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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Week 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Collingwood v Melbourne, MCG, 5.20pm

How wet is too wet? That is the question being asked regarding Collingwood’s qualifying final hopes against a Melbourne side that will seemingly relish inclement conditions that have been forecast. Whilst there is no denying the Magpies would prefer a fine evening, they aren’t legless in the wet.

The return of Darcy Moore from a hamstring injury is significant. At his best, he is an elite intercept defender with the ability to make his teammates far more effective. Collingwood love to generate scores from their back half and Moore is a key plank in that approach.

This Melbourne team is built to succeed in September, having been established around winning contests and defending first and foremost. Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver, Jack Viney, Steven May and Jake Lever are central to that. We don’t know for sure what the Melbourne weather will dish up, but we can expect these two teams to be involved in a fierce battle.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

FRIDAY

Carlton v Sydney, MCG, 5.50pm

Even if you don’t follow Carlton, you have to admit that the finals are better with the Blues involved. And thanks to a resurgence in the second half of the season, achieved off the back of another Coleman Medal-winning season from Charlie Curnow, that is exactly what we are presented with.

Though only eight players on Carlton’s list boast finals experience, there is an expectation they won’t be stopping this week. It’s understandable. The Blues are a force at stoppages where they have a clear advantage over the Swans. However, if Sydney are able to get possession on the outside, Errol Gulden and Chad Warner can wreak havoc.

If you were looking to identify a player primed to shine in September, Curnow would be the choice for an overwhelming majority. He is at the peak of his powers, boasts enormous self-belief and has all the tools to befuddle the opposition. Over to you, Charlie.

VERDICT: Carlton to win

SATURDAY

St Kilda v GWS, MCG, 1.20pm

Anywhere, any time. It was the mantra which Fremantle operated under Ross Lyon. Unsurprisingly, it is the same approach adopted by St Kilda in the lead-up to this elimination final against GWS. Everything you have read about the Saints is they are ready to hit the MCG at full tilt, even though many Saints fans would have preferred the match to be at their home ground, Marvel Stadium.

It is a narrative designed to reinforce positive thoughts. Again, it is a smart move. The Giants are humming and under Adam Kingsley, have met nearly every challenge thrown their way, be it personnel or the host of venues they’ve played at. With a skipper like Toby Greene, that is no shock.

Appointed All-Australian captain last week, Greene will put GWS on his back. How far can he carry them? The market says beyond the Saints. Expect the miserly defence-first approach of St Kilda to be a stumbling block.

VERDICT: St Kilda to win 

Brisbane v Port Adelaide, Gabba, 5.25pm

Fifty four points. That was what separated these two teams in round one this year and had Port Adelaide kicked accurately instead of 18.18 (126), the final margin could have been closer to 13 to 14 goals.

It’s safe to say that ain’t happening again. The round-one clash was at Adelaide Oval. This tussle takes place at the Gabba where Brisbane are unbeaten all season. Are they at their optimum at present? Probably not. But we all know getting past the Lions in Queensland is one of the most daunting football audits you can be exposed to.

Port have quality through their midfield and it’s important it rises to the top. Failure to do so will see the Power’s defence be exposed to a lot of ball and it’s safe to say that Brisbane possesses the most potent forward set-up in the competition.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 1-39 points

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