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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 20

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Richmond v Geelong, MCG, 5.50pm

Richmond showcased, not for the first time it, their power and precision against Collingwood last Saturday. The Tigers may have been aided by the Magpies’ injury issues, but their ability to go through their gears when needed was again impressive.

Geelong weren’t as slick in their win over Brisbane, but still got the four points they needed, thanks again to Tom Hawkins, who continued his rich vein of form with seven goals. The experienced Cat has enjoyed an outstanding second half to the season and his battle with multiple All-Australian full-back Alex Rance will be worth the price of admission alone.

Cats coach Chris Scott got on the front foot after the win against Brisbane, refusing to accept his charges would be fodder for the Tigers at their MCG fortress. Geelong weren’t embarrassed by Richmond in their first meeting there this season and are unlikely to be this time around. But hanging in and toppling the premiers are two different things.

VERDICT: Richmond by 20 points

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Essendon, MCG, 11.45am

Hawthorn have showed in the past fortnight that their talent and system is still very sound. But dismantling Carlton and Fremantle is a far cry from confronting a red-hot Essendon, their bitter rivals who sense an opening in the lower part of the top eight.

The Hawks jumped the woeful Dockers last Sunday and then controlled the match. Essendon will provide a sterner test from the outset. The Bombers adopted a physical approach early in their game against Sydney and were duly rewarded. It would be a major shock if they deviated from that given the history between the two clubs.

Essendon love to launch attacks off half-back through Conor McKenna and Adam Saad, but the presence of a genuine goal kicker in Luke Breust will demand plenty of attention, while Paul Puopolo is an extremely accomplished defensive forward, who can impact the scoreboard also. Essendon might have left their run too late, but they should still have a pulse at the final siren.

VERDICT: Essendon by 11 points

Brisbane v North Melbourne, Gabba, 11.45am

North Melbourne revived their finals aspirations with a clinical win over West Coast last Sunday. They now need to cash in on that achievement in Hobart when they head north to tackle a dangerous Brisbane at the Gabba.

The Lions asked plenty of Geelong last weekend. Indeed, they have asked plenty of many teams this season, especially at their home ground where they like to freewheel and run opponents off their legs. That is an issue for the Kangaroos, who would prefer to beat their rivals on the inside with big-bodied midfielders and defence as opposed to all-out attack.

Todd Goldstein had his way with Scott Lycett in the ruck last round and from there, the Kangaroos’ midfielders were devastating, notably Ben Cunnington and Paul Ahern. The loss of Shaun Higgins, their best player, is a major worry and it would be a surprise if Stefan Martin was put to the sword by Goldstein.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 17 points

Adelaide v Port Adelaide, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

Adelaide skipper Taylor Walker has spent a lot of time this year talking the talk. Rather than flap his gums and puff his chest out, he would be best served to have a look at Charlie Dixon’s game against the Western Bulldogs last weekend. Dixon hasn’t exactly had a stellar season, but his willingness to present and be physical when required was undeniable and Port Adelaide were a better unit because of it.

The Power desperately needed to overcome the Bulldogs after being outclassed and outworked by Fremantle and Greater Western Sydney and can entrench themselves in the top eight with another victory over their arch enemy.  Adelaide’s faint finals hopes were extinguished with their loss to Melbourne and the health of the group leaves them vulnerable, even taking into account the feelgood story of Brodie Smith’s return.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 21 points

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 5.25pm

Entering this season, St Kilda were expected to challenge for the top eight and the Western Bulldogs were expected to spike significantly after a premiership hangover in 2017. Entering this match, fans from the other 16 clubs couldn’t care less.

The Saints have been better in the back half of the season. They were competitive for the opening two quarters opposed to Greater Western Sydney last weekend, but their forward-line woes came back to haunt them in the final 60 minutes. Talking of woes, the Bulldogs’ inability to score, combined with their poor defensive numbers, have made them fodder over the past month. Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge would need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to engineer an upset.

VERDICT: St Kilda by 34 points

Sydney v Collingwood, SCG, 5.25pm

Sydney’s inability to perform any near the level we have come to expect from Sydney sides for the best part of two decades is clear for all to see. Last Friday night’s loss to Essendon was their fourth from their past five matches, a sequence of results that seriously jeopardises their September hopes.

In years gone by, the Swans would take some comfort from being back at home. However, they have lost five matches at the SCG this season and at their most recent outing there, were beaten by Gold Coast, who subsequently lost to wooden spoon favourites Carlton. Go figure.

Collingwood continue to defy the odds to remain in the hunt for a top-four spot. They battled bravely against Richmond last weekend and though they came up short, lost no admirers. Their ability to defend strongly will be tested in the absence of knee victims Lynden Dunn and Matt Scharenberg, but Nathan Buckley’s players are far more trustworthy at present than Sydney.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 15 points

SUNDAY

Carlton v GWS, Etihad Stadium, 11.10am

Carlton’s season from hell looked like continuing at Metricon Stadium last Saturday night when they conceded the first three goals to Gold Coast. But the Blues dug deep, won a series of crucial contests to stay in touch and then powered away to record only their second victory of the season. Importantly, Patrick Cripps again led the way, while the “green shoots” coach Brendon Bolton continually talks about were visible.

Now for the real test. Greater Western Sydney are zeroing in on a top-four spot and will be bolstered in their pursuit of a double chance by the return from suspension of Jeremy Cameron. The imposing spearhead will hit this match fresh and is sure to ask much of the depleted Blues defence if his teammates further afield showcase the class and ball winning we have seen regularly in the past two months.

VERDICT: GWS by 49 points

Melbourne v Gold Coast, MCG, 1.20pm

From utter despair to unbridled joy. That was the fluctuation in emotions Melbourne felt in the space of seven days. Gutted after coughing up a big three-quarter-time lead to lose to Geelong, the Demons made amends with a stirring win in Jordan Lewis’ 300th appearance against Adelaide last Saturday night.

With one hand on the club’s first finals berth since 2006, it is imperative that co-captain Nathan Jones and his leadership group drive home the importance of this match. And the Demons must not only grind Gold Coast, missing both their co-captains Tom Lynch (knee) and Steven May (suspension), they need to obliterate them in order to boost their percentage. Such a scenario is very much on the cards.

VERDICT: Melbourne by 60 points

West Coast v Fremantle, Optus Stadium, 2.40pm

One would hope this match is to West Coast’s liking. On face value, the elements, travel and opponent last Sunday — cold, Blundstone Arena and North Melbourne — weren’t. The absence of Josh Kennedy and Luke Shuey didn’t help, but the Eagles downed tools far too quickly.

As for Fremantle, their tools simply don’t work. Haven’t done for some time now. The Dockers’ skill errors have plagued them for what seems an eternity, yet Ross Lyon and his fellow coaches are no closer to solving the riddle. Or establishing a functioning forward line for that matter.

Kennedy will miss again, but Shuey returns to bolster the midfield. In years gone by, Fremantle felt if they halved the on-ball battle, they were a chance of beating West Coast. They will need to do better than that here given the weapons the Eagles have in their attacking half.

VERDICT: West Coast by 40 points

Glendinning-Allan Medal: Luke Shuey

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