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Digby Beacham’s AFL Preview: Finals Week 1

Posted on | Posted by Digby Beacham

THURSDAY

Port Adelaide v Geelong, Adelaide Oval, 5.40pm

Pressure comes in many different forms. But regardless of how you dice it up, both Port Adelaide and Geelong are presented with undeniable pressure entering this match. The Power can propel themselves to 100 minutes of football away from a grand final berth with victory, while Geelong can ease the doubters with a dominant display against a rival they boast an excellent record against.

Conversely, a loss for either side will have many in the industry questioning their legitimacy. If the Cats are able to bring the form they displayed for the bulk of the home-and-away campaign, they can most definitely win. A midfield boasting Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Cam Guthrie, Sam Menegola and Mitch Duncan supplying Tom Hawkins dictates that.

For the hosts, their overall class and experience, even taking into account some of the brash kids they possess, is not to be sneezed at. Charlie Dixon is a beast and will demand much attention, while Tom Rockliff, Travis Boak and Ollie Wines are in excellent nick through the midfield. It promises to be a clinker.

VERDICT: Port Adelaide by 3 points 

FRIDAY

Brisbane v Richmond, Gabba, 5.50pm

There are plenty of other sides Brisbane would love to be lining up against in a qualifying final. A 15-game losing streak against Richmond is reflective of that.

But the Lions are healthy, boosted by the return of All-Australian key defender Harris Andrews and big-bodied midfielder Jarrod Berry, on home soil and know full well what Richmond are going to bring, having played them at the Gabba earlier in the season.

They had their chances on that occasion, as they did in the corresponding match last year. You are not going to be presented with many looks in a contest of this nature, therefore Brisbane need to take them when they arise. If they do not, the manic pressure and undeniable system of Richmond will ultimately take its toll.

VERDICT: Richmond by 12 points

SATURDAY

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs, Gabba, 2.40pm

It seems every neutral football fan is delighted to see St Kilda back in the finals. As much as they are the feelgood story, this match has a heavy Western Bulldogs slant.

The 2016 premiers stormed into the finals last season, only to be dismembered by a physical Greater Western Sydney. Their inability to handle the heat was stark and led many to question whether their high-possession game was actually built for the post-season.

The Saints can also turn up the heat, albeit not in the physical sense of GWS, and have the capacity to hit the scoreboard, as do the Bulldogs. Look for Luke Beveridge’s men to try to use all of the Gabba’s expanses to find a way forward.

VERDICT: Western Bulldogs by 9 points

West Coast v Collingwood, Optus Stadium, 6.10pm

West Coast gave Collingwood the short back and sides when they met earlier this year in Perth. It might be fanciful to think the margin in this game will resemble the 66-point margin of round eight, but this is the Eagles’ match to lose.

They are now back at home and rested up, allowing Adam Simpson to roll the dice regarding several key players. Collingwood employ a brand of football that does stack up in the finals, but their lack of potency forward of centre remains a concern.

At the other end of the ground, Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling, Liam Ryan and Jamie Cripps represent a major headache, especially if Nic Naitanui has his way with Brodie Grundy once more.

VERDICT: West Coast by 21 points

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