Races

Chris Nelson’s Saturday Rosehill Preview

Posted on | Posted by Chris Nelson

RACE 1

1800m Benchmark race to kick off the afternoon where I’m going with the lightly raced RISE TO IT from the Maher/Eustace yard. Yes, he’s taking on stronger company however has more upside than any of his rivals & is in winning form, he’ll park up near the speed & having won over 2000m last start won’t have any trouble keeping going in the straight. Nice weight drop as well. FIRST LIGHT is consistent however wins are few & far between, also likely to give away a start. TOURISTIC & SPITFIRE in the mix.

Numbers: 9 – 6 – 1 – 5

Suggested Bet: RISE TO IT TO WIN (small bet)

RACE 2

2400m may find a few of these out! I’ll lean to CABOCHE who is on the 7-day back up having run 2nd here last Saturday when box seating behind the leader. Out in plenty of time he just lacked the finishing burst however didn’t shirk his task, effective out to this longer trip he appears well suited. FATHER’S DAY got out with a big lead in a recent midweeker & wasn’t for catching, SPEYCASTER started favourite in the same race & couldn’t make up the ground, they meet again here & should figure in the finish once again.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 6 – 9

Suggested Bet: CABOCHE TO WIN (small bet)

RACE 3

SPIRIT QUEEN doesn’t help herself by settling back in her races, the small field may help here & there’s no doubting her first up run was a cracker on the Kensington track zooming home along the inside rail to just miss out in a race not run to suit. Additional 100m definitely in her favour & her form lines through the likes of All That Pizzazz & Ekaterina are strong. EAGLE NEST will be out front, that’s where she’s been both run this prep & not for catching in either, clearly the hardest to beat. MISS HELFIRE may take the run, has the ability though & pay to monitor market moves.

Numbers: 3 – 5 – 1 – 2

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 4

Big field to go around in the Highway, max of 16 starters. Wide open as always, trainer Matt Dunn (aka the Highwayman) knocks up training the winners of these races & he sends around last start Brisbane winner BANDASHA who unfortunately comes up with a car park barrier. I’m going to stick though as that win was solid & with a fair chunk of luck can still figure. Should the emergency BEST INTENT gain a start expect her in the finish, both runs this prep very good, defeated the latest however worked hard wide out on the breeze. Plenty of other hopes however the better ones are mostly drawn very wide.

Numbers: 10 – 21 – 1 – 3

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 5

SHADOWS OF LOVE looks extremely well placed here in the Midway. Two outings back from a break for an unlucky 5th (never in the clear) before solid second up on the Kensington track. Perfectly drawn Tommy Berry should give her the right run & from there she’ll get her chance. VINDICATION every hope this grade last start has to be included again whilst POSEIDON RULER who generally gets back can produce a big finale & didn’t get a lot of room first up.

Numbers: 12 – 5 – 2 – 1

Suggested Bet: SHADOWS OF LOVE TO WIN

RACE 6

Small line-up of mares to go around in the Group 2 Hot Danish. ROYAL MERCHANT is the class runner being a Group 1 winner & coming out of a very strong Invitation last start when unable to get much of a crack at them, clear inside the 150 she wasn’t knocked around by Jason Collett, she should be able to make amends here however I wouldn’t be taking any red figures. CALL DI is so close to a win, she’s been without luck more than once this prep & I could have easily tipped her on top however she’s just too close to ROYAL MERCHANT at the weights. ROOTS the other chance.

Numbers: 1 – 4 – 2 – 7

Suggested Bet: ROYAL MERCHANT (black figures)/Box exacta with CALL DI

RACE 7

Million-dollar race for the early season youngsters where the smart debut winner SHANGRI LA EXPRESS draws very wide. He’s clearly got all rivals covered on what we’ve seen to date however what if he gets posted, perhaps those rivals or one of the debutantes has plenty of ability. For those reasons I couldn’t take a short price about SHANGRI LA EXPRESS however I will leave him as the top tip. VOLATILE could be the improver whilst GRAM looked quite good in his trial.

Numbers: 1 – 5 – 11 – 7

Suggested Bet: Box up top 4 selections in exotics

RACE 8

Can the Queenslander ANTINO bounce back from yet another unlucky defeat last start & nail the two million dollar Five Diamonds? Of course he can! He’s been terrific this prep, yes he’s only won 1 of 4 starts however he’s been luckless twice & beaten an eyelash the other, things should pan out ideally today from the good draw… surely! PALMETTO only just got in last start however he races on speed & I don’t see a lot of runners in this race going forward (on paper), might find himself in the right place/right time. Definite chances DEMOCRACY MANIFEST, WATERFORD etc however how much start will they give away?

Numbers: 3 – 2 – 7 – 12

Suggested Bet: ANTINO TO WIN

RACE 9

GRINGOTTS & ATMOSPHERE the two fancied runners here & both have their detractors. ATMOSPHERE just hasn’t looked too excited to be racing of late & even last start when beaten less than a length it was in a wall of runners with only a length separating the first 6 across the line. GRINGOTTS came with a late surge to win at Randwick, his closing sectionals were strong in a race not run to suit, he seems more genuine at this stage in my opinion.

Numbers: 1 – 2 – 6 – 5

Suggested Bet: GRINGOTTS TO WIN (small bet)

RACE 10

Like the look of the lightly raced GUSTOSISIMO who has gone straight to the front both outings this prep & just cleared out in the run to the line. Yes, this is a harder race however he can only win which he’s been doing & in dominant fashion. The decent weight drop helps with the class rise & if able to slot across will take catching again. PLUNDERING has a good first up record & has trialled well, must be included. CONTEMPORARY can improve second-up.

Numbers: 10 – 4 – 3 – 5

Suggested Bet: GUSTOSISIMO TO WIN

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