Races

Chris Nelson’s Championships Best Bets

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

Chris Nelson’s Preview

RACE 1 No.  1 PRIZED ICON

Terrific effort in the Black Opal two starts back when racing 3 deep and fighting on strongly to the line. Followed that up with a close up performance in the Baillieu at Rosehill, 1600m looks ideal.

(5) OBSCURA clearly clocked the best closing sectionals in the same race and will lap up the mile, big threat.

(2) REINFORCED shade disappointing last time however in the right yard and can improve sharply.

(4) CROWN HIM stablemate to the top selection who is also in the mix.

Suggested Bet – Backing top 2 selections for the win.

RACE 2 No.  3 KIMBERLEY STAR

Both runs back from a break have produced fast finishing efforts here in the Fireball and at Gosford in the Guineas. Step up to 1400m looks ideal at this stage and Blake Shinn to ride is a good lead.

(5) SUSPENSE faces his acid test here however can’t knock the unbeaten 4 from 4 record.

(10) CHANDANA is the wildcard, drawn poorly however very impressive winning a recent Rosehill trial, definite market watch.

(1) SANTA ANA LANE forgiving latest off a wide draw, previous Victorian form excellent.

Suggested Bet – Kimberley Star each-way.

RACE 3 No.  7 DANISH TWIST

One of 9 acceptors in the race for trainer Kris Lees! Flashed home from back in the field to place at Muswellbrook last start, that followed a game effort from a wide gate at Kembla. Drawn to gain a nice run here & the 1400m suits.

(1) SUPREME EFFORT racing in peak form and handles the sting out of the ground, definite threat.

(3) HIS MAJESTY stablemate to the above runner & he meets him better at the weights for the last start narrow defeat. Wide gate some concern though.

(2) BETTER NOT BLUE placed in the Wyong heat, another who will have to overcome a wide draw though

Suggested Bet – Danish Twist each-way/wide exotics.

RACE 4 No.  11 GRETNA

Looking for some value with this lightly raced Chris Waller trained filly. Hit the line strongly to score at Moonee Valley before clear far too late at Caulfield flashing home into 3rd placing. Will be very strong to the line here.

(5) SOVIET SECRET nice type of filly yet to miss a place at 3 starts, likely to be suited over further however can certainly figure in the finish.

(7) NAJMAAT has done nothing wrong & will be further improved.

(6) EMPHATICALLY solid form however must overcome the extreme outside draw.

Suggested Bet – Gretna each-way.

RACE 5 No.  1 JAPONISME

Looks perfectly placed here back to his own age under the set weights conditions. His last 4 starts have all been in Group 1 company winning the Coolmore at Flemington in the spring whilst placing in the Lightning & William Reid this time in. Clearly the one to beat.

(12) PETITE FILOUS is a class act having won 5 of her 6 starts, cruised home first up & further improved.

(11) GHISONI has been freshened up after a tough run in the Coolmore, likely to push on here from the wide gate.

(14) EGYPTIAN SYMBOL consistent & always an each-way chance, just finds it hard to win.

Suggested Bet – Win bet Japonisme.

RACE 6 No.  3 HONESTA

Happy to take the each-way about this filly who beat all bar Jameka in the Oaks at Flemington back in the spring. She’s had the 3 runs this time in & is looking for the longer trip. Right at her peak for this & any cut in the ground won’t worry her.

(1) JAMEKA the obvious threat, backs up off a good effort against the boys last week in the Derby.

(13) HAPPY HANNAH lightly raced & right on track clocking the slickest last 600m in the Vinery last start. Right in the mix.

(7) SOFIA ROSA Kiwi filly who lost the Oaks at home on protest last start, won previous three starts on the trot.

Suggested Bet – Boxing up top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 7 No.  4 LIBRAN

Don’t see any reason to jump ship here, couldn’t have had a better preparation leading into the two miles here & will gain plenty of weight relief after a grinding win with the 58kg last week in the Chairmans dropping back to the 53kg for this Group 1.

(1) WHO SHOT THEBARMAN proven over the trip having placed in this Cup as well as the big one at Flemington run in the springtime. Good formlines leading in.

(3) GRAND MARSHAL defending champion who hit the line solidly in the BMW.

(5) AUVRAY little disappointing last week however can place here over the longer trip.

Suggested Bet – Backing top 3 selections in exotics.

RACE 8 No.  3 AZKADELLIA

Terrific effort here last Saturday beating all bar the champ Winx & Happy Clapper. She charged home from the back of the field which was a similar effort to the prior run in the Coolmore behind Peeping. Gets her chance to bring up a Group 1 success here.

(5) NOBLE PROTECTOR has a stack of ability & 3 of 5 wins over this mile trip, looks good value.

(4) MISS ROSE DE LAGO likely race leader who is flying of late, McDonald sticks.

(2) POLITENESS had excuses with a poor recovery rate latest, prior form top notch.

Suggested Bet – Win bet Azkadellia

RACE 9 No.  1 CRITERION

Last year’s winner who is right on track to successfully defend here. Just peaked on his finish late in the Ranvet however with that run under the belt he’ll be primed and this is his Grand Final.

(9) HAPPY CLAPPER the big query… Will he run 2000m out strongly under these conditions? If the answer’s yes then he rates very highly off the 2nd to Winx here last Saturday.

(10) HAURAKI was very good in the Ranvet, will be closing in at the right time here.

(2) PREFERMENT Australian Cup & BMW winner last 2 starts, need I say more!

Suggested Bet – Boxing up the top 4 selections in exotics.

RACE 10 No.  7 I’VE GOT THE LOOKS

Team Snowden trained mare who looks a good value chance in this. She’s been freshened up which suits & did win a recent trial which is always a good pointer from this yard.

(4) SULTRY FEELING won her last couple in good style & did sit wide latest, must include.

(2) GRIANTE Galaxy Winner last time out after having no luck in the Oakleigh Plate.

(6) CRADLE ME has a booming finish & is always capable of running right over the leaders late.

Suggested Bet – I’ve Got The Looks each-way.

BEST BET

Race 5 – 1 Japonisme

BEST EACH WAY

Race 4 – 11 Gretna

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