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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 11

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

FRIDAY

North Melbourne v Richmond, Marvel Stadium, 5.50pm

North Melbourne will front up with a new coach in Rhyce Shaw for the first time since the Brad Scott era came to a close, but it is unlikely to make any difference against a Richmond side that is starting to roll.

The Tigers are building nicely into their 2019 campaign, with the efforts of their lively small forwards, in particular WA’s Liam Baker, a contributing factor. Dustin Martin has also rediscovered his mojo in recent weeks, making Damien Hardwick’s men all the more formidable.

The Kangaroos won a shootout against the Western Bulldogs last Saturday, but they won’t be allowed the same latitude here. Of most interest is whether Shaw has had enough time this week to put his stamp on the game plan.

VERDICT: Richmond by 28 points

SATURDAY

Collingwood v Fremantle, MCG, 11.45am

Collingwood flirted with disaster against Sydney last Friday night, only to stand up when it mattered, despite the loss of Daniel Wells shortly after half-time compounding a line-up already missing key players.

It is the Magpies’ depth through the midfield and the flexibility at coach Nathan Buckley’s disposal that has last year’s runners-up in a commanding spot approaching the halfway mark of the season.

Brodie Grundy services a blue-chip midfield, an area of the ground that Ross Lyon and his coaching staff would have spent considerable hours planning for. In Nat Fyfe, Michael Walters and David Mundy, Fremantle aren’t bereft of stars. It’s just their support cast isn’t as long as Collingwood’s.

VERDICT: Collingwood by 38 points

GWS v Gold Coast, Giants Stadium, 11.45am

Greater Western Sydney enjoyed a breakthrough victory at the MCG last Sunday against Melbourne, but their poor last quarter will ensure they won’t play nice when they get back to familiar surrounds here.

And that spells bad news for Gold Coast, who continue to compete strongly most weeks but come up short purely because of a lack of talent. That dearth of class is evident forward of centre, with the Suns the lowest-scoring team in the competition.

At the other end of the ground, GWS boast the Coleman Medal leader Jeremy Cameron and a host of other dangerous attacking options, including Jeremy Finlayson and Toby Greene.

VERDICT: GWS by 54 points

Geelong v Sydney, GMBHA Stadium, 2.35pm

Interstate sides playing in Geelong go about as well together as beer and ice cream. Unless you are Sydney, who have made light of the narrow venue to win at their past three visits.

It would be a major shock if that figure read four at the final siren. Even taking into account the presence of Lance Franklin and Sam Reid’s welcome return to form against Collingwood, coupled with Gary Ablett’s absence, it’s hard to see how the young Swans topple the ladder leaders.

Geelong will be boosted by the availability of Patrick Dangerfield, while their willingness to defend from the front half in 2019 has been a massive bonus. Don’t be surprised if Gary Rohan turns it on also against his former side.

VERDICT: Geelong by 43 points

Brisbane v Hawthorn, Gabba, 5.25pm

We will get a real insight into Brisbane’s maturity and an inkling on just how far they may go in 2019 in this clash with Hawthorn. Had the Lions taken their chances in front of goal against Fremantle, they could easily have been 7-3.

Instead, they were overrun late and now front up to a Hawks side with a 6-4 record and well aware that, for all their good work this season, have been unable to establish a sizeable buffer between themselves and the chasing pack.

Harris Andrews was outstanding against the Dockers, but it could be argued he doesn’t have a logical match-up here, with Jack Gunston (six goals) the hero against Port Adelaide in Launceston last Saturday. The Hawks are dangerous, but the Lions are a tough nut to crack at the Gabba.

VERDICT: Brisbane by 18 points

Melbourne v Adelaide, TIO Stadium, Darwin, 5.40pm

You only have to look at last week’s games involving these two sides to get an illustration of why they sit where they do on the ladder, and at the same time frustrate their supporters.

For three quarters against Greater Western Sydney, Melbourne were putrid. In the final term, they got to work midfield and attacked with purpose to boot seven goals. As for Adelaide, a five-goal third-quarter lead against West Coast ended up in a two-goal defeat … at home!

So how do you decipher who wins here? Perhaps the best way forward is exactly that — looking at the forward lines of the respective clubs. The Crows aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut, but their potency in the attacking half outweighs that of the Demons. In a game where goals could be at a premium, that could be decisive.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 16 points 

SUNDAY

St Kilda v Port Adelaide, Shanghai, 12.20pm

For the second successive week, Port Adelaide are on the road. But the extremes couldn’t be any more pronounced. Last Saturday, they were in a frigid Launceston, this weekend they step out in a muggy Shanghai for their annual China visit.

That they have been exposed to the surroundings previously is critical. The Power will be in somewhat familiar surrounds, whereas St Kilda will need to adjust on the run if they are to back up last Sunday’s unconvincing win over Carlton.

Port have their injury concerns, with midfielder Tom Rockliff a doubtful starter because of a hamstring issue. The expected return of co-captain Tom Jonas is significant however and it’s reasonable to expect Robbie Gray to be even better again for his first match back last weekend.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 25 points

Essendon v Carlton, MCG, 1.20pm

John Worsfold can keep talking about patience and his past experience in what it takes to build a successful football club, but he needs to be aware that failing to meet expectations in 2019 will prove fatal to his long-term aspirations.

The Bombers have disappointed big time this season, even taking into account their injuries to key personnel, and the heat will only rise if they cannot get over the top of arch rivals Carlton, themselves in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons.

The Blues had chances to topple St Kilda last weekend, but their field kicking and overall skill level was deplorable. It’s hard to see them turning that around in the space of a week in what promises to be a defensive grind.

VERDICT: Essendon by 16 points

West Coast v Western Bulldogs, Optus Stadium, 3.20pm

Lost in the wash of Brad Scott’s final day in the coaches’ box last Saturday, was the poor performance of the Western Bulldogs. Luke Beveridge’s side has now lost to Gold Coast, Carlton and the Kangaroos this season.

Bearing that in mind, how could the Bulldogs possibly take down West Coast? Granted, it’s a two-horse race and anything is possible, but the premiers are riding a four-game winning streak and have a resolve about them that the Bulldogs displayed in 2016, but have shown only sparingly since.

The contributions of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Jamie Cripps last weekend against Adelaide was first-rate, as was the effort midfield of Luke Shuey, Jack Redden, Elliot Yeo and Andrew Gaff. The Eagles should hit the halfway stage of the year at 8-3.

VERDICT: West Coast by 41 points

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