Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 18

Posted on July 18, 2019 | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

Adelaide v Essendon, Adelaide Oval, 5.50pm

Adelaide rebounded like they needed to last round when they pummelled Gold Coast at Metricon Stadium, a result that took on greater significance given Essendon’s surge continued earlier that day with a stirring win over North Melbourne.

The Bombers are arguably the form side of the competition at present, but haven’t travelled well interstate for some time now, making this assignment a critical one for John Worsfold as the final month of the home-and-away campaign approaches.

Essendon’s ability to expose North Melbourne once the ball got outside the contest was telling and if there is a criticism of the Crows’ midfielders, it is their inability to spread like the better sides. That said, the Bombers are 0-3 outside Victoria this season and the Crows in SA remain a difficult test.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 11 points

---

SATURDAY

Richmond v Port Adelaide, MCG, 11.45am

In the face of adversity earlier this season, Richmond stood up. We shouldn’t be surprised. But for a bad couple of hours in the preliminary final last year, they would have started raging favourites to win back-to-back flags.

The return of Jack Riewoldt last weekend and his combination with Tom Lynch brought smiles to the faces of all Richmond fans. Importantly also, Trent Cotchin continues to find his groove, aided by some fresh faces through the midfield that enables Damien Hardwick’s side to storm towards a top-four berth.

Port Adelaide lose their way every second week. On what we have seen, this is a match they will win. But the absence of Ollie Wines (thumb), Ryan Burton (hamstring) and Brett Ebert (knee) hurts.

VERDICT: Richmond by 42 points

Carlton v Gold Coast, Marvel Stadium, 12.10pm

Interim coach David Teague is making a strong fist of his chance to land the job full-time, inspiring the listless Blues into a competitive unit, with last weekend’s win over Sydney at the SCG further proof of his influence.

Sadly, the same praise cannot be attributed to Gold Coast coach Stuart Dew or his Suns players. The expansion club is in all sorts of strife. Back-to-back maulings threaten to erode any last bit of self-belief a squad missing an A-grader has. The end to the season can’t come quick enough.

VERDICT: Carlton by 39 points

GWS v Collingwood, Giants Stadium, 2.35pm

The time has come for Greater Western Sydney to make a stand. I think the whole football community is in agreeance with that. The real question however is whether they are capable of doing it.

The Giants don’t want to use their injury crisis as a crutch, but in a perfect world, their centre square at the opening bounce in this match would contain Callan Ward, Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly at the feet of Shane Mumford. But all three midfielders are injured and unavailable.

If GWS want to draw inspiration from an opponent that has defied injuries for most of 2019, it is Collingwood. The Magpies have been super to be sitting second at this stage of the season given the adversity they have faced. The latest loss of Darcy Moore (hamstring) hurts, but the expected return of Taylor Adams helps offset Scott Pendlebury (finger) being forced to watch on.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 6 points

Brisbane v North Melbourne, Gabba, 5.25pm

Brisbane couldn’t have made a bigger statement in the past fortnight if they had tried. Telling victories away from home against Greater Western Sydney and Port Adelaide have propelled them to third spot and have many now wondering whether they can go all the way.

North Melbourne have left themselves a great deal to do with their loss to Essendon, a slip-up that couldn’t be blamed on Ben Brown, whose strong second half of the year has been made possible by interim coach Rhyce Shaw’s willingness to take the game on.

In form, Brown is a formidable opponent, but his likely opponent here, Brisbane full-back Harris Andrews, is a star and makes life tough for his rivals. As do the Lions as a unit when they are not in possession of the football.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 20 points

Fremantle v Sydney, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

Fremantle coach Ross Lyon gives the impression he is bullet-proof. Make no mistake, he has a tough exterior. But the constant criticism, analysis of his game plan and speculation about his future is taking its toll.

The Dockers have slid from 7-5 to 7-9 and need to arrest the slump immediately if they are to avoid a fourth successive season outside the finals. The absence of experienced heads Lance Franklin and Jarrad McVeigh, plus the inability to select a proven ruckman, leaves Sydney at the mercy of the Dockers.

Sydney are much like Fremantle in that they struggle to score, but the likelihood of an arm-wrestle in conditions which will ask much of players from both sides should ensure this is a close contest.

VERDICT: Fremantle by 4 points

---

SUNDAY

Geelong v Hawthorn, MCG, 11.10am

In years gone by, even earlier this season, this is a match that always attracted a great deal of interest — and for good reason given the rivalry that exists between the two sides.

Despite winning their past two, Hawthorn are a long way removed from the force we have become accustomed to. Simply, they need to find several lengths on what we witnessed against Fremantle last weekend.

Geelong weren’t ultra-impressive against St Kilda, but they withstood early heat before turning the screws themselves. Their experience through the midfield should overpower Hawthorn’s running division and the Cats’ defensive mechanisms will make life tough for raw-boned Mitchell Lewis.

VERDICT: Geelong by 30 points

Melbourne v West Coast, Traeger Park, 1.20pm

It is difficult to comprehend these two sides squared off inside a heaving Optus Stadium late last September for the right to advance to the grand final. Melbourne have been dreadful in 2019. So dreadful in fact that if they lose here and Carlton win, they will drop to 17th.

West Coast coughed up a golden opportunity to snare second with their loss to Collingwood and head to Alice Springs without Nic Naitanui to square off against the best ruckman in the game, Max Gawn, and quality small forward Jamie Cripps (adductor).

The Demons’ midfield has been more miss than hit this year, but it has shown an ability on numerous occasions to be proficient around the stoppages. That is an area where West Coast were exposed in the second half against Collingwood.

VERDICT: West Coast by 19 points

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs, Marvel Stadium, 2.40pm

Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge could have been excused for shaking his head this week when it was announced St Kilda and Alan Richardson had parted ways, and Brett Ratten would be installed as interim coach.

Carlton beat Brisbane earlier this year in their first game for caretaker coach David Teague, while North Melbourne stunned Richmond under the maiden appearance for interim mentor Rhyce Shaw. The Bulldogs have been making good progress of late and cannot afford a slip-up.

The performance midfield of Josh Dunkley in the win over Melbourne was one of the best we have seen all season. There has never been a shortage of class in that area of the ground in recent seasons for the Bulldogs, but finishing off the work in front of goal has been.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 11 points

Market Market