Races

Scott Embry’s Friday Carnarvon Preview

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

RACE 1

MYSTICAL MAN ran a huge second to Verdigras at his Carnarvon debut when flooding home late. Second-up was again slow away and that cost him badly when he settled in a different postcode to the leaders and was left floundering. Caught the eye again late and now steps out to 1600. Tash Faithfull picks up the ride and all eyes on him when the gates open. If he steps cleanly he’s the one. POLO KING sat up on speed last start and was a revelation. Rosie Mahony doesn’t die wondering and that’s a great positive for a young apprentice on the dirt. POP THE MOET finished off strongly last start. If he reproduces that run he’s in the mix. NERO CHIN CHIN is Nero Chin Chin. People keep backing him and he keeps running midfield.

Numbers: 4 – 5 – 6 – 1

Suggested Bet – MYSTICAL MAN WIN

RACE 2

VERDIGRAS comes back to 1000m here after setting the track alight at 1200m at two starts in Carnarvon. Never looked in any danger at her debut in the region when leading throughout to win eased down by 3L and then last start couldn’t match it with Movenza late in the race. Overall time 3.5L faster than C1 average and so back to 1000 in theory a bonus. WORZEL is getting closer and closer and gets back into C1 grade after being more than competitive in 56+ company so far. Looks a match race. SEA LAKE has her first start on the dirt. Keep an eye on her for the future. BANGCRASH next best.

Numbers: 3 – 1 – 5 – 6

Suggested Bet – VERDIGRAS WIN


RACE 3

BEHROOZ is a 1000m Carnarvon specialist. Last start winner, kept fresh, proven off the spacing (winner off 38 days) and even drops 1.5kg in weight after the claim for Tyla Becker as he returns to 64+ grade. Has to come out running to get across but if he does he’ll be there a long way. CATIA has impressed at two runs in the region. Nothing wrong with the form, attacked the line strongly last start and has the toe to hold up along the fence. KRAMDEN is the X-Factor. Brings the grass metro sprinting form to the dirt and could destroy them. CALABRIA JOE likely to do it tough.

Numbers: 2 – 6 – 3 – 1

Suggested Bet – BEHROOZ WIN

RACE 4

MORDOR won well at his first start for Zach Tyler and then did it awfully tough in a C3 1200 when splitting Urban Girl and subsequent winner Counter Drive. Last time out lumped 61.5kg and was left out in the cheap seats unable to finish off as well. Up in grade means important weight relief. Worth following up. MOVENZA has been a surprise packet at her last two outings and is starting to emerge a s a progressive mare. Ray Malpass has a knack of finding these moderate types an improving them start to start once they find their feet on the dirt. Comes from a much weaker race but the time was excellent and she has no weight. JUPITERS SUN looked to have the race wrapped up last start until he ran around like a drunk under pressure. Hopefully goes straight for Hannah Fitzgerald. KNUCKLEDOWN caught the eye late last start.

Numbers: 5 – 7 – 8 – 10

Suggested Bet – MORDOR WIN

RACE 5

DANEFIN will be looking to hold up from the inside and looks just about ready to peak. Last year Ray Malpass’ yard got off to a flyer and then peaked mid season and tapered off late. Watching his horses this season they seem to be just hitting their straps and he might be timing his run this year? If Jett Stanley can hold up he’ll carry the weight and is well placed into this grade. JENABEL, NOBEL IMAGE, PORTRAIT LAO and BULL BAILEY are all strong last start winners and all have legitimate winning claims in a wide open race that should prove an excellent form reference for the coming meetings.

Numbers: 2 – 4 – 3 – 7

Suggested Bet – DANEFIN WIN

RACE 6

OSIPOVA has her first start on the dirt which is always a query and a risky betting proposition, however, she should be able to get across from the wide alley and if Kate Southam can keep her out of trouble and in open space she should go well. On speed mare, 58+ winner at Geraldton and has lead throughout to win two Geraldton mile races. Keep safe. COUNTER DRIVE has a big weight to carry but has hit form. Winner two starts ago when deep throughout under 60kg and last start was far from disgraced in a C3 mile where they walked the first 1000 and then were sprinting home hard (8L faster than average). Hard to fault. VENGEANCE OF WAR has his first start for the new yard and the stable is going well. SHREWD GAMBLE is building. Did the same last year and looks almost ready.

Numbers: 2 – 1 – 6 – 8

Suggested Bet – OSIPOVA WIN

Quaddie (Race 3 – 6)

2,3,6
1,4,5,6,7,8,10
2,3,4,5,7,8,10,11,12,13
1,2

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