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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Round 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 4.30pm

To say it has been somewhat of a disrupted pre-season (on and off the field) at Carlton is a massive understatement. To say it influences the result in this encounter would be a significant reach.

The Blues are in finals mode. Richmond are in rebuilding mode, some would even say survival mode. They are going to cop some frightful hidings in 2025 and it could well start here against a Blues side that is missing key players in all three areas of the ground yet simply has far too much class to be troubled.

The Tigers have made a concerted effort to strip it right back and inject as much young talent into Punt Road before the new Tasmanian side makes its entrance into the competition. In all likelihood, Richmond have a crack early before being worn down by the depth and experience of Carlton, led superbly by dual Brownlow medallist Patrick Cripps.

VERDICT: Carlton to win by 40 points or more @ $1.49

Same Game Multi: Carlton to win by 25 points or more, Blake Acres to have 20+ possessions and Adam Cerra to have 25+ possessions @ $2.95

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

FRIDAY

Hawthorn v Essendon, MCG, 4.40pm

Hawthorn have lived in the spotlight since the back end of last season. It clearly agrees with them if last Friday night’s performance against Sydney at the SCG is any indication.

The addition of Tom Barrass and Josh Battle to the backline gives James Sicily a licence to roam and makes Hawthorn even more potent in attack whilst Mitch Lewis and Calsher Dear recovery from their respective injuries. And it is that defence of the Hawks which promises to be problematic for Essendon.

No Peter Wright leaves much on the plate of teenage duo Nate Caddy and Isaac Kako. Both boast enormous talent, but this is a proper examination on a massive stage.

VERDICT: Hawthorn by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Zach Merrett, Nic Martin and Jai Newcombe to all get 25+ possessions @ $3.45*

SATURDAY

Geelong v Fremantle, GMHBA Stadium, 10.20am

Despite having an impressive record against Geelong at GMHBA Stadium, this assignment was always going to be a daunting one for Fremantle. It became even more so when it was confirmed Shai Bolton, Nat Fyfe and Michael Walters didn’t make the trip.

It has led to impressive first-round draftee Murphy Reid being selected for his AFL debut, albeit in a hostile environment against a Cats midfield boosted undeniably by the acquisition of Bailey Smith.

The Dockers will fancy their chances if a forward line featuring Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Luke Jackson is provided with enough looks, but the Cats in Geelong remain a tough ask.

VERDICT: Geelong to win

Same Game Multi: Tyson Stengle to kick 1+ goals and Josh Treacy to kick 2+ goals @ $2.65*

Sydney v Brisbane, SCG, 1.15pm

Brisbane were meant to have played in Opening Round. Sydney would be wishing they hadn’t played in Opening Round. The loss to Hawthorn last Friday night raises the stakes here for the hosts, who next week face Fremantle at Optus Stadium.

Lose this one and there is the real prospect that last year’s grand finalists go 0-3 to start 2025. Dean Cox and his players will be desperate to avoid that and should need no extra motivation for this clash given the events of last September.

Brisbane have enjoyed a seamless summer, the setback of Lincoln McCarthy last week aside, and appear anything but a team with a full belly. Their midfield depth shapes as an issue Sydney need to address.

VERDICT: Brisbane to win

Same Game Multi: Brisbane to win and Charlie Cameron to kick 2+ goals @ 3.05*

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne, Marvel Stadium, 4.35pm

Look up the saying “Danger Game” in the dictionary and you will see the time and date of this clash between the Western Bulldogs and North Melbourne, with a circle around the Bulldogs’ logo.

They are banged up and vulnerable. There is no getting away from that. It is just whether the Kangaroos are adept enough at cashing in on a gilt-edged opportunity, especially with doubts surrounding leading goal kicker Nick Larkey.

The Kangaroos were average in the pre-season game against West Coast. Conversely, the Bulldogs did a super job in the absence of so many stars to take down Hawthorn. Granted, it it is only the pre-season, but that formline is superior to North Melbourne’s.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 1-39 points

Same Game Multi: Western Bulldogs 1-39 points and Harry Sheezel to get 30+ possessions @ $4.30*

Collingwood v Port Adelaide, MCG, 4.35pm

If you needed a gentle reminder at how big a deal Collingwood are and the level of expectation surrounding the club, you only need to reflect on the the western Sydney disaster last weekend at the hands of GWS.

Collingwood might have run into the perfect storm — a fast, hungry and aggressive Giants team running on top of the ground before their home fans. The Magpies return to the MCG and will no doubt benefit from the addition of Dan Houston.

But Port Adelaide have indicated they are going to be full throttle this season in Ken Hinkley’s last year at the helm and will ask much of Collingwood’s leg speed, or perceived lack of. It promises to be a high-octane battle.

VERDICT: Collingwood to win

Same Game Multi: Collingwood to win, game total over 165.5 points and Bobby Hill to kick 2+ goals @ $5.10*

SUNDAY

Adelaide v St Kilda, Adelaide Oval, 9.35am

No excuses. That should be the mantra here for Adelaide as they chase a long-awaited finals berth. The Crows have recruited well, are healthy and at home against an opponent which has had its share of injuries throughout the pre-season and in the past 24 hours ruled out Mitch Owens due to a shoulder issue.

The Crows have access to Riley Thilthorpe from the get-go in 2025 and that is going to ensure this team has a physical presence, coupled with a focal point, that alleviates the responsibility on veteran Taylor Walker. A forward line that has Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Izak Rankine is salivating for Crows supporters.

The Saints aren’t blessed with as much talent and are going to need to have their ears coached off them by Ross Lyon, not only in round one but for most of the season.

VERDICT: Adelaide by 16 points or more

Same Game Multi: Adelaide to win, Rory Laird to have 25+ possessions and Izak Rankine to kick 1+ goals @ $2.30*

Melbourne v GWS, MCG, 12.20pm

Melbourne have gone on the charm offensive over summer, looking to rebuild the relationships that appeared beyond repair in regards to both Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver at the back end of 2024.

That fresh start has also flowed over to selection, with the Demons naming six debutants to face GWS, who underlined their premiership credentials with a pummeling of Collingwood.

The Giants played with a purpose, the scene being set midfield by Finn Callaghan and Josh Kelly. They will again need to be influential in their on-ball battle against the likes of Petracca, Oliver and Jack Viney.

VERDICT: GWS to win

Same Game Multi: Melbourne total points under 79.5 points and Melbourne +21.5 points (pick your own line) @ $3.40*

West Coast v Gold Coast, Optus Stadium, 3.10pm

A week after their false start thanks to Cyclone Alfred, Gold Coast launch their campaign in the west with an opportunity to prove the days of them being fodder away from home are a thing of the past.

A mediocre opponent on a fast ground in sunny conditions looks tailor-made for the Suns. No Mac Andrew is a setback, but Gold Coast still possession sufficient depth and experience.

West Coast will improve as the year goes on under Andrew McQualter, who will be desperately hoping that Jake Waterman is fit enough to take his place and form a powerful one-two punch in attack alongside co-captain Oscar Allen.

VERDICT: Gold Coast to win

Same Game Multi: Tim Kelly and Daniel Rioli to have 25+ possessions @ $2.40*

*Odds correct at the time of publication.

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