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Digby’s AFL Preview – Round 3

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

Friday, 7 April

Sydney v Collingwood, SCG, 5.50pm

The fact Sydney host Collingwood on the Friday night stage at 0-2 is a surprise. Indeed, had the Swans’ effort against the Western Bulldogs last week been produced in their opening home match of the season opposed to Port Adelaide, they would be 1-1.

For the third successive week, last year’s grand finalists will be well down on manpower, but the presence of Lance Franklin, in his 250th game, certainly helps offset deficiencies in the personnel stakes. Franklin has produced some outstanding performances at the SCG and much of Collingwood’s planning will have involved how best to curb him.

The Magpies have butchered the ball, both in general play and in front of goal, in their two losses to the Bulldogs and Richmond and can ill afford that trend to continue. Showing the necessary composure in the tight confines of the SCG with so much at stake is not easy. It is hard to believe Sydney could slide to 0-3.

VERDICT: Sydney by 21 points.

Saturday, 8 April

North Melbourne v GWS, Blundstone Arena, 11.45am

In years gone by, North Melbourne had their way with Greater Western Sydney. The Giants broke their duck against the Kangaroos in the most recent meeting between the sides late last year and it would take a brave person — perhaps a foolish one — to suggest they won’t chalk up win No.2 in this encounter.

Stung by their poor round-one performance, the Giants obliterated Gold Coast at Spotless Stadium last weekend. The midfield, led by Josh Kelly and Dylan Shiel, gorged itself against modest opposition and forwards Jeremy Cameron, Toby Greene and Steve Johnson filled their boots.

The Kangaroos haven’t been horrible in their 0-2 start, but remain winless nonetheless. The loss of suspended key defender Scott Thompson takes on even greater significance given the Giants are likely to bolster their forward line with Jonathon Patton. In fine conditions, expect GWS to do a number on North.

VERDICT: GWS by 50 points.

Richmond v West Coast, MCG, 12.10pm

Considerable conjecture surrounded the fitness of Dustin Martin (fractured cheekbone) in the build-up to this game and understandably so. Martin appears set to take the field and if he performs near his optimum, Richmond are a big chance, even taking into account the absence of Ben Griffiths (concussion) and Shane Edwards (hip).

But it would be a major shock if the Eagles were only consumed by Martin. Tigers captain Trent Cotchin is in excellent nick also and is likely to draw a tag, with either Mark Hutchings or Jack Redden candidates for the negating role.

Both sides have shown a penchant for scoring this season, but one thing the Eagles haven’t done is start well. They have been able to steamroll North Melbourne and St Kilda after finding their feet, but allowing Richmond to get rolling at the MCG is fraught with danger. If West Coast break even through the midfield, they have the forward firepower to overwhelm a Richmond defence which has been more shaky than sturdy.

VERDICT: West Coast by 19 points.

Geelong v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 2.35pm

Had Jordan Lewis and Jesse Hogan not lost their cool against Carlton last Sunday, Melbourne supporters could have gone into this game believing their side could take down Geelong. In the wake of the twin suspensions however, they can now only hope.

That is not to say the Demons are impossible. They have a harder edge than Geelong, who flirted with disaster against North Melbourne before Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield lifted them over the line. As Dangerwood goes, so too do the Cats. Melbourne co-captain Jack Viney would love to have a crack at halting one and it will be intriguing to see the tactics adopted by coach Simon Goodwin.

Geelong have relished the ordinary defensive structures of Fremantle and the Kangaroos, but will encounter something different here. The Demons can defend and are capable of hitting targets when exiting their back half. In the absence of Hogan however, one wonders how many goals they can kick.

VERDICT: Geelong by 11 points.

Port Adelaide v Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Ken Hinkley was put on notice before the start of the season by president David Koch, who said a third straight year of no finals football would not be tolerated. Two games into 2017, Port Adelaide have put the whole football world on notice.

Importantly for the Power, they followed their upset win over Sydney with a ruthless display against Fremantle, highlighted by a brilliant start and a brand of football we saw regularly when they stormed into the 2014 preliminary final. It has set the scene for an epic showdown with Adelaide, themselves ultra-impressive against Greater Western Sydney and Hawthorn in the first two weeks.

The Crows’ ability to withstand the best punch Hawthorn could throw at them last Saturday and then win pulling away despite being reduced to 21 men smacked of a side bursting at the seams with belief. The Rory Sloane-led midfield has been awesome and the forward line is, to pinch a Dwayne Russell saying, “scary good”.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 20 points.

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs, Domain Stadium, 5.40pm

A grand total of 120 minutes. That is all that separates Fremantle and another season of oblivion. There can be no other conclusion to be drawn in the wake of two horrid weeks to start 2017. Unfortunately for the out-of-answers Ross Lyon and his players, their opponents this week just happen to be the reigning premiers.

The Western Bulldogs are everything Fremantle aren’t — skilful, confident, cohesive and brave with their ball movement. All the good sides are able to respond to challenges in the course of game, with the ability to kick goals in clumps invaluable. The Bulldogs have done that in the opening two weeks to break the hearts of Collingwood and Sydney.

If the Bulldogs are able to impact the scoreboard early and place sufficient forward pressure on the bumbling Dockers defence, the turnovers that have plagued Lyon’s men will come again. From there, it is just a matter of how dialled in the premiers are.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 34 points.

Sunday, 9 April

St Kilda v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

St Kilda did everything but win against West Coast last Saturday night. It was a plucky display by the Saints after their poor first-up effort and anything resembling what was produced in Perth will be enough to take down Brisbane, who have been solid themselves in the opening two weeks.

Seb Ross has always been a player of immense talent and it was impossible to ignore his influence against the Eagles. He will need to step up again and though Jack Steven (punctured lung) will miss, he should be assisted by the returning David Armitage.

The Lions have a solid midfield group of their own, led by Dayne Beams and Dayne Zorko, but they just don’t possess the options forward of centre St Kilda boast. At their preferred venue, Etihad Stadium, an attack of Tim Membrey, Paddy McCartin, Josh Bruce, Mav Weller and Jack Lonie represent real danger for the inexperienced Lions defence.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 32 points.

Carlton v Essendon, MCG, 1.20pm

Essendon were more impressive in week one than they were against Brisbane last weekend. But the AFL ladder is full of numbers, not pictures, and the number that counts most for Bombers fans is the 2 in the win column. Barring something going horribly wrong here, that figure should be 3 at the end of this match.

The Bombers will be bolstered by the return of No.1 ruckman Matthew Leuenberger, further strengthening an on-ball division that is finding plenty of the football. Question marks surround the fitness of Blues young gun Patrick Cripps (fractured jaw), placing added pressure if he doesn’t line up on Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs.

A real issue for Carlton last season and again this year was their lack of potency in attack. The fact that Matthew Wright is their leading goal kicker is not sustainable in terms of success. At the other end of the ground, Essendon possess a dangerous and in-form goalsneak in Orazio Fantasia, but more importantly, key forward Joe Daniher.

VERDICT: Essendon by 25 points.

Gold Coast v Hawthorn, Metricon Stadium, 2.40pm

One could argue that a contest between two 0-2 teams, including one that has never taken flight and more importantly doesn’t look like it will any time soon, has never held so much appeal. Hawthorn didn’t envisage they would be winless after the opening two rounds, but are clearly in better shape than their opponents Gold Coast.

The Suns were insipid against Greater Western Sydney last weekend, with Gary Ablett resembling a sulking teenager en route to a listless 16 possessions. If Ablett wants to ensure his reputation isn’t tarnished, he needs to lead from the front, even though he is no longer in the club’s leadership group.

Gold Coast were smashed around the football by GWS and though the Hawks aren’t as efficient at stoppages and then exiting them as they were when Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis were in the line-up, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara can still find the football. If they do so again, the Hawks’ forwards will do the rest.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 35 points.

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