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Digby’s AFL Round 9 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Hawthorn v Sydney

Friday, MCG 5.50pm

A genuine blockbuster with undeniable top-four implications was put into perspective earlier this week when it was revealed that Jarryd Roughead was facing the fight of his life. Just how Hawthorn’s players will respond to an emotional week is impossible to predict. What we do know is that unless they bring their best for 120 minutes, they will find themselves on the wrong end of the ledger at the final siren and in a logjam of sides jostling for a double chance later in the season.

Sydney should have taken care of Richmond last weekend, but a lack of composure late proved costly. The return of Josh Kennedy from a slight hamstring niggle is a massive boost, not to mention the continued good form of former dual Hawks premiership forward Lance Franklin. The imposing spearhead is kicking goals at will, having a hand in several majors of teammates and is drawing the football like few can. The challenge for Sydney is to make sure they aren’t too predictable going forward otherwise Josh Gibson will prove a nuisance from the opening bounce.

Hawthorn’s midfield has relied heavily on Sam Mitchell in 2016 to carry the load and he has done so admirably. But the support cast must be long and sustained here to thwart the Swans’ on-ballers Kennedy, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, Kieren Jack and Tom Mitchell. If they are winning the clearances, they have the firepower forward of centre to hurt Hawthorn. Likewise, the underrated Sydney defence will be kept busy despite Roughead’s absence courtesy of Luke Breust, Jack Gunston, Paul Puopolo, Cyril Rioli and James Sicily. And it is Hawthorn’s ability to score quickly and heavily, coupled with this game being at their preferred venue, that gives them the edge.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 11 points

1st goal scorer: Lance Franklin

Collingwood v Geelong

Saturday, MCG 11.45am

Collingwood had every right to feel good about themselves in the wake of last Saturday night’s mauling of Brisbane at the Gabba. Under intense pressure to perform following a disappointing display against Carlton, the Magpies responded in the manner expected. One hopes they enjoyed the good vibes because they are facing a serious jolt of reality against a Geelong side that has won six in a line and stormed to outright favouritism for this year’s premiership.

The Cats are the complete article. Superbly led in attack by Tom Hawkins, marshalled through the midfield by captain Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield and Cam Guthrie, and sturdy in the back half thanks in no small part to Corey Enright, Harry Taylor and Lachie Henderson, it is little wonder why they sit in second position with a commanding percentage. The Magpies blitzed Brisbane early due to total midfield dominance and they must stand their ground in that area against the Cats given how porous their defence has been.

Only Greater Western Sydney have scored more than Geelong this season, with Hawkins and Shane Kersten proving the pillars and Steven Motlop in arguably the best form of his career. The Cats could have taken care of Adelaide at Adelaide Oval last Friday night by half-time had they taken their opportunities, although Collingwood were also wasteful opposed to the Lions. The Magpies won’t be afforded as many chances in this match, making the input of tall duo Mason Cox and Jesse White, fresh off combining for seven goals against the Lions, all the more important.

VERDICT: Geelong by 39 points.

1st goal scorer: Alex Fasolo

Gold Coast v Adelaide

Saturday, Metricon Stadium 12.10pm

Every side is inconvenienced by injuries at stages throughout a season. Cruelled by the loss of several key players in 2015, Gold Coast find themselves facing a similar scenario this season. The absence of Gary Ablett with concussion is another serious blow, although the week off will hopefully allow the out-of-sorts Suns captain to rest a shoulder injury that has troubled him for some time. That Ablett hasn’t been able to perform anywhere near his optimum while wounded has only exacerbated Gold Coast’s troubles.

Most alarmingly, their insipid final three quarters against Greater Western Sydney last weekend weren’t a shock. The Suns down tools better than anyone and Adelaide will know exactly what is required to extract not only four points but valuable percentage. The Crows have endured a testing first two months of the season and will know they need to take this opportunity with both hands. If Don Pyke’s midfielders make their presence felt, the Crows’ forward line of Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins, Tom Lynch, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron could have more fun than school kids at a Gold Coast theme park.

Out-of-contract Suns midfielder Dion Prestia spoke on Tuesday about the hope that one upset victory could reinvigorate his teammates. Given how badly Gold Coast are travelling, any win they have from here on iin will be an upset.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 76 points.

1st goal scorer: Josh Jenkins

Port Adelaide v West Coast

Saturday, Adelaide Oval 2.35pm

Port Adelaide are understandably happy to welcome back gun midfielder Robbie Gray  from injury. While his inclusions is significant, it doesn’t exactly fill the area of the ground where Port need help the most — the ruck. No Matthew Lobbe (knee) and no Paddy Ryder (drug suspension) leaves a gaping hole against the Eagles’ Nic Naitanui, who has the capacity to tear this game apart in the centre of Adelaide Oval.

West Coast’s midfield has proven extremely adept at Domain Stadium, but hasn’t been able to match the on-ball divisions of Hawthorn, Sydney or Geelong interstate. If the likes of Matt Priddis, Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff, Jack Redden, Mark Hutchings, Chris Masten and Elliot Yeo are afforded the silver service most expect from Naitanui and Scott Lycett, there is no excuse for them not to win the all-important centre clearances and wreak havoc. If that occurs, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras and Jack Darling will be extremely difficult to counter.

Port showed against Richmond and Brisbane in successive wins that they can defend when required. That attitude came about after some excellent leadership from Travis Boak, Hamish Hartlett, Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert and Charlie Dixon. Boak was poor in the loss to Carlton last Sunday and the Power desperately need their captain showing the way. He will be delighted by Gray’s return, but Port’s talent stocks demand they receive an even contribution. If West Coast withstand the inevitable Power surge early, they should be too strong.

VERDICT: West Coast by 25 points.

1st goal scorer: Mark LeCras

North Melbourne v Carlton

Saturday, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

It is hard not to get caught up by the feel-good story that is Carlton’s resurgence under bubbly rookie coach Brendon Bolton. The Blues’ defensive principles are sound, the forward line is starting to find its feet, and the guidance and influence wielded by the team’s on-field leaders impossible to ignore. That has led to a four-game winning streak and increasing self-belief. However, Carlton are going to need all of that and more if they are to become the first side to beat North Melbourne this season.

The Kangaroos haven’t set the world on fire in recent weeks, as evidenced by their grinding win over Essendon last weekend. In saying that, the game had been put to bed in the first half and Brad Scott’s men opted not to get out of second gear for the final 60 minutes. What has been impressive however in recent times for the Kangaroos has been their willingness — and ability — to defend grandly. North have conceded just 36 goals in the past four weeks and the return of veteran Michael Firrito from a week’s rest further strengthens their back six.

The loss of Matthew Kreuzer to a knee injury is a massive blow for the Blues given the presence of reigning All-Australian ruckman Todd Goldstein and his experienced and flexible running division. And if the Kangaroos are able to establish themselves at the contests against the Patrick Cripps-led Carlton, then their tall timber of Jarrad Waite, Drew Petrie and Ben Brown loom as a major obstacle. At the other end of the ground, Levi Casboult’s broken leg heaps more pressure on Liam Jones, a scenario he hasn’t always enjoyed.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 34 points.

1st goal scorer: Jarrad Waite

Fremantle v Richmond

Saturday, Domain Stadium 5.40pm

The hits keep on coming for Fremantle. Sadly for Ross Lyon and his underachieving group of players, there is nothing great about them. Quality midfielder Stephen Hill nicked an adductor in the loss to Hawthorn last Saturday and his absence places further pressure on a following division already missing Nat Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands and Harley Bennell. And perhaps summing up Fremantle’s season is the fact that their misfortune could well be exposed by the Tigers.

Richmond captain Trent Cotchin returns from a two-week absence with a fractured cheekbone and fills out a following division that has genuine class in Brett Deledio, Dustin Martin, Anthony Miles and Brandon Ellis. Deledio has often been referred to as the Tigers’ most important player, a title he enhanced with a superb performance in the stirring win over Sydney last Saturday night. Ben Grifffiths was terrific in kicking five goals, but the former No.1 draft pick’s 34 disposals, the bulk of which were precise, illustrated his worth yet again.

Fremantle will be boosted by the return of a freshened Matthew Pavlich, but the veteran will find it hard to kick goals against Alex Rance and the forecast inclement conditions. Chris Mayne is running into form, which some would argue is well overdue, but Hayden Ballantyne remains a shadow of his former self. Michael Walters is the Dockers’ most reliable and dangerous forward, although he is working up the ground to stiffen a midfield unit that lacks polish. There are still a lot of questions about the legitimacy of both sides — and for good reason — but home-ground advantage could prove vital for Fremantle.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 10 points.

1st goal scorer: Jack Riewoldt

Melbourne v Brisbane

Sunday, MCG 11.10am

Brisbane couldn’t have performed any worse against Collingwood had they tried. And for a side boasting just one win for the season, that is saying something. The Lions were horrid from the outset and then deteriorated. It was the type of display that leads to coaches being sacked. Justin Leppitsch will be seeking an immediate response and while he knows Brisbane don’t necessarily need to win this game, they cannot afford to be embarrassed again.

Melbourne have experienced their share of turmoil and spankings over the years, but have turned the corner in coach Paul Roos’ third year at the helm. Though they were unable to cope with the pressure and class of the Western Bulldogs last Sunday, the Demons hung in and forced the Bulldogs to pull out plenty. Melbourne are an accomplished side at centre clearances and the issues Brisbane have in that area of the ground were laid bare by the Magpies. Expect Jack Viney, Bernie Vince, Nathan Jones and co. to make their presence felt in tight early to set the tone.

Melbourne big man Max Gawn had a rare quiet game against the Bulldogs and would dearly love to rebound in style. If he does, the Demons could well and truly fill their boots up against an opponent which allowed 43 scoring shots a week earlier.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 58 points.

1st goal scorer: Jesse Hogan

GWS v Western Bulldogs

Sunday, Spotless Stadium 1.20pm

One of the big questions leading into 2016 was whether the Western Bulldogs could build on their deeds from Luke Beveridge’s first season in charge? They have certainly done that and deserve to be talked about as genuine premiership contenders. But they are now getting seriously low on quality personnel. A tipping point? Quite possibly. Already without Robert Murphy (knee), Jason Johannisen (hamstring), Matt Suckling (ankle) and Marcus Adams (finger), the Bulldogs lost veteran Matthew Boyd (suspension) during the week, leaving their back line in tatters.

And when you are fronting up against the heaviest-scoring side in the competition strengthened further by the availability of Toby Greene, who has become an unlikely goal kicker this season, there is genuine cause for concern. Beveridge will need a cohesive and committed approach from his troops to dull the Giants’ attacking arsenal, but even that may not be enough against Jeremy Cameron, Rory Lobb, Jonathon Patton and Steve Johnson.

He also needs to structure up a forward line that has a reliable big target. It has been no coincidence that the Bulldogs have been better in the past fortnight with Jack Redpath inside attacking 50m. His suspension for kneeing is a blow and could impact on Jake Stringer. Both forward lines will look to their midfield for slick supply and the battle between the respective units, which are uncompromising and seriously gifted, makes for compulsive viewing. The Giants have won five in a row and looked awesome in storming up the ladder. There is no reason to suggest the streak will end here.

VERDICT: GWS by 19 points.

1st goal scorer: Tory Dickson

St Kilda v Essendon

Sunday, Etihad Stadium 2.40pm

St Kilda have given their supporters a fair bit to be excited about for the bulk of 2016, but they eroded a considerable amount of credits with their performance against West Coast last Sunday. It was a terrible effort and one which quite rightly left coach Alan Richardson bewildered. Conversely, Essendon fans afforded their side a standing ovation after a plucky second half saw them lose narrowly to ladder leaders North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium.

We all know about the Bombers’ personnel deficiencies, but they have, for the most part, cracked in and extended their eight opponents this season. David Zaharakis was nullified by Ben Jacobs last weekend and the Bombers missed his drive. If he is able to return to the form he displayed in previous weeks, the Bombers will clearly be more potent. Essendon are struggling to kick scores and though the Saints managed just three goals against West Coast, they will be much better suited inside Etihad Stadium.

Nick Riewoldt, Josh Bruce and Tim Membrey have worked well together this season and are likely to ask much of Essendon’s defence. As for the Saints’ back line, the return of Sam Fisher after he missed the trip west with soreness is significant. There are matches sides just have to win and this is one of those as far as St Kilda are concerned.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 40 points.

1st goal scorer: Luke Dunstan

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