Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 23

Posted on August 22, 2019August 23, 2019 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Collingwood v Essendon, MCG, 5.50pm

Essendon assured themselves of a return to the finals with their win over Fremantle last round, but whether they finish seventh or eighth remains to be seen. One thing that isn’t up for debate however, is the Bombers will lose this match if thumped in contested ball like they were by the Dockers.

Collingwood are far more polished than the Dockers and are warming to their work nicely approaching September. The second-half dismantling of Adelaide was a powerful reminder of their class and if they prevail here and the Western Bulldogs take care of the Crows, there is every likelihood these two power clubs will meet again in an elimination final.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 32 points

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SATURDAY

Sydney v St Kilda, SCG, 11.45am

Lance Franklin has had a frustrating season with his body in 2019, but he will finally get the opportunity to achieve the 300-game milestone this week. And he could well run out alongside the departing Kieren Jack and Jarrad McVeigh, bodies permitting.

The occasion will stretch St Kilda, who weren’t horrible last weekend, yet were still run down by Carlton at the MCG. The Saints have improved under Brett Ratten, but they will need to be at their top given the presence of Franklin, coupled with the tight confines of the SCG.

VERDICT: Sydney by 21 points 

North Melbourne v Melbourne, Blundstone Arena, 12.10pm

North Melbourne should round off an encouraging second half to the season with their 10th win for 2019 against a Melbourne side that has lost its way and cannot wait for the year to end.

Ben Brown has a four-goal lead in the Coleman Medal race after his bag of 10 last weekend and will fancy his chances of filling his boots once again opposed to the Demons’ suspect back line. Melbourne will look to farewell Jordan Lewis in style, but need to improve markedly if they are to do so.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 39 points

Geelong v Carlton, GMHBA Stadium, 2.35pm

The devastation on the faces of Geelong players was obvious in the wake of last weekend’s loss to Brisbane at the Gabba. It was a defeat that clearly cut deep. But it shouldn’t matter in the long run. Provided Geelong bounce back here like they should, they will finish either first or second rather than slide any further.

This is a match however that represents more work than it did two months ago courtesy of David Teague’s influence. The Blues compete for four quarters and impact the scoreboard more than they did under Brendon Bolton.

The influence of Blues big man Matthew Kreuzer is undeniable and will ask many questions of the Cats’ following division. That said, the Cats’ midfield has the capacity to rack up big numbers and Chris Scott’s side is clearly a daunting proposition at home.

VERDICT: Geelong by 30 points

Gold Coast v GWS, Metricon Stadium, 5.25pm

Gold Coast’s season from hell is not far from finishing. On what we have seen recently, neither is Greater Western Sydney’s. The Giants should win this match, but unless there is a seismic form shift, they will exit September in the first week.

Leon Cameron’s team has not kicked a goal in the second half in the past fortnight, a staggering statistic given the elite level of talent at his disposal, even taking into account the Giants’ extensive injury list. Though it isn’t at full throttle, the GWS engine room has a great deal more grunt than what the Suns can muster.

VERDICT: GWS by 45 points

West Coast v Hawthorn, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

West Coast are fully understanding that the path to this year’s grand final will now ask more of them than last season. The narrow loss to Richmond at the MCG last weekend ensures they are likely to be on the road in the opening week of September.

In all likelihood however, they will need to take care of Hawthorn first to be assured of a top-four berth. It shouldn’t be an issue. Yes, they were overrun by the Tigers in the second half, but their initial 30 minutes of football against Richmond was as slick as you are going to see. Hawthorn can’t operate at that level.

The Hawks will be without six-goal hero Jarryd Roughead, who retired on Tuesday. His absence leaves the forward line having to manufacture a winning total against an elite Eagles defence in hostile territory. At the other end of the ground, West Coast have multiple options.

VERDICT: West Coast by 38 points

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SUNDAY

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide, Mars Stadium, Ballarat, 11.10am

Having performed so admirably against West Coast in round 21, it was unfathomable to think Adelaide could perform as poorly as they did opposed to Collingwood last weekend.

The second-half capitulation — not the first one we have seen from Don Pyke’s men in 2019 — left the Crows staring at another idle September. They now need to have a comfortable win over the Western Bulldogs to displace Luke Beveridge’s men in the top eight.

The Bulldogs are rolling like few other sides in the competition and their midfield quartet of Jack Macrae, Josh Dunkley, Marcus Bontempelli and Lachie Hunter in rare nick. The speed of the Bulldogs looks too much.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 24 points

Richmond v Brisbane, MCG, 1.20pm

Richmond surged to outright premiership favouritism with their win over West Coast. It is deserved, but as we enter the last round of the home-and-away season, the Tigers are yet to secure their spot in the top four.

Even taking into account Brisbane’s hot form, which has propelled them to the top of the ladder, Richmond will feel comfortable matching up against the Lions, who they host at their preferred MCG and have beaten in their past 12 meetings.

The form of Dustin Martin of late has rekindled memories of his all-conquering 2017 campaign and with skipper and fellow Brownlow medallist Trent Cotchin knocking on the door in his return from a hamstring strain, the Tigers look well placed to set themselves up for another tilt at the flag.

VERDICT: Richmond by 21 points 

Port Adelaide v Fremantle, Adelaide Oval, 2.40pm

It’s hard to decide which of the South Australian teams were more insipid last weekend. Adelaide or Port Adelaide? The Power were blitzed early by North Melbourne and then turned up their toes, all but ending their finals aspirations.

Fremantle hit town after a momentus week — for all the wrong reasons. The sacking of Ross Lyon and Steve Rosich shocked the players, who must now re-focus ahead of a match that means little under the guidance of an interim coach (David Hale) who won’t be at the helm in 2020. It has disaster written all over it.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 44 points

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