Races

Runner by Runner: Winterbottom Stakes

Posted on | Posted by Scott Embry

1. Rothfire (58.5kg)

Trainer: Robert Heathcote
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Barrier: 3

Prolific juvenile winner who notched up a remarkable six wins as a 2 year old including the Group 1 JJ Atkins back in 2020. Returned a winner as a 3 year old in the Group 2 Run To The Rose at Rosehill over 1200m but then wasn’t able to win another race until the start of this preparation when winning the Group 2 Mcewen Stakes over 1000m at Moonee Valley, beating Zoustyle and Coolangatta. Attacks the Winterbottom fifth-up in the campaign and is a proven WFA commodity, with 5 of his last 9 starts being WFA Group 1 races. His racing pattern should suit Ascot and he’ll be very hard to run down from the perfect draw. Rob Heathcote looking for his third Winterbottom.

2. Vilana (58.5kg)

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Barrier: 12

Led throughout in April to win the South Pacific Classic at Listed Level over 1400m to stamp himself as an exciting Colt with a future and backed it up with a Group 3 1400m win at Eagle Farm in the Fred Best Classic in May. His win in The Hunter at Newcastle a fortnight ago convinced master trainer James Cummings of a trip across to Perth and with the booking of Jamie Kah he’ll be popular with punters. The Hunter profiles as a similar race to the Winterbottom in the sense that it was run hard and fast, with leader In The Congo never coming up for air. Big expectation on his shoulders.

3. Paulele (58.5kg)

Trainer: James Cummings
Jockey: Ben Melham
Barrier: 16

Has ticked the WFA box as a Group 2 Scillaci Stakes winner at Caulfield in October and has raced at Group 1 Level at 8 of his last 11 starts. Blinkers went on at his most recent start when finishing 11th, yet only 3L off Roch N Horse and Nature Strip in the Darley Champions Sprint over 1200m. Did race against Rothfire in the Manikato when beaten 3.75L behind him as a disappointing beaten favourite. You can make excuses for him since his Scillaci win, wet track Manikato, not a straight horse in the Darley Champions. Blinkers straight back off but likely to drag back to near last which hurts his chances.

4. Elite Street (58.5kg)

Trainer: Dan Morton
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Barrier: 7

Winner of the 2020 Winterbottom Stakes, 2021 Crawford, Prince of Wales and Colonel Reeves Stakes, 2022 Northam Stakes and Roma Cup who resumed without a trial in the Colonel Reeves and while running fourth was definitely below his brilliant best. Travelled well into the race in the three deep moving line but didn’t exactly unleash late and was left 3.8L adrift of This’ll Testya, 3L off Red Can Man and 1L off Indian Pacific. Banking on the genius of Danny Morton’s training operation to get him where he needs to be on Grand Final Day. Meets every runner from the Colonel Reeves better at the weights in WFA conditions and is a proven performer. Great draw, Champion horse. Trust.

5. The Astrologist (58.5kg)

Trainer: Leon & Troy Corstens
Jockey: William Pike
Barrier: 2

Notched up wins in the Listed All Victorian Sprint Series Final and Group 3 Aurie’s Star over 1200m at Flemington in June and July 2021 and since then has raced extremely consistently without winning another race. Comes through the Group 1 Darley Champions Sprint (WFA 1200) at Flemington and beat home Winterbottom rivals Rothfire and Paulele when backing up for the second consecutive time. For the SP profile punters out there in that race they jumped: Rothfire $41, Paulele $41, The Astrologist $61. William Pike and the barrier a pair of big bonus’.

6. Massimo (58.5kg)

Trainer: Chris & Michael Gangemi
Jockey: Brad Parnham
Barrier: 11

Last start WFA winner over 1400m in the Lee Steere Stakes beating Karli’s Karma and Massimo. Was a gritty, determined win from a horse who simply refuses to lay down. Chris & Michael Gangemi mapped out a programming pathway for him that bypassed the Railway Stakes and instead saw him head to the Winterbottom 3 weeks between runs. You would think they’ll be too sharp for him and he’ll be much better suited in the Gold Rush in a fortnights time.

7. Red Can Man (58.5kg)

Trainer: Steve Wolfe
Jockey: Shaun McGruddy
Barrier: 17

‘Only’ has a Listed Fairetha Stakes, Listed HG Bolton and Group 3 Sir John Monash Stakes on his CV but he has also finished second in five separate Group races and third in another three. Went around $18 in the 2021 Winterbottom Stakes and finished 6L off Graceful Girl, Stageman and Elite Street but you would have to say he’s probably going better this time in. Second to Elite Street in the Northam Stakes and Roma Cup in May before heading to Victoria for a three-start preparation in August/September. Finished fourth in the Group 2 Bobbie Lewis and beat home The Astrologist by just over a length. Gives 110% but just can’t quite break through to win a big one and the barrier draw is crippling.

8. Stageman (58.5kg)

Trainer: Adam Durrant
Jockey: Clint Johnston-Porter
Barrier: 5

Contesting his fourth consecutive Winterbottom Stakes having finished 9th behind Hey Doc in 2019, 7th behind Elite Street in 2020 and 2nd behind Graceful Girl in 2021. Amazing to think that he’s only won one Listed Race in his career (Black Heart Bart Stakes at Belmont in 2020) but the story of his life has been the four Listed placings and six Group placings. Not an easy horse to ride, not an easy horse to follow but at the same time you only need to watch back his luckless Winterbottom runs of recent years to sell yourself on the fact he’s not impossible at cricket score odds.

9. Indian Pacific (58.5kg)

Trainer: Neville Parnham
Jockey: Paul Harvey
Barrier: 15

Won the Listed Summer Scorcher on Perth Cup Day in 2021 before heading East as a m99 rater. Ran second in the Listed Bob Hoysted and almost pinched the Group 1 Newmarket down the straight at Flemington when beaten in the final strides by Zoutori. Hasn’t raced at that level ever since and while he has finished third behind Miss Conteki and This’ll Testya in the Prince of Wales and Colonel Reeves the 1200m seems to stretch him and he’s not the same horse when he can’t find the fence.

10. Beau Rossa (58.5kg)

Trainer: Will Clarken
Jockey: Todd Pannell
Barrier: 8

Burst onto the scene in Adelaide in 2021 when winning the Group 2 Tobin Bronze Stakes over 1200m which saw his handicap rating skyrocket from 75 to 90. Two months later won at Listed Level over 1050m at Morphetville again in the Lightning Stakes in July. Has been sparingly raced since that point only having a further eight starts. His clear career peak performance was finishing second to Behemoth at WFA over 1400m in the Group 1 Memsie at Caulfield in August 2021 which again sent his handicap rating flying to a high of m107. Trialled on Monday behind Kementari and heads into the Winterbottom second-up from a spell having finished right alongside The Astrologist first-up in the Rising Fast Stakes. Should find a perfect spot on speed.

11. Hot Zed (58.5kg)

Trainer: Lou Luciani
Jockey: Jason Whiting
Barrier: 6

Bypassed the Colonel Reeves Stakes to race in the 78+ 1200m same day and carried 61.5kg when recording a ninth career victory. Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and deserves a crack at the Winterbottom Stakes. Only the second time in his life that he has been to WFA and the other was in the Prince of Wales when beaten 4.75L behind Miss Conteki, This’ll Testya and Indian Pacific. One of the big winners from the barrier draw and wouldn’t rule out a top half finish but he does need to turn the tables on a number of locals let alone the invaders.

12. Kissonallforcheeks (56.5kg)

Trainer: Dan Morton
Jockey: Chris Parnham
Barrier: 14

One of the hardest horses in the field to line-up. Last season in WA she contested the Asian Beau (1400), RJ Peters (1500), Railway (1600) and Kingston Town (1800) whereas this season Danny Morton has targeted the Winterbottom/Gold Rush with her. Had five runs in Melbourne over spring, winning the Group 2 Mares 1400m Let’s Elope Stakes. Think at 1200m these will be too sharp for her but she’ll be a big improver into the Gold Rush. Fun Fact: only time she raced off 28 days she won the Shaftesbury Avenue at Flemington.

13. Miss Conteki (56.5kg)

Trainer: Simon Miller
Jockey: Patrick Carbery
Barrier: 13

Returned to racing in a blaze of glory when recording back to back wins in the Crawford (1000m SWP) and Prince of Wales (1000m WFA) before finishing fifth behind This’ll Testya, Red Can Man and Indian Pacific in the Colonel Reeves (1100m SWP). Meets This’ll Testya 1kg better and Red Can Man/Indian Pacific at the same weights. Has broken 33 seconds L600 at each of her three runs this preparation and was ripping ground off Elite Street in the run to the post. Only the fourth time she has stepped to 1200m in her life and last time she was at that trip she finished 1.5L off Hot Zed in the Scenic Blast. She’s racing at the peak of her powers but is heavily reliant on track/race pattern. Tracks the every move of Vilana?

14. This’ll Testya (56.5kg)

Trainer: Mitchell Pateman
Jockey: Lucy Warwick
Barrier: 9

Has finally turned into the high-pressure beast she always promised to be. Has had 9 starts for Mitchell Pateman and when you compare her last three runs to her first three runs for the new stable it’s hard not to be impressed. Beaten 2L in a Class 5 at Pinjarra in December 2021. November 2022 she’s a live chance in a WFA Group One. Truly remarkable. Enormous in the Crawford, huge in the Prince of Wales and even better again in the Colonel Reeves. If you’re thinking Miss Conteki/Elite Street/Red Can Man can win then so can she. Last two feature wins (Cyril Flower and Colonel Reeves) both run more than 4L faster than class average. Faster they go the better for her.

15. Sniparoochy (56.5kg)

Trainer: Stephen Miller
Jockey: Jason Brown
Barrier: 1

Is back to her very best but at the same time is thrown right into the deep end. She toyed with ratings opposition first-up at 1000m and then picked up her first Black Type success last weekend when leading and winning the Listed Mares Jungle Mist Classic. The Jungle Mist Classic field contained 12 opponents with an average handicap rating of m79. The Winterbottom Stakes field contains 15 opponents with an average handicap rating of m105. Looks a year too soon for her but we’ll get a great gauge on whether she’s anywhere near this level from the inside gate.

16. My Bella Mae (51.5kg)

Trainer: Dion Luciani
Jockey: Steven Parnham
Barrier: 10

Undefeated filly who brings an element of X-Factor, Intrigue and Excitement to the race. Come Winterbottom Stakes day on Saturday it will have only been 38 days since she broke her maiden. Incredible to think that at start number four she’s lining up in a Group One. Stevie Parnham puts his hand up to do the hard work and get down to the weight and while only beating horses of her own Age Group to date she has broken 1:10 in both of her 1200m wins. Has tactical speed, has change-up speed and has undeniable raw ability. Big unknown.

SELECTION: VILANA

Vilana will need the race to unfold in his favour, the speed horses to be coming back to them half way up the straight, but if they do, then he profiles very similarly to a 2020 Elite Street type. Likely to park just worse than midfield, staying out of traffic and trouble in the capacity line-up and capable of working through his gears. Lightly raced, hugely progressive and touted by Godolphin as potentially a future stallion should he continue on his current upward spiral. You need eachway about sprinters at Ascot who settle second half, you get it with Vilana.

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