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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 23

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Port Adelaide v Essendon, Adelaide Oval, 5.50pm

Port Adelaide enter this match praying for a miracle. If they win and Gold Coast upset Geelong the following day down at GMHBA Stadium, the Power will play in September. It’s best they start preparing for Mad Monday.

The Power are banged up and bereft of confidence, as was evidenced against Collingwood at the MCG last weekend. As Port limp to the end of the regular season, Essendon are steaming to the finish line, enjoying a patch of form that is the best we have seen in John Worsfold’s time at the club.

The Bombers were terrific against Richmond last Friday night and a repeat of that effort here will be enough to get over the top of the Power. Brendon Goddard’s farewell match adds to the occasion from an Essendon perspective, while their ability to impact the scoreboard will also trouble the hosts.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points

SATURDAY

Geelong v Gold Coast, GMHBA Stadium, 11.45am

Geelong awoke from a slumber after quarter-time against Fremantle and we all know what transpired from that point. Having monstered a woeful Dockers outfit to clamber back inside the top eight, thanks to a dominant midfield performance, it is unfathomable to think they will squander the opportunity they have created.

Gold Coast were very competitive against Brisbane, appearing to treat the Q-Clash as their grand final. They now have to find a way to mirror that intensity in hostile surrounds at a venue that hasn’t been kind to them. The Suns simply don’t have the firepower on any line to remotely trouble the Cats.

VERDICT: Geelong by 79 points

Richmond v Western Bulldogs, MCG, 12.10pm

Richmond proved why they are the raging favourites for this year’s premiership with a fighting win against an in-form Essendon last round. The Tigers were without several key players, notably captain Trent Cotchin, Dion Prestia and Kane Lambert, but still found a way to prevail.

Lambert will miss again, but the skipper and Prestia are expected to be available for a midfield battle that will be critically important to the result. The Bulldogs’ on-ball division has been running up big numbers of late, which has coincided with a mini surge late in the season by Luke Beveridge’s side.

Marcus Bontempelli carried a back injury into last week’s win over Carlton and received another knock to it, casting doubt on his availability. If Bontempelli is available, the Bulldogs are the roughest of hopes of causing an upset. If he is missing, they are none.

VERDICT: Richmond by 29 points

Fremantle v Collingwood, Optus Stadium, 2.35pm

For a game that has very little bearing on where Fremantle will finish, this encounter contains a great deal of interest. Collingwood will be desperate to win, knowing a solid victory and other results going their way — notably West Coast and Hawthorn losing — will virtually assure them of a top-two spot.

As for the Dockers, they need to save face. Ross Lyon oversaw a horror show down at Geelong last weekend and the last thing he and the club’s board can afford to stew over throughout the off-season is another insipid performance. They will surely be more desperate this weekend, but to think that desperation will overcome a side as skilled and clinical as Collingwood is fanciful.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 32 points

Carlton v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

Carlton fans haven’t had a lot to cheer about in 2018, but would certainly go home happy if their side can unveil more “green shoots” in an upset of Adelaide. It might take a season-best effort to achieve that however, and as the year has gone on, the banged-up and youthful Blues have fatigued.

Adelaide were a long way removed from their best against North Melbourne, but still held on. Matt Crouch was brilliant once again at the coalface and his ball-winning ability is sure to have featured prominently in Carlton’s pre-match planning … and Ed Curnow as his likely opponent for the final two hours of football for both clubs.

The Blues don’t kick enough goals, but in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow they have two quality key forwards in the making. And if speculation is to be believed, they might be joined in 2019 by current Crow Mitch McGovern.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 21 points

Sydney v Hawthorn, SCG, 5.25pm

Sydney continue to defy the odds. There can be no other way to describe it. Seemingly on their knees in the wake of horrible back-to-back losses to Gold Coast (home) and Essendon (away), they have beaten finals-bound Collingwood, Melbourne and Greater Western Sydney to be in contention for a double chance.

Standing between them and two bites of the cherry in September (West Coast’s match against Brisbane aside) is Hawthorn, who have also resuscitated their campaign with a strong second half of the season. The Hawks are also a long way removed from the team that was humbled by Brisbane at its Launceston fortress.

These two sides have been involved in some dramatic encounters in recent times and there is nothing to suggest otherwise here, even taking into account the availability of Lance Franklin. Both teams defend stoutly when they face each other and it could well be the side that takes its chances when they present. In Luke Breust and Jack Gunston, Hawthorn do boast two quality finishers.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 10 points

SUNDAY

Brisbane v West Coast, Gabba, 11.10am

Brisbane fell over the line against Gold Coast as they struggled to handle a tumultuous week and the extra pressure associated with being favourites against their No.1 rivals. They get a free swing here at West Coast, and on what we have seen in 2018, that suits them a lot better.

The Lions are outsiders, but will revel being back at the Gabba and feel they have the leg speed and youth to ask many questions of the Eagles, fresh off a hard-fought loss to Melbourne and still missing Nic Naitanui, Andrew Gaff and Josh Kennedy.

The Eagles are confident Jack Darling will be passed fit to play and his presence is crucial in Kennedy’s absence. Scott Lycett will also be keen to bounce back after being taken to the cleaners by Max Gawn, which is no disgrace. West Coast do have some sore bodies, but they also have a wonderful opportunity to secure a top-two spot with a victory.

VERDICT: West Coast by 18 points

Melbourne v GWS, MCG, 1.20pm

A match which promised to have so much riding on it promises to be very much a run-of-the-mill match. Barring something dramatic occurring on Saturday, Greater Western Sydney will finish outside the top four, while Melbourne’s bid to clinch a finals spot was sealed with their win over West Coast last weekend.

The Demons were criticised in some quarters for celebrating too much in the wake of their win over the Eagles, but the players and officials insisted they were back on point shortly after. How Melbourne perform, especially early, will give everyone a gauge of where their head is at.

In Max Gawn, the Demons have a genuine trump card, a player capable of shaping his side’s fortunes like few others. His influence early against West Coast set the scene and if he is able to back it up, the Demons have a chance to neutralise the star-studded GWS running division.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 8 points

St Kilda v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 2.40pm

In a round where there predictably matches of minimal interest, this one just about takes the cake. St Kilda’s wretched year is nearly over and North Melbourne’s unlikely tilt at September was done and dusted a fortnight ago.

The Saints have very little to be excited about entering 2019 on what we have witnessed this season, while the Kangaroos will be out to finish strongly as they attempt to lure Andrew Gaff and Jared Polec to their midfield in the off-season. Jarrad Waite’s four-year stint, and 16-year career, comes to a close, while Ben Brown will know how many goals he needs to kick to claim the Coleman Medal.

VERDICT: North Melbourne by 20 points

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