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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 13

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Sydney v St Kilda, SCG, 5.10pm

You are only human if you have trust issues with Sydney. To be fair, the same applies to St Kilda, their round-13 opponent in a match with top-eight implications.

The Saints limped to their mid-season bye, losing to Hawthorn in round 11 to cap off a bleak month of football. Sydney were victorious in round 11 (against Carlton), backing up a fortunate win over North Melbourne the week prior. Importantly for the Swans however, reinforcements are coming.

And on a night when Lance Franklin celebrates his 350th appearance, emotions will be high in the Harbour City. But the Saints sit inside the top eight after a solid start to Ross Lyon’s second stint at the helm and should be suited by the tight confines of the SCG, especially with Luke Paker missing through suspension.

VERDICT: St Kilda to win

FRIDAY

Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

Very little separated these teams when they met earlier in the season. Port Adelaide, thanks to four last-quarter goals, were able to overcome a three-quarter-time deficit and prevail by 14 points.

That match took place at Adelaide Oval, a venue where the Power are proving extremely tough to stop. They are now back in Melbourne at the Bulldogs’ preferred place of business, Marvel Stadium.

The key indicators from last weekend’s loss to Geelong were sound enough for Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge. Their care with the ball was not. If they are able to find it as often as they have for the most part of this season and execute with more precision, a minor upset could be on the cards.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs to win

SATURDAY

Hawthorn v Brisbane, MCG, 11.45am

James Sicily was heroic in Hawthorn’s round-11 win over St Kilda. Unfortunately though he was also suspended for a week for an unnecessary act in the same game. The result? Hawthorn being gorged by Port Adelaide last weekend.

Sicily’s return here can’t come quick enough. The potent Brisbane attack has troubled better backlines than what the Hawks possess and if the Lions’ midfield division is as prolific as we have come to expect, a big total is in the offing.

Brisbane know they are in a battle with Port Adelaide for second position on the table and two home finals. This is simply must-win.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win by 25 points or more

Adelaide v West Coast, Adelaide Oval, 2.35pm

A formidable outfit on home soil opposed to an injury-ravaged opponent winless since round two. On that basis, it is easy to see why Adelaide have been installed the shortest of short-priced favourites against West Coast.

The Crows led by 35 points early in the second term against Gold Coast in Darwin last Saturday night, only to be overrun. The Suns in the Top End represent a far sterner test than the Eagles, who are running low on talent and personnel.

West Coast are confident both Luke Sheuy and Jack Darling return here and while their presence will be appreciated, it is not going to be anywhere near enough.

VERDICT: Adelaide to win by 40 points or more

Fremantle v Richmond, Optus Stadium, 5.25pm

Having revived their season before the mid-season break, Fremantle are presented with a gilt-edged opportunity to strengthen their top-eight credentials on home soil.

And it is one they should be taking care of. Richmond arrive west off a six-day break after expending plenty of energy to get past GWS in Sydney. They are also entitled to be slightly fatigued, both mentally and physically, considering the challenges they have faced in 2023.

The Dockers will be without Sean Darcy and Jaeger O’Meara, but are relatively healthy, not to mention refreshed.

VERDICT: Fremantle -15.5 points at the line

SUNDAY

North Melbourne v GWS, Blundstone Arena, 1.20pm

The snap reaction to North Melbourne’s gallant loss to finals aspirant Essendon last weekend was to see who they played next. Enter GWS. And with the Giants losing to Richmond at home, it seemed a third Kangaroos win was just around the corner.

It might still occur here, but a deeper dive reveals that first-choice midfielders Luke Davies-Uniacke, Jy Simpkin and Hugh Greenwood are unavailable through injury, meaning the options available to Brett Ratten aren’t as plentiful as he would like.

The Giants did a good job to claw their way back into the contest against Richmond, only to stumble late. It’s hard to question their commitment under Adam Kinglsey.

VERDICT: GWS by 1-39 points

Carlton v Essendon, MCG, 5.15pm

The Essendon faithful would love nothing more than for their beloved Bombers to twist the knife further into Carlton. Blues fans would just like a win … regardless of who they are playing or how it is achieved.

Despite Carlton’s good recent record against Essendon and the market suggesting this is a line-ball clash, it would be a shock if Brad Scott’s charges didn’t continue their march towards long-awaited September action. They boast stronger formlines than their bitter rivals and are also kicking totals which appear beyond Carlton.

The Blues’ inability to move the ball with any level of efficiency is hurting, as is their goal-front inaccuracy. Michael Voss desperately needs a win. He might have to wait until later in the month.

VERDICT: Essendon to win

MONDAY

Melbourne v Collingwood, MCG, 1.20pm

From very early on last weekend, it was obvious Jordan De Goey was going to be watching this match from the grandstand. It is a blow for Collingwood as they front up to a Melbourne side which does boast plenty of grunt midfield.

But can the Demons score as freely as they need to opposed to a Collingwood defence which can be really miserly, but also extremely adventurous on the way out?

The wise men at Champion Data are adamant that Melbourne’s game is in good shape. They are rarely wrong. The same praise could be directed at the bookmakers, who have the Demons in the market here.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

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