for Summer Dickson. Won in this grade over 1200m beating a subsequent winner in Saloon Bar three starts back and then last start in a 66+ rattled home over this distance behind Yonga Lass. Drops in grade, draws a better gate and should land in a nice spot midfield. Wide open race with plenty of chances but really happy to follow the Yonga Lass form through all day. SAN FABRIZIO comes through that same race and if Damien Oliver can get him across into a prominent position he’ll make his presence felt. Was held up at a crucial stage first-up. EEE PEE CEE has always flashed ability and trialled super. HERE FOR CHEQUES should get the right run following the speed.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 9 – 6

Suggested Bet – HE’SGOTWINGS EACHWAY

RACE 7

GENEROSITY didn’t seem to run out the mile in the Champion Fillies. Loomed large on straightening but then had little left in the tank over the final furlong. Coming back to 1400m suits and provided the Bureau are correct and there’s a decent SW blowing on Saturday they should be able to make ground from three deep cover. Has a big turn of foot when saved up. INVESTMENT STRATEGY backs up off 7 days, drops back to the 1400m and can lead them without pressure. Add in the bar plate coming off and he’s an ominous figure on paper. AUGMENT wasn’t disgraced behind two horses who go to the Winterbottom Stakes last start in the Placid Ark when truck loaded in betting. STORMCHASER has huge X-Factor. His win at Bunbury was sectionally unbelievable.

Numbers: 7 – 1 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – GENEROSITY EACHWAY

RACE 8

AMBER GLIDE has won her last four starts at $3.40, $9, $18 and $18. Remarkably as she shoots for her fifth straight win she’ll go around eachway yet again and the step back out to 1400m looks ideal for her. She beat a lot of these mares in the Jungle Mist over 1200m at SWP and only rises 1.5kg here and maps to get the three deep cover run that she desires. Why can’t she win again? DUCHESS OF GOSSIP got caught up in heap of traffic and then burst through gaps late on the ‘wrong’ part of the track. Showed she’s more than capable at this level. RUSTY DREAMS had to work forward last start and then mis-strode at the 500. Big forgive. JADAVI looks a big price for a mare who has run second in a Fillies & Mares 1400 with 58kg previously.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 4 – 2

Suggested Bet – AMBER GLIDE EACHWAY

RACE 9

OVERPASS has the best form in the race. Raced once at Ascot in a WFA 1200 when winning beating Amelia’s Jewel and Bella Nipotina (Quokka). Finished second to Giga Kick beating home Mazu in a WFA 1200 at Doomben (Doomben 10 000). Finished second to Private Eye beating home Buenos Noches and In Secret in a SWP 1100 at Randwick (The Shorts). Take away his 10th placing in the Everest, when still only beaten 4L, and he’s far and away the horse to beat. Only minor nag is the predicted wind conditions which are unlikely to favour those on speed. RIPCORD is the X-Factor runner as a 3 year old with 54.5kg and a barrier. His final furlong in the Placid Ark was visually outstanding. HOT ZED is a winner and knows how to find the line. Not convinced barrier 2 suits him but he tends to find a way. SNOWDOME is drawn 16 of 16 which makes things really difficult.

Numbers: 1 – 15 – 4 – 7

Suggested Bet – OVERPASS WIN

Same Race Multi – Overpass (Top 3) + Ripcord (Top 4)

Overpass is the starting point for any Winterbottom Stakes assessment. He won the inaugural Quokka before running second to Giga Kick and second to Private Eye. He was a ‘flop’ in the Everest but still was only beaten 4L in the best sprint in the Southern Hemisphere. If he brings his A-Game he’s extremely hard to beat. Ripcord is a bit of an unknown as a 3 year old taking on the older horses but he grew wings to win the Placid Ark Stakes.

RACE 10

SALOON BAR backs up off 7 days and drops down to the 54kg limit. He’s not been an easy horse to catch but following the three deep cover profile all day he appeals as one of the main chances in an open and even race. Kind of horse you need eachway to entertain. BITOFMERIT finished less than 2L off Hot Zed in the Group 3 Colonel Reeves last start. He comes back into a ratings race and he’s drawn to track up in behind a spirited speed battle (Can’t Be Done, Street Parade, Corn Cob, Sockoff, Written Matter) and with a clear run at them he should be finishing as well as anything in this field. UPPER LIMITS trialled nicely for his return and can sprint well fresh. CAN’T BE DONE should lob an identical spot to last start and both Peter & Luke Fernie are flying.

Numbers: 9 – 2 – 12 – 6

Suggested Bet – SALOON BAR EACHWAY

Quaddie (Race 7 – 10)

1,3,5,7

2,4,5,7

1,4,7,15,16

2,9,6,12

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