Races

Scott Embry’s Saturday Ascot Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

BRAVE SHOT has trialled well on both occasions. Matched motors with debut winner and 2 year old Magic Millions runner up Snow Prince in a 400m jump out at Belmont and then lengthened nicely when asked for an effort over the 1100m at Lark Hill. From the inside barrier he should enjoy a gun run and it looks a huge day on paper for W.Pike. ZIPAWAY looked good in his 850m trial sitting back and showing a sustained turn of foot to grab them in the shadows. With speed through Twist Of Gold, Platinum Shot and Leading Taddy he just needs to step cleanly and muster up along the inside to hold a commanding position. Think he’ll run well on debut. ALOTOFBANTER trialled well back in December. On debut without a trial. PLATINUM SHOT went around favourite in the Crystal Slipper on debut.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 2 – 6

Suggested Bet – BRAVE SHOT WIN

RACE 2 

PRAWNS ELEVEN resumed over 1200m without a trial at Pinjarra when sitting wide throughout and finishing a brave second behind talented Durrant 3 year old Supersession. This race has a tonne of speed with Bisector, Snippenova, Cut The Talk and Street Parade all likely to be jostling for early positions. Pike can park in behind them and when he presses the button Prawns Eleven has a huge turn of foot. Looks the ideal set up for him to pounce late. BISECTOR and CUT THE TALK met last start. There’s little between them, both speedy and most suited by the 1000. MALKAR PINDARI was scratched from a maiden to save for this. Bursting to win one.

Numbers: 3 – 4 – 2 – 5

Suggested Bet – PRAWNS ELEVEN WIN

RACE 3

SENORITA DOROTEA has put the writing on the wall with two luckless, yet equally impressive, runs from impossible positions. Has comfortably broken 34 seconds L600 at both of her runs this time in and now she has the services of the State’s best sit and sprint rider. From the inside gate she can hold a much closer position in running and she looks hard to hold out. SUPERSESSION has a big future. Could have gone to the 3 year old Plate or the 60+ 1000m and it looks like they’ve made the smart decision to again take on the older horses. Love the way he goes about it. MANTELLI could come out running to try and find a spot. Running honest races. THOMAS MAGNUM is usually a gun fresh. His trial was fair.

Numbers: 6 – 5 – 2 – 3

Suggested Bet – SENORITA DOROTEA WIN

RACE 4

TADWEER has turned a corner and is now rewarding his connections with juicy Saturday cheques. They’re likely to hard in this: Man Crush, Sockoff and Metallon all would like to find the fence and all are high speed cruising horses. Tadweer should be able to drop across in behind them into a stalking position and he’s showing a short, sharp turn of foot which makes him dangerous yet again. Safely held Burnya To Survive last week – that’s a quality effort. MAN CRUSH was allowed to find the front and dictate to a moderate 3 year old Magic Millions field. He’s classy but this does look a deeper race. SOCKOFF ran an identical (one-hundredth of a second slower) than him same track, same distance, same day in the Mares Pearl Classic. She’s absolutely flying and has plenty more races in store. METALLON is drawn really sticky but he’s a tough nut.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 6 – 3

Suggested Bet – TADWEER WIN

RACE 5

REBELZONE will carry 2.5kg less than Western Knight and will likely go round almost double his price. Think she’s a legitimate threat, especially if they elect to go back on Western Knight and ride him cold first-up. She’s run second to Rear Admiral, second to Karalee Rocks and second to Planet Cash, it’s all form that measures up in this grade. WESTERN KNIGHT did a lot wrong last preparation. His trials have been visually outstanding but he has been in the weakest heats of the day on both occasions. No doubt hard to beat but no sleep lost at even money. TIME SCALE is racing below her best. EX SPORT MAN is racing well but finding it hard to win.

Numbers: 6 – 7 – 1 – 8

Suggested Bet – REBELZONE WIN

RACE 6

NOBLE BORN should be able to get across in this from her wide draw. There is speed drawn to her inside but it’s mostly horses looking for some cover (Aiyza, Forever Dreaming and Wakan Tanka). Thought she did a good job first-up in a messy race when forced to cover a stack of additional ground. Should she glide across the face of the field and find the front she’s an undeniable eachway chance. FOREVER DREAMING was crunched in betting at her return off the back of a soft trial and duly saluted. Importantly the horse she ran down won soft at Pinjarra last week to frank the form. AIYZA continues to race in great order. She’s versatile and her last win was big. FLICKA’S CHANCE is always thereabouts in this grade.

Numbers: 2 – 5 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – NOBLE BORN EACHWAY

RACE 7

BORN TO TALK is rarely far from the winner. He won at 1200m three starts ago when $11 into $4.60, finished third at 1000 two starts ago and then went down fighting when swamped late by Cable Boy. He is the kind of horse who seems to go a length or two better when he gets smothered up behind a strong speed. Between Some Sort, Ain’t No Other Man, Dance Cockey and even Amber Highway he gets those exact conditions here. HERE’S DREAMING was massive fresh behind Sir Mambo (running past Born To Talk in the process) when finishing off against the pattern of the day and the day. Last start at Pinjarra covered a stack of additional ground in the wrong part of the track. TWICE A FORTNIGHT has real X-Factor. Love her turn of foot. Just needs luck from three back the fence. CABLE BOY was a big winner last start.

Numbers: 4 – 8 – 10 – 6

Suggested Bet – BORN TO TALK EACHWAY

Same Race Multi – Born To Talk (Top 4) + Here’s Dreaming (Top 4)

RACE 8

THOROGOOD will go round a juicy eachway price as all eyes are firmly planted on emerging mare Starchienne. Won in this grade in back to back outings at Belmont Park in January before finishing third to Planet Cash and Rebelzone in a 63+ and then third to Multinational and Weaponson in a 72+ (beating home Cheval De Vaga). Drops back into a 60+ Graduation and after the claim carries the same weight as Starchienne. Drawn to track up behind Mountain Ash and present at the right time. STARCHIENNE is a highly progressive mare. She’s been placed to perfection all preparation and they’re reaping the rewards. Hard to win 5 in a row but she looks like she’s still improving with racing. Ominous. MOUNTAIN ASH got conditions to suit last week and ran them into the ground. EDMOND is a little ripper.

Numbers: 2 – 7 – 5 – 3

Suggested Bet – THOROGOOD EACHWAY

RACE 9

BE OPTIMISTIC rounds out a huge book for William Pike: by my estimations he will be on 8 horses who will either jump favourite or second favourite – unreal. Once the Wizard gets his eye in he’s harder and harder to beat as he grows in confidence and if he’s ridden a handful by this stage of the day then Be Optimistic will be extremely popular. The mare is flying and Pikey looks the perfect pilot for a sit and sprint mare like her. WEAPONSON continues to race in near career best form for Danny Morton. Excellent use of the Luke Campbell claim. Can come out positive and then look for cover on Cheval De Vaga/Birdieagle. WESTRIVER MIRCALE has held up behind a wall of horses with 60.5kg last start. Forgive. BIRDIEAGLE drops a stack of weight on the back-up.

Numbers: 7 – 3 – 5 – 10

Suggested Bet – BE OPTIMISTIC WIN

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