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Digby’s AFL Round 19 Preview

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 28 July

Hawthorn v Sydney, MCG 5.50pm

The Sydney juggernaut continues to roll along at breakneck pace as a 0-6 start morphs into a genuine premiership assault. Had the Swans not been so impressive in rescuing a season that was on life support, there is every chance much more would have been made of Hawthorn’s revival after their own tardy beginning to the 2017 campaign.

The Hawks demolished Fremantle by 52 points in Perth last Saturday night, an impressive performance that was befitting of Alastair Clarkson’s 300th game at the helm. And the four-time premiership mentor would love nothing more than to turn over the Swans yet again. It pays to remember that the only game Sydney have lost in their past 11 matches was in round 10 to Hawthorn … at the SCG.

Hawthorn’s ability to chip the ball around and deny the Swans possession was vital in the six-point win, but it would be a massive shock if that was to occur again. Sydney have monstered their opposition at the stoppages and been ridiculously difficult to score against, with Lance Franklin receiving unlikely, yet timely, support against St Kilda last weekend from Callum Sinclair, who booted five goals. If Sydney arrive with intent, they will leave with the four points.

VERDICT: Sydney by 15 points

Saturday, 29 July

North Melbourne v Melbourne, Blundstone Arena 11.45am

On face value, this match represents a golden opportunity for Melbourne to consolidate their spot inside the top eight, perhaps even enhance their prospects of sneaking into the top four with a month remaining in the home-and-away season.

But there are a couple of important factors at play that will ensure Demons coach Simon Goodwin and his players don’t take North Melbourne lightly. The Kangaroos are a tough nut to crack at their Hobart fortress — just ask Adelaide, who were ambushed down there earlier in the season. And then there is the small matter of North having won their past 16 matches against Melbourne, including the corresponding fixture last year.

That said, the Demons were outstanding against Port Adelaide last Saturday, with the return of co-captain Jack Viney and Dom Tyson crucial to a banged-up midfield needing an injection of talent and spirit, while Max Gawn dominated Paddy Ryder.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 20 points

GWS v Fremantle, Spotless Stadium 12.10pm

Greater Western Sydney aren’t travelling anywhere near the level coach Leon Cameron would like, nor what the wider football community expected, so deep into the season. That is even taking into account their injuries. Not that it will matter this weekend. Fremantle have impotent in front of goal the past fortnight, their inability to maximise their ball-winning ability simply mind-boggling.

The Dockers have booted just 12 goals in losing to West Coast and Hawthorn and unless coach Ross Lyon can discover the key to a functioning forward line — and history says that has proved difficult for him — the Giants will be able to get a timely confidence boost. From here on in, GWS need to build momentum and continuity, and the expected return of Stephen Coniglio after one NEAFL hit-out is a step in the right direction.

VERDICT: GWS by 32 points

Port Adelaide v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval 2.35pm

St Kilda remain in finals contention. Just. However, by the time the final siren sounds in this match, their plight could be extremely bleak. The Saints venture to a ground where they have a terrible record without veterans Leigh Montagna (hamstring) and Nick Riewoldt (managed), and bereft of confidence after back-to-back heavy losses to Essendon and Sydney.

Port Adelaide will also be missing a key component in Chad Wingard, but are sure to relish the surrounds of home and have proven a very difficult nut to crack on the rebound this season. The Power were outclassed by Melbourne for the first half last Saturday, but hung around and in the end, threatened to pinch the points.

If Ken Hinkley’s charges can impose themselves in and around the contest at the feet of Paddy Ryder, who wasn’t at his best opposed to Max Gawn, there is no reason why the Power forwards won’t be presented with ample opportunities to kick a score against a Saints defence that has leaked goals of late.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 28 points

Gold Coast v Richmond, Metricon Stadium 5.25pm

Trust and Richmond haven’t gone all that well together in recent seasons. But on what we have witnessed this year, the Tigers are the genuine article. They are producing a brand of football that serves them well week after week — the mauling by the Crows in Adelaide and the shock loss to St Kilda earlier this month aside. The latest proof of that came against Greater Western Sydney at the MCG last Sunday.

Challenged early by the Giants, the Tigers ground their way back into the match, with premier performers Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin and Alex Rance performing strongly, as did their extensive support cast headed by Nick Vlastuin and Brandon Ellis. Put simply, Richmond have few passengers. Conversely, Gold Coast have plenty. Gary Ablett should return, but even his presence might not be enough to avoid another nail being driven into the coffin of coach Rodney Eade.

VERDICT: Richmond by 30 points

Carlton v Geelong, Etihad Stadium 5.25pm

Geelong enter round 19 in second position after Greater Western Sydney’s loss to Richmond last weekend. But having failed to extend their good recent record against Adelaide in round 18, the Cats can be assured they won’t remain in their current position should they slip up against a physically and mentally fatigued Carlton.

The Cats look to have too many big guns through the midfield, with Patrick Dangerfield (foot) and Scott Selwood sure to be better off than they were opposed to the Crows, while captain Joel Selwood continues to play at a high standard each and every week. The loss of Mark Blicavs (ankle) robs Geelong of some flexibility, but the Blues are coming off a loss to Brisbane at the Gabba, a performance that needs to be turned around dramatically if they are to topple Geelong. Finding some goals is a must for coach Brendon Bolton.

VERDICT: Geelong by 41 points

Sunday, 30 July

Western Bulldogs v Essendon, Etihad Stadium 11.10am

After a reasonably lacklustre batch of matches on Saturday, this contest shapes as a cracker. Can Essendon continue their late-season resurgence and tighten their grip on a spot inside the top eight? If so they will almost certainly kill of the Western Bulldogs’ premiership defence.

The Bulldogs weren’t brilliant against Gold Coast in Cairns, but they did finish strongly. Unfortunately, the win came at a cost with Dale Morris (broken arm) and key forward Jack Redpath (suspension) unavailable for this match. No Redpath and hamstrung All-Australian forward Jake Stringer leaves the Bulldogs, who have struggled to score freely in 2017, under great pressure. Essendon have shown a propensity to hit the scoreboard of late, thanks chiefly to their rapid-fire ball movement and leg speed.

The Bulldogs of last year would have been able to slow down the Bombers’ chain of possession, but Luke Beveridge’s side hasn’t displayed anywhere near the same defensive intent this season, even with captain Bob Murphy returning to marshal the back line. If Essendon can get on the outside, the Bulldogs will be hard pressed to keep in touch given their lack of attacking firepower.

VERDICT: Essendon by 26 points

Collingwood v Adelaide, MCG 1.20pm

There was so much to like about the way Collingwood climbed from the canvas against West Coast. Wounded and on the mat, they found a way to reel in the Eagles and then deliver a knockout blow. But if Nathan Buckley is to enjoy a third successive victory, which in turn could aid his chances of holding on to his job, the Magpies are going to have to go to another level again.

Adelaide produced arguably their best effort of the season last weekend opposed to Geelong. Rory Sloane ignited the midfield which received great service from Matt and Brad Crouch, and Richard Douglas, and the ball movement was slick from the outset. Brad Crouch (fractured cheekbone) is in doubt and Sloane can expect to be tagged by Levi Greenwood. But the attitude of the Crows against the Cats was a no-nonsense one and is now the baseline from here on in.

Collingwood can be more hit than miss in front of goals, an issue that doesn’t normally plague Adelaide. Goalsneak Eddie Betts will be absent after having his appendix removed, but in Charlie Cameron, Taylor Walker, Josh Jenkins and Mitch McGovern, not to mention Douglas fresh off a four-goal haul, the Crows have the arsenal to overwhelm the hosts.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 31 points

West Coast v Brisbane, Domain Stadium 2.40pm

There are losses that leave a coach and his playing group disappointed and there are others that leave them absolutely gutted and fans enraged. West Coast’s inability to hold their ground against Collingwood last Sunday prompted fierce criticism and could well be the result that sees them miss the finals.

If we have learnt anything about West Coast this year, it is they have the ability to respond at home. And even though Brisbane are improving — as evidenced by their excellent win against Carlton last weekend — they will be without Dayne Zorko, their one genuine All-Australian hope in 2017, through suspension.

Zorko’s absence leaves the Lions undermanned in the midfield and that is where the Eagles will look to make their presence felt in this match after the feeble final 25 minutes against Collingwood. The return of Sam Mitchell is a positive, although the most interest in this game surrounds what Simpson and his match committee do at selection.

VERDICT: West Coast by 45 points

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